US FOMC Member Miran Speaks

Fed's Miran: At this point, I feel that the Fed should be heading to a neutral rate estimated as low as 2.5%. FED GOV MIRAN Q&A: STILL THINK BETTER TO BE FORECAST DEPENDENT RATHER THAN BACKWARD LOOKING DATA DEPENDENT; NOW RATES SHOULD BE AT NEUTRAL, NOT BELOW #Miran #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Miran: Economic growth and the unemployment rate have not been as closely correlated as in the past; causes are uncertain, but could relate to AI. FED GOV MIRAN Q&A: HIGHER ENERGY COSTS ARE A DRAG ON GROWTH AND A RISK; ALSO WILL SEE INVESTMENT IN ENERGY #Miran #FederalReserve #economy

Fed's Miran: At this point might only see three cuts for the rest of the year. Fed's Miran: Even before the war, the underlying composition of inflation was getting more problematic for the Fed. Fed's Miran: Still reasonable to expect core goods price and housing inflation to continue to come down. MIRAN PREDICTS THAT 12-MONTH PCE INFLATION MAY REACH THE 2% TARGET WITHIN A YEAR. MIRAN STATES THERE IS NO SIGN OF A WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL EMERGING AND THAT LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS REMAIN STABLE.

Thank you, Francisco, for the kind introduction. It is an honor to be here at the Economic Club of Miami. Tonight I will talk about a topic too large to ignore: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Like any other bank, the Fed's balance sheet is a record of the assets and liabilities we hold. The assets are primarily Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The liabilities include all U.S. currency in circulation, reserve balances banks hold at the Fed, and the Treasury General Account. The size and composition of these holdings matter because they affect the amount of money in the banking system and influence broader financial conditions. Understanding how the balance sheet functions is essential to understanding how the Fed supports economic stability and conducts monetary policy. Tonight I will discuss the various regimes under which the Fed has operated its balance sheet and explain why, in my view, shrinking the size of the balance sheet is desirable. Next, I will explain why the challenge of shrinking the balance sheet is a solvable one, and then I will discuss potential paths forward toward accomplishing that goal. Finally, I will conclude with the monetary policy implications of such action. FED GOV MIRAN/ECON CLUB MIAMI: AS HARD AS IT IS, IT'S POSSIBLE TO SHRINK THE FED'S BALANCE SHEET WITHOUT RETURNING TO AN ERA A SCARCE RESERVES #Miran #FederalReserve #economy

Fed's Miran: The economy could use additional support from monetary policy. FED'S MIRAN: THE JOB MARKET HAS BEEN ON AN EXTENDED STREAK OF GETTING WEAKER. ... Just in | Fed's Miran: Measurement Challenges Have Alleviated Inflation Concerns. Fed's Miran: Market Inflation Expectations So Far ‘Unmoved’ By Surge In Oil Price - 'Zero Bleed Through' Of Oil Shock Into Inflation Expectations - Says He Doesn't See Wage Price Spiral Forming FED'S MIRAN: FED POLICY IS INCORRECTLY RESTRAINING THE ECONOMY CURRENTLY ...

Fed's Miran: Premature to judge the current situation Fed's Miran: Still not enough clarity to know monetary policy should react to current events. FED'S MIRAN: TRADITIONAL CENTRAL BANK VIEW IS OIL SHOCKS DON'T HIT CORE INFLATION #OOTT Fed's Miran: Second-round effects and wage rises could require rate hike Fed's Miran: Policy outlook remains for rate cuts

MIRAN: I EXPECT TO DISSENT THIS MONTH IF FED DOESN'T CUT RATES FED'S MIRAN: NEUTRAL IS LIKE 2.5% TO 2.75% - WE SHOULD GET THERE, THEN RE-EVALUATE ...