US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Due to speak at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Audience questions expected;
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
FOMC voting member 2018, 2021, and 2024;
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Description |
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Nov 12, 2024 | Due to speak at the Salisbury Wicomico Economic Development, in Maryland. Audience questions expected; |
Nov 12, 2024 | Due to speak at the Baltimore Together Summit. Audience questions expected; |
Oct 23, 2024 | Due to speak at the Virginia Education and Workforce Conference, in Richmond; |
Oct 10, 2024 | Due to participate in a fireside chat about the economic outlook at the Virginia Maritime Association's International Trade Symposium. Audience questions expected; |
Oct 2, 2024 | Due to speak about the economy. Audience questions expected; |
Oct 1, 2024 | Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "A Conversation with the Federal Reserve Presidents" at the Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Audience questions expected; |
Aug 8, 2024 | Due to speak at a webinar hosted by the National Association for Business Economics. Audience questions expected; |
Jul 17, 2024 | Due to speak about the economy, in Maryland. Audience questions expected; |
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- US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks News
Thank you for that kind introduction. I thought I’d use my time to share how I see the economy today and where we may be headed. I caution you these are my thoughts alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. I want to start by calling out the strength of the overall data. Twelve-month headline PCE inflation has come all the way down to 2.1 percent. GDP growth for the third quarter was 2.8 percent, well above its trend rate of just under 2 percent. The unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, near estimates of its natural rate. I don’t want to jinx things, but you have to acknowledge that — as of today — the economy looks pretty good. I think it is fair to say: No one predicted this. When the FOMC raised rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023, a recession was in pretty much everybody’s forecast. The traditional recession indicators were flashing. The yield curve inverted in 2022 and stayed that way for over two years. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index has been negative for 2 1/2 years. Shocks like the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the conflict in the Middle East looked like they would complicate the outlook further. Yet here we are. How did we get here? I’d, of course, love to give the FOMC full credit, and I hope you think our efforts to quiet inflation have post: RICHMOND FED'S BARKIN/BALTIMORE: ECONOMY AND FED POLICY 'IN A GOOD PLACE;' NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY FORECASTS #Barkin #FederalReserve : post: BARKIN: INFLATION MIGHT BE COMING UNDER CONTROL OR MIGHT RISK GETTING STUCK ABOVE FED'S 2% TARGET
Thank you for that kind introduction. I want to spend my time talking about a critical workforce partner: community colleges. Before I jump in, I should caution these are my thoughts alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee or in the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: stable prices and maximum employment. In the interest of both sides of our mandate, we care deeply about labor market balance. What jobs and workers are available in the economy, and how aligned are the two? An Imbalance in the Skilled Trades The segment in which we hear the most imbalance, where available jobs outnumber available qualified workers, is the skilled trades. By skilled trades, I mean jobs in sectors like manufacturing and construction, but also in child care, or even parts of health care — such as nursing. You can also think of veterinary assistants or truck drivers. These positions do not necessarily require a bachelor’s degree, but they do require some education or training beyond a high school diploma. Oftentimes, the requirement is not a preference set by an employer, but a credential or licensing requirement set by regulation. The pandemic recovery exacerbated a preexisting imbalance. Labor demand increased thanks to historic federal investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, the rise of artificial intelligence and private investment in data centers, the growing demand for health care from our aging population, and a collective decision to adopt more pets. At the same time, on the supply side, employers reported a wave of retirements and increased competition from sectors that managed to improve their relative pay, such as leisure and hospitality and warehousing. Even as overall labor market conditions have loosened over the past year, employers in the skilled trades continue to post: FED'S BARKIN DOES NOT COMMENT ON ECONOMY, MONETARY POLICY IN PREPARED REMARKS ON COMMUNITY COLLEGES
post: FED'S BARKIN: INFLATION IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. post: FED'S BARKIN: I SEE RISK THAT LOWER RATES COULD BOOST HOUSING DEMAND.
