US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

post: BARKIN: `SO FAR SO GOOD' ON SLOWING INFLATION WITHOUT A SLUMP post: Fed's Barkin: We're seeing a lot of uncertainty on the firing side. post: <=USD>:*FED'S BARKIN SAYS 2% INFLATION TARGET HAS WORKED WELL LONG TIME *BARKIN: OPTICS OF MOVING TO A 3% TARGET WOULD HURT CREDIBILITY

post: Fed's Barkin: Government job cuts won't cause volatility in GDP.

post: BARKIN: POLICY SHOULD REMAIN MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE INFLATION WILL RETURN TO TARGET post: Fed's Barkin: I expect upcoming PCE will show a further decline, the Fed has made a lot of progress. post: Fed's Barkin: We will take a wait-and-see approach about how coming policy changes impact the economy. post: Fed''s Barkin: Uncertainty argues for caution in the last stages of the inflation fight.Inflation Then and Now Thanks for that nice introduction and for having me here. I appreciate the chance to trade views on the economy and I look forward to your questions and advice. As always, these views are mine alone and not those of any of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. The Inflation Surge: I thought I might focus today on inflation. When I joined the Fed in January 2018, I’m pretty sure inflation wasn’t on your radar. Why should it have been? We’d had a generation of stable prices, supported by the growth of e-commerce, the rise of globalization, favorable workforce demographics and innovations like the development of fracking. My Fed predecessors also deserve credit; their commitment to an explicit inflation target earned the confidence of businesses and consumers, helping to anchor inflation expectations. If anything, in the years before the pandemic, the concern had been about whether inflation was too low. That seems like a long time ago. You remember what happened next. COVID-19 and the associated shutdowns unleashed a series of material and labor supply shocks. Then, the successful vaccine rollout coupled with excess savings to turbocharge demand. There weren’t enough chips to put into cars, not enough workers to fill jobs, not enough houses to meet people’s desire for mor

post: Fed’s Barkin: Tariffs Not Expected To Result In A Large Reshoring Of US Manufacturing ‘Any Time Soon’ - 12-Month Inflation Numbers Seen Coming Down 'Significantly' In Q1 - Does Not Believe Case For Rate Hike Is Close To A 'Base Case' Right Now - No Indication Of An Economy… post: FED'S BARKIN: THE CASE FOR HIKING WOULD REQUIRE EVIDENCE OF OVERHEATING.

post: FED'S BARKIN: NOT HEARING CEOS TALK ABOUT RECESSION post: BARKIN: CEOS SAY THERE'S SO MUCH POLICY UNCERTAINTY

post: FED'S BARKIN: IT'S DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS. post: BARKIN: UNCERTAINTY GOES BEYOND TARIFFS TO IMMIGRATION, REGULATION, OTHER ISSUES post: BARKIN: STILL LEAN TOWARDS CUTS THIS YEAR post: FED'S BARKIN: I SEE NO SIGN OF THE US ECONOMY OVERHEATING post: BARKIN: WOULD NEVER TAKE ANY POLICY MOVE OFF THE TABLE, BUT HIKES WOULD REQUIRE AN ECONOMY OVERHEATING

post: FED'S BARKIN: INFLATION IS COMING DOWN TOWARDS 2% TARGET post: FED'S BARKIN: I CAN SEE PATHS WHERE INFLATION IS STICKY OR CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE TARGET. post: FED'S BARKIN SAYS HE IS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT OVERHEATING ECONOMY RIGHT NOW; DEMAND IS SOLID BUT NOT BOOMING post: FED'S BARKIN: I WAS ENCOURAGED BY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN DECEMBER. post: FED'S BARKIN: LONG RATES RIGHT NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH EARLY 2000S, WHICH WAS NOT A RESTRICTIVE TIME FOR BUSINESS BEHAVIOR IS MOVING TO PRE-PANDEMIC PATTERNS SAYS HE HAS NOT SEEN ANYTHING IN LONG RATES THAT WOULD INFLUENCE FED POLICY AT THIS POINT