US FOMC Member Logan Speaks

Good morning. Thank you, Daron [Peschel], for that kind introduction. And welcome, everyone, to the Dallas Fed’s Houston branch. I’m looking forward to my conversation with Dr. Margaret Ford Fisher, chancellor of Houston City College, in just a few minutes. As I travel through the Dallas Fed’s district, I talk extensively with workers, bankers, business executives and community leaders, just as we’re doing here today. These dialogues matter for two reasons. First, they provide nuanced, up-to-date information. I’m grateful to everyone who takes time to talk. Your perspectives help me learn how people are experiencing the economy. You teach me how national policy decisions reverberate here in Texas. And you show me what trends are on the horizon. Aggregate macroeconomic statistics can be highly informative, but there’s no substitute for on-the-ground insight. Second, public dialogue lets you hold me accountable for serving you well. The Fed is an independent central bank. Independence means monetary policy decisions focus on the long term. We are still accountable to the American people. The Fed reports regularly to Congress. Community leaders on the board of directors at each Federal Reserve Bank select and evaluate its management. And in conversations like this one, you get to tell us how we’re doing. Through all those engagements, we expect and need the public to hold us to account for fulfilling the important mission you’ve trusted us with. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets monetary policy to achieve two goals: maximum employment and stable prices. Congress assigned us those goals. We pursue both with vigor and focus. Everyone who wants to find work should be able to do so. Households and businesses should be able to count on low inflation so they can make ends meet today and plan for a prosperous future. In the long run, the FOMC’s two goals are complementary. They work in concert to support a strong and growing American economy. Today, I’d like to tell you why I currently believe modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the FOMC’s dual mandate goals. These are my views and, let me emphasize, not necessarily those of my FOMC colleagues. The FOMC targets a 2 percent inflation rate as measured by the price inde Fed's Logan: Modestly higher interest rates would better balance outlook, risks. Fed's Logan: One month of lower CPI inflation is not enough. Fed's Logan: Downside risks to employment have faded, inflation risks are mainly to the upside.

Fed's Logan: Current monetary policy looks neutral or loose. Fed's Logan: Need mildly restrictive policy.

Good afternoon. Thank you, Arturo [Barrio], for the generous introduction. It’s great to be back here. In my travels, I have many opportunities to thank people for welcoming me to their communities, and the welcome is never warmer than in El Paso. But I want to turn the tables today and welcome Arturo to the Dallas Fed. Our regional executives build the relationships that connect the Federal Reserve to the communities we serve. Those relationships help policymakers like me understand the economy. Equally, those relationships afford all of you the opportunity to help shape the Fed’s work. I’m so pleased to have a leader of Arturo’s caliber filling this role. And I’m delighted that Roberto Coronado, who preceded Arturo as regional executive, will remain in El Paso. Roberto will continue to connect with the community here while bringing his leadership acumen to broader responsibilities as head of community engagement and development throughout the Dallas Fed’s district. It’s wonderful to see so many special guests, including current and former board members of the Dallas Fed and our El Paso branch. And I’m honored to share the stage with a distinguished public servant, UTEP’s president, Heather Wilson. Dialogues like the one we’re having this afternoon are at the heart of the Fed’s mission. The Federal Reserve System is our nation’s central bank, but it is a decentralized institution. The system includes the Board of Governors in Washington and 12 Reserve Banks serving districts around the country. The Reserve Banks, in turn, have an additional 24 branch offices. I’m proud to say the Dallas Fed’s El Paso branch is believed to be the v FED'S LOGAN SAID SHE IS INCREASINGLY CONCERNED THAT HIGHER INTEREST RATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS YEAR, CITING INFLATION'S SLOW RETURN TO THE FED'S 2% TARGET.

It's an honor to participate in this important conference alongside my distinguished fellow panelists. These are my views and not necessarily those of my Federal Reserve colleagues. Before I address more traditional imbalances, I’d like to share an update on global oil balances from my vantage point in Texas. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global oil supply on net by nearly 13 million barrels per day, or more than 10 percent. Inventory drawdowns have filled much of that shortfall so far, including through increased ...

Thank you for the kind introduction, Emily, and thanks to all of you for joining us today for our third annual Eleventh District Banking Conference. I’m excited to gather bankers, regulators and supervisors to discuss the timely topics of banking conditions, fraud mitigation and integration with service providers. We regularly host events such as today’s conference to connect with bankers and deepen our understanding of the current landscape. It’s a pleasure to partner once again with the Texas Department of Banking to host this event. Thank you for being here and for taking part in this important dialogue. We have all kinds of banks here in the Eleventh District and represented at this conference. From large, nationwide institutions to community banks that each serve their towns out of a single office, your banks all make important contributions to America’s economy. More than that, the diversity of the banking ecosystem strengthens our economy. Families and businesses can find banks that best meet their needs, whatever those needs may be. Community banks know what makes their towns tick. Growing up in a small town in Kentucky, I saw first-hand how community bankers serve their neighbors. Meanwhile, larger banks bring the scale and scope of services that some customers require. And competition drives all banks to find ways to serve the economy better. Promoting a vibrant banking ecosystem is top of mind for me in all our work. The Fed, too, is a bank. We don’t take deposits from or make loans to Main Street families and businesses. But as the nation’s central bank, we serve the banking needs of commercial banks, which allows you in turn to better serve your customers. When it comes to size, the Fed is at the high end. We are the biggest bank in the country, in fact, with $6.7 trillion in assets. That represents 21 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), down from a postpandemic peak of 35 percent. But it is still substantially above the prepandemic trough of 19 percent of GDP, even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently completed the process of normalizing our balance sheet by running off assets we bought during the pandemic. The growth of the Fed’s balance sheet has prompted a lot of discussion about whether the balance sheet is too big, and if so, how we could shrink it. Today, I would like to give you my take on those questions. Of course, these are my views and not necessarily those of my Federal Reserve colleagues. Here’s how I see it. When it co LOGAN STATED THAT THE FED SHOULD FOCUS ON ITS MISSION WITHOUT GETTING SIDETRACKED BY BALANCE SHEET MATTERS. LOGAN STATES THAT GROWTH IN THE FED BALANCE SHEET IS NOT NEGATIVE IF IT SERVES THE PUBLIC'S NEEDS. FED'S LOGAN STATES THAT FORCING BANKS TO CUT BACK ON RESERVES COULD HEIGHTEN RISKS TO THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. FED LOGAN SAYS THAT SOME WAYS TO LOWER RESERVE DEMAND NEED TO COME FROM SOURCES OTHER THAN THE FEDERAL RESERVE.

Federal Reserve Logan: upside inflation risks remain FED’S LOGAN: ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES, TECH SECTOR ONE OF THE ‘BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES’ - BACKED JANUARY DECISION TO HOLD STEADY AMID STABILIZING JOB MARKET - ‘CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC’ US ECONOMY IS ON PATH FOR INFLATION TO RETURN TO TARGET - NOT FULLY CONVINCED WE ARE ON A…