Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? The duo breaks down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and what the latest developments in the Middle East mean for energy ...

The dominant narrative since both sides signed the Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 is that Iran “won” the war. That narrative is profoundly wrong and is often pushed by the same crowd that told us - over and over - that oil would go to $200. The truth is that Iran’s regime desperately needs peace and you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure ...

FED'S WALLER: FED POLICYMAKERS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN COMMITTED TO INFLATION TARGET, IT IS A ‘CREDIBLE PLEDGE’ Fed's Waller: The risks have flipped around, the labor market seems stabilized, and inflation has been taking off, which changes how you think about policy. Fed's Waller when asked about Warsh recommitting to the inflation target: He has never been anything but committed.

The Business Outlook Survey was conducted by in-person, video and phone interviews from May 1 to 21, 2026. The Business Leaders’ Pulse is conducted online every month; the latest results are from April, May and June 2026. This quarter’s publication also includes results from special consultations with business leaders and industry experts in the oil and gas sector. • Overall business sentiment has deteriorated after improving over the past three quarters. • Sales outlooks have softened slightly, reflecting a slowdown in business and consumer spending associated with rising fuel-related costs and heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. • Firms’ export outlooks have improved. Fewer firms said trade uncertainty and hesitancy among US customers are constraining exports, and more firms reported strong demand for commodity exports. • Most firms did not report binding capacity constraints or labour shortages. Reports of difficulties sourcing critical inputs increased this quarter, but these were generally not viewed as limiting firms’ ability to meet demand. Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2026 Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation and expectations for inflation over the next 12 months were little changed, while two-year-ahead expectations rose slightly (Chart 1, blue, yellow and green lines). Near-term expectations remain above levels seen before the start of trade tensions. Expectations for inflation over the next five years edged up after easing in recent quarters (Chart 1, red line). The share of consumers expecting inflation to be above 3% over the next 12 months increased slightly from last quarter (Chart 2, red and orange bars). Consumers continued to cite tariffs and trade tensions as the most important factor affecting inflation (Chart 3). In follow-up interviews, one respondent said, “Where I work, a lot of raw material is used. ... [Tariffs have raised] substantially the price of the item itself plus the cost to ship it, so we have to pass that cost on to our customers.” BoC Business Outlook Survey: Business Sentiment Weakens, Inflation Expectations Edge Higher BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDEX -0.39 IN Q2 VS. -0.35 IN Q1, (REVISED FROM -0.36 PREVIOUSLY), -2.41 IN Q2 2025 #Canadaecon #canada #business #economy

JPMorgan said demand for gold from key sectors would not be as strong as it had expected, limiting the rise in gold prices this year to $4 300/oz in the third quarter and $4 500/oz in the fourth quarter. The bank said the risks to its forecast skew to the downside, given possible early interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve if data were to come in ...

Thank you, Isabel, and thank you to the organizers for the invitation to be part of this discussion.1 As we get closer to the dinner hour, I will give you two thoughts to chew on about how monetary policy transmission has worked in the recent past and how that affects my view of appropriate actions when facing current challenges. The first of these is that initial conditions are crucial. To decide where policy should go, you need a clear sense of where you are starting from. By "initial conditions," I mean what is currently happening—not some average of experience in the past. This lesson was brought home to me during the rapid escalation of inflation in the United States following the pandemic. Based on past experience, a considerable share of the economic profession believed that the rapid tightening of financial conditions needed to bring down inflation would unavoidably cause a sharp increase in unemployment. And while this expectation was a good summary of what had happened in the past, in 2022, it was a poor predictor of what would happen from tightening policy because initial conditions at that time were so different. In particular, the combination of a negative labor supply shock along with a booming economy fueled by fiscal and monetary stimulus led to a situation in early 2022 where the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers was 2—a level never seen before. This initial condition for job vacancies was critical to understanding how tightening monetary policy would affect the labor market. Historically, changes in labor demand had minor Fed's Waller: Forward guidance can be a hindrance if it is too strong or rigid. Fed's Waller: Forward guidance also problematic when policymakers confront different economic outcomes all with a significant probability of occurring. Fed's Waller: When it works, forward guidance can speed the impact of monetary policy, as in late 2021. Fed's Waller does not comment on current economic policy outlook.

Precious metals are attempting to establish a floor after several months of heavy liquidation, technical damage and rapidly shifting macro narratives. Gold’s rebound towards USD 4,200, silver’s recovery back above USD 60 and renewed interest in platinum all suggest that hard-asset demand has not disappeared. However, the sector has moved from being ...

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory. The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® ...

Latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global showed that the US service sector recorded a modest, but improved, rise in activity during June. The upturn was supported by a faster increase in new business, as firms responded to gradually stabilizing economic conditions. That said, growth remained historically muted and continued to weigh on employment levels at ...

Economic updates were at the fore last week. In the US, weak jobs data and softer manufacturing activity reduced expectations of near-term Fed tightening. Eurozone inflation eased while unemployment remained stable. In Asia, economic activity strengthened in China and Japan, while India’s service sector momentum slowed. • Major global equity markets ...

The yellow metal experienced a turbulent start to the trading week. Following its strongest weekly performance since May, gold surrendered gains on Monday as the U.S. dollar regained its footing. Spot gold decreased 0.6% to trade at $4,151.66 per ounce during early Monday sessions. Gold futures contracts slipped 0.7% to $4,167.29 per ounce. The previous ...

The chart I am about to show rather attracted my attention over the weekend. After all we have been looking at the theme of weak Chinese house prices for some years now. For newer readers net exporters ( China, Germany and Japan) all tend to have weak domestic consumption. In China deficient domestic demand was such an issue they took a leaf out of the ...