post: FED'S BARKIN: HALF-PERCENTAGE-POINT RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER WARRANTED BECAUSE RATES WERE 'OUT OF SYNC' WITH DECLINE IN INFLATION AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEAR ITS SUSTAINABLE LEVEL post: BARKIN: FED CAN'T DECLARE INFLATION BATTLE OVER, SAYS HE EXPECTS LITTLE FURTHER DROP IN CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PRICE INDEX UNTIL NEXT YEAR post: BARKIN: HALF PERCENTAGE POINT OF CUTS SHOWN AS THE MEDIAN FED POLICYMAKER PROJECTION FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR WOULD ALSO TAKE 'A LITTLE BIT OF THE EDGE OFF' RATES post: BARKIN: RECENT LABOR ACTION, GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT ALSO AMONG INFLATION RISKSBarkin: Why Not Declare Victory? Thank you for that kind introduction. I thought today I might talk about how I see the economy and where it may be headed. I’ll then turn it over to you, and I look forward to your questions and comments. I should caution that these are my thoughts alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. As you’ve likely seen, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate 50 basis points at our September meeting. This cut came largely because of the progress we’ve made on inflation. Twelve-month headline PCE inflation is now 2.2 percent, well down from its peak of 7.1 percent in June 2022. Core is at 2.7 percent. Near-term inflation expectations are back in line with our 2 percent target. If we look at the most recent data, the inflation picture is even better: Three-month core inflation is only slightly above target at 2.1 percent. Importantly, the decline in inflation appears to be broad-based, not just limited to goods as we had seen previously. Consumers are driving this drop. Frustrated by high prices, they have become increasingly price conscious. They’re still spending, but they’re choosing: trading down from beef to chicken, from sit-down restaurants to fast casual, from brand names to private label. They’re waiting for promotions: opting for the $5 value meal at McDonald’s or jumping on discounts at Target. This is how it is supposed to work! The old saying is that the solution to high prices is high prices. And that’s what we are finally seeing. Their choices are pressuring price-setters to finally moderate price increases. At times, in the past, the FOMC has made such a significant rate cut in response to a troubled economy. Happily, that is not the case today. As inflation has moderated, economic activity has remained robust. GDP came in at 3 percent in the second quarter, a more than healthy growth rate. Consumer spending, which accounts for
post: MORE RICHMOND FED'S BARKIN Q&A/NABE: PEOPLE CUTTING BACK ON THEIR HIRIING, BUT NOT LAYING WORKERS OFF AND STILL HIRING, BUT SLOWER #Barkin #FederalReserve #economy post: FED'S BARKIN: NO HIRING, NO FIRING, THAT'S WHAT WE SEE IN THE DATA, AND FROM HERE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. post: FED'S BARKIN: JOB GROWTH HAS SETTLED DOWN, BUT STILL ADDING JOBS, THERE'S A LOT MORE LABOR SUPPLY THAN WAS THOUGHT A YEAR OR TWO AGO. post: FED'S BARKIN: THE MATH OF THAT SUGGESTS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GOES UP. post: BARKIN: WAGES ARE COMING DOWN, SUGGESTING NORMALIZING IN LABOR MARKET
post: BARKIN URGES FOR CLEARER INFLATION SIGNALS BEFORE RATE CUT post: BARKIN: DATA TO DETERMINE FURTHER MOVES AFTER INITIAL RATE CUT post: BARKIN SAYS FEDERAL RESERVE WELL POSITIONED WITH NECESSARY FIREPOWER FOR JOB
A chorus of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday emphasized the need for more evidence of cooling inflation before lowering interest rates, with a couple policymakers offering insight into the potential timing of such a move. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said it will likely be appropriate for the central bank to cut rates “sometime later this year” if economic conditions unfold as she anticipates. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in his first major policy speech that it could take “quarters” for the data to support a cut. ...
Federal Reserve officials, encouraged by recent data, are looking for more confirmation that inflation is sustainably cooling and for any warning signs from a still-strong labor market as they steer cautiously toward a potential policy easing later this year. "I expect interest rates to come down gradually over the next couple of years, reflecting the fact that inflation is coming back to our 2% target and the economy is moving in a very strong sustainable path," New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday in an interview on ...
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