US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Fed's Williams: Growth in the economy is solid and on trend, and the labor market is likewise solid and stable. FED'S WILLIAMS: EXPECT OVERALL INFLATION TO DECLINE TO AROUND 3.25% BY YEAR-END, CONTINUE TOWARD OUR 2% GOAL IN 2027 AND LAND ON TARGET IN 2028 || MEDIUM- AND LONGER-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED FED'S WILLIAMS: INFLATION IS UNQUESTIONABLY TOO HIGH AT ABOUT 4% || ENCOURAGING REASONS TO EXPECT THAT INFLATION HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD EDGE DOWN IN COMING QUARTERS Stability of Thy Times Thank you, Steve, for that introduction. And thank you, Rob, for what will surely be a fantastic discussion. Today’s event is an example of a great partnership in action. The New York Fed and the Partnership for New York City both have missions that are focused on promoting economic prosperity and stability. We’ve enjoyed a strong and fruitful relationship over the years, sharing ideas, data, and resources with each other in an effort to better understand how New York City can be best positioned for long-lasting economic success. This has been especially true during times of disruption and uncertainty. That’s why this is such a fitting place for this discussion. When Rockefeller Center was built during the Great Depression, these words were chosen to be inscribed in stone: “Wisdom and knowledge shall be the stability of thy times.” If you didn’t see it on your way in, make sure to take a look on your way out. Or just rewatch the opening credits of 30 Rock.

Fed's Williams: Fed actively debating scenarios around inflation Fed's Williams: Tariffs impact on inflation close to its peak. Fed's Williams: Markets still expect oil prices to come down over next 6 to 12 months, view is reasonable. Fed's Williams: We will get inflation back to 2%. Fed's Williams: Risk is currently more on the inflation side

Fed's Williams: Stablecoins are not displacing money market funds. Fed's Williams: Stablecoins are not a threat to bank deposits Fed's Williams: Reforms to liquidity regulations should bear in mind bank safety issues Fed's Williams: It's unclear how much smaller the Fed balance sheet can get Fed's Williams: Fed's goal with balance sheet is about interest rate control.

FED'S WILLIAMS: EXPECT INFLATION TO MODERATE TO 3.5% THIS YEAR ... FED'S WILLIAMS PUSHES BACK 2% INFLATION TIMELINE TO 2028 FROM 2027 The New York Fed president said it is "imperative" the Fed get inflation back to its 2% target and reiterated that monetary policy is "well positioned" for the current economy. He expects inflation to moderate to… Just in | Fed's Williams: Early resolution of Middle East conflicts could ease inflationary pressures.

Fed's Williams: Middle East War Impacts Consumer Spending Amid Higher Energy Costs - Hit To Inflation Likely To Peak In Next Few Months - Tariff Impact Should Peak In Next Few Months - Near Term, Inflation Around 4% And Core Inflation Around 3% Fed's Williams: Anchoring inflation expectations is critical. Fed's Williams: Monetary policy needs to be data dependent. WILLIAMS: FED MUST BE CLEAR IT IS GETTING INFLATION TO 2% WILLIAMS: PATH FOR MONETARY POLICY DEPENDS ON DATA, OUTLOOK AND RISKS

Thank you for the opportunity to speak today. I’d like to discuss one of the most fundamental challenges we face as economic policymakers: understanding structural economic change as it happens. There are many types of structural change that create such a challenge, including changes in the famous star variables like the natural rates of unemployment and interest. But today, I’ll focus on shifts in the trend rate of productivity growth. I’ll boil this topic down to a simple two-part question: how does the economy respond to a shift in the rate of productivity growth, and what does it mean for monetary policy? It may seem like a basic question that should have been long settled by now. But the further you delve into trying to answer it, the more nuanced it becomes. This question is especially timely today because of all the attention on artificial intelligence and its potential to spur a productivity boom. But this is not our first productivity growth rodeo. Thankfully, history provides important lessons for us to learn from. Think back to the 1970s, when the United States experienced a pronounced productivity slowdown following a quarter century of remarkable postwar growth. This was followed by an acceleration beginning in the mid-1990s, which itself reversed in the mid-2000s. These episodes weren’t minor statistical curiosities—they fundamentally reshaped the macroeconomic landscape. The productivity slowdown of the 1970s contributed to stagflation. And the productivity boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s was a contributing factor to that decade’s economic prosperity with low in Fed's Williams does not comment on near-term monetary policy outlook.

Just in | Fed's Williams: Central Bank Independence Enhances Economic Performance NYFED'S WILLIAMS Q&A/CBE: SEEMS LIKE 'UNUSUAL TIMES;' SEEING PRETTY STABLE INFL EXPECTATIONS; HOPE TO SEE GEOPOLITICAL STABILIZATION IN A MONTH OR TWO #Williams #FederalReserve #economy FED'S WILLIAMS: NOT YET OBSERVING SIGNIFICANT SECOND-ROUND IMPACT ON INFLATION; CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ENERGY PRICE OUTLOOK; THE JOB MARKET HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STABILIZING — NEITHER "HOT" NOR SLOWING SHARPLY