US FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

Thank you, Baiju, for that kind introduction. And thanks to the 50 Club of Cleveland for kicking off the discussions to make this event a reality, to the Greater Cleveland Partnership, for helping organize this event with us, and to the City Club for hosting us today. I am going to start by looking back at history—my own. As an aspiring history and economics major in high school in the late 1980s, I myself might qualify as ancient history at this point. But I want to take you back to 1988: Ronald Reagan was president, you may have been carrying around a pager, and Browns’ quarterback Bernie Kosar was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated. A hip-hop song called “It Takes Two” by Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock was playing on the radio. If you didn’t hear, Rob Base passed away recently, so this song has been top of mind. In case you need a reminder, the refrain goes, “It takes two to make a thing go right. It takes two to make it outta sight.” I apologize for my singing voice and my questionable taste in music. And because I’m pretty sure the musical preferences of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee are substantially better than my own, I’ll point out that these are only my views, musically and otherwise. What I’m not going to apologize for is that song playing on a loop in your head for the rest of the day, because I want you to use it to re FED'S HAMMACK SAYS IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. FED OFFICIAL HAMMACK EXPRESSES MAIN CONCERN ABOUT INCREASING RISK OF LONG-LASTING INFLATION PRESSURES. Fed's Hammack: Worried monetary policy may not be tight enough to lower inflation. Fed's Hammack remains firmly committed to getting inflation back to 2%.

CLEVE FED'S HAMMACK Q&A/COLUMBUS: UNCERTAINTY ABOOUT THE ECONOMY TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MONPOL; HAVE A 'STRANGE BALANCE' IN JOBS; INFL KEY #Hammack #FederalReserve #economy Fed’s Hammack Emphasizes Need for Open-Minded Approach to Next Rate Move

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Before I begin, let me note that the views I’ll express today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. When people talk about the safe-haven status of the dollar, they often point to flight-to-quality episodes like the Global Financial Crisis and the early days of the COVID pandemic. For me, a different episode stands out, one from before I became a Federal Reserve policymaker. On the evening of Friday, August 5th, 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the United States’ long-term credit rating to AA+. At the time, I ran a US cash trading desk, and there were lots of questions about how markets would react to the government’s first rating below AAA. Even though stock market indexes fell the following Monday, Treasury prices rallied. Investors were willing to accept lower yields on US government debt rather than higher yields that are often necessary for lower-rated securities. The value of the US dollar declined relative to the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in the days that followed. But the broad trade-weighted dollar index rose.2 This experience reinforced to me that, in times of financial trouble, investors and governments alike place great trust in the US dollar. In my brief prepared remarks today, I’ll discuss the underpinnings of the dollar’s leading international role, including its safe-haven status, and point to a few potential developments that bear watching. While I don’t see any big shifts in the dollar’s standing on the immediate horizon, the world is constantly changing. We shouldn’t take for granted the conditions that have made the dollar the world’s dominant currency FED’S HAMMACK: EURO STILL NOT READY TO TAKE OVER FOR DOLLAR FED’S HAMMACK: FED POLICY IS IN GOOD POSITION TO NAVIGATE INFLATION, JOB CHALLENGES FED’S HAMMACK: FED RATE POLICY LIKELY ON HOLD FOR QUITE SOME TIME

FED'S HAMMACK: GOOD FOR THE FED TO STAY ON HOLD RIGHT NOW, DOESN'T NEED TO FINE-TUNE RATE POLICY. ... Fed's Hammack: I don't think rates putting much restraint on the economy. FED’S HAMMACK SAYS U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE PATH AND MUST BE ADDRESSED

Federal Reserve official, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Beth Hammack reiterated a steady but firm message, signalling little shift in the central bank’s stance as policymakers weigh the next move in rates. Hammack said the unemployment rate appears to be stabilising and characterised the labour market as broadly in balance, with the latest data reinforcing that view. The comments suggest the Fed sees limited immediate risk of labour market deterioration, reducing urgency for rate cuts on employment grounds. At the same time, she stressed inflation remains too high and emphasised the importance of returning price growth to the Fed’s 2% target. The tone underscores that policymakers are not yet convinced inflation pressures have been fully tamed. Hammack also noted that consumer spending continues to hold up, driven disproportionately by higher-income households. That dynamic may help explain why overall demand has remained resilient despite restrictive policy settings. Taken together, the remarks point to a Federal Reserve that is comfortable with current labour market conditions but not prepared to declare victory on inflation. The message aligns with other recent commentary from Fed officials that policy needs to remain sufficiently restrictive until inflation is firmly on a sustainable path back to target. FED’S HAMMACK SAID THE LABOR MARKET APPEARS BROADLY IN BALANCE WITH A STABILIZING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, BUT STRESSED INFLATION REMAINS TOO HIGH AND MUST RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET.