US FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks

Fed's Jefferson: If inflation fails to ease, revisiting policy stance may be necessary to maintain price stability Fed's Jefferson: Current policy positioned to respond based on incoming data, evolving outlook and risk balance

Thank you for the kind introduction. I am delighted to be here at Stanford University today to discuss a topic that is central to the Federal Reserve's work: how policymakers analyze and respond to economic shocks in real time. The economy is constantly experiencing shocks that change economic conditions and that policymakers must consider. Today, I will focus on shocks that are extremely difficult—if not impossible—to predict, such as the emergence of a pandemic, the start of a war, or a sudden breakthrough in technological ...

Fed's Jefferson says monetary policy is well positioned to respond, not prejudge June meet Jefferson: Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy Good morning. It is an honor to be here at the Bank of Japan, and I appreciate the opportunity to speak with you today. I am looking forward to our discussion, but first I want to share some framing thoughts. I will briefly discuss three developments in the global economy that I am monitoring, and then I will update you on my outlook for the U.S. economy and the path of monetary policy. The first global development I am tracking is the significant increase in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. The rise in crude oil prices poses downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation around the globe. Elevated energy prices are particularly challenging for countries like Japan that are net energy importers. While being a net energy exporter buffers the U.S. to an extent against energy shocks, it is not immune to the effects of disruption to global supply. Gasoline prices in the U.S. increased significantly since the onset of the conflict and remain notably elevated. I am watching whether higher energy prices will start to weigh on consumer spending. The second development is the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. As a central banker, I am optimistic about AI's promise to drive productivity and growth, though I am also monitoring its effects on the labor market and inflation. And the third development is the effects of disrupted trade flows on the global economy. Since the pandemic, there have been multiple disruptions to global trade that have affected both supply and price levels. Against this global backdrop, my focus, of course, is on the U.S. economy. Recent economic growth in FED GOV JEFFERSON/BOJ INSTITUTE: VIEW RISKS TO INFLATION 'TILTED TO THE UPSIDE;' EXPECT INFLATION TO DECLINE LATER THIS YEAR #Jefferson #FederalReserve #economy FED GOV JEFFERSON/BOJ INSTITUTE: WATCHING WHETHER HIGHER ENERGY PRICES WILL START TO WEIGH ON CONSUMER SPENDING #Jefferson #FederalReserve #economy

Thank you for the warm welcome. It is an honor to speak here at the University of Detroit Mercy. I spent most of my career as an economics professor before joining the Board of Governors, so I feel right at home when I am back on a university campus. This evening, I would like to start by updating you on my economic outlook. And since I have the privilege of being here in Detroit, a city synonymous with hard work, I will particularly focus on my labor market outlook. Next, I will discuss the possible implications of the outlook for ...

Thank you, Donald, for the kind introduction. I am honored to be here in Dallas. I very much enjoyed my time today meeting with community members and hearing from the hardworking staff at the Dallas Fed. And I appreciate this opportunity to speak with all of you this evening. Tonight, I would like to share with you my updated economic outlook and then discuss the possible implications of that outlook for the path of monetary policy. It is an opportune time for that discussion, just a week after our last Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Then, I will expand on the implications of elevated energy prices for the economy, particularly thinking about the effects here in the resource-rich 11th District, and finally I will be happy to answer some questions. I see the U.S. economy continuing to grow, led by resilient consumers and healthy business investment. The labor market is roughly in balance but susceptible to adverse shocks. Unemployment is low and stable by historical standards, while hiring has slowed to a very modest pace. Inflation, meanwhile, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. At the beginning of the year, I noted signs that inflation would return to a sustainable path toward our objective.2 The ongoing uncertainty over tariff policy and the recent jump in energy prices, however, complicates, at least in the short term, the picture on both sides of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Just in | Jefferson warns that tariff policy uncertainty and rising energy prices are complicating the short-term outlook for employment and inflation. Fed's Jefferson notes US labor market is balanced but vulnerable to adverse shocks FED GOV JEFFERSON/GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES: 'LITTLE PROGRESS' IN SLOWING INFLATION OVERPAST YEAR AND STILL 'AN UPSIDE RISK;' YET MONPOL 'WELL POSITIONED' #Jefferson #FederalReserve #economy

Thank you, Wendy, for the kind introduction. It is an honor to speak at the Brookings Institution. Today, I will start by sharing my outlook for the economy. Then, I will discuss the possible implications of that outlook for the path of monetary policy. Next, I will turn to the subject matter of this conference and discuss supply-side inflation dynamics. After my remarks, I look forward to our discussion. At the start of this year, I am cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook. I see signs suggesting that the labor market is stabilizing, that inflation can return to a path toward our 2 percent objective, and that sustainable economic growth will continue. To be sure, there are risks to both sides of the dual mandate, given to us by Congress, of maximum employment and stable prices. Incoming data bear careful watching. FED'S JEFFERSON SAYS HE SUPPORTED LAST YEAR’S INTEREST RATE CUTS, POLICY ROUGHLY IN NEUTRAL STANCE FED'S JEFFERSON: JOB MARKET SOFTER ON REDUCED DEMAND, IMMIGRATION ISSUES

Thank you, President Hasner, for the kind introduction. It is an honor to speak at Florida Atlantic University, and I am glad to have the chance to talk with those here from the American Institute for Economic Research and the Shadow Open Market Committee. I especially appreciate the opportunity to discuss my economic outlook at the start of the new year. It is a task made considerably easier with the gradual return of federal government data, which was disrupted by last year's lapse in funding. The lack of data reinforced two long-held beliefs for me. One, how grateful I am for the dedicated service of the statistical agencies to keep policymakers, businesses, and the public informed about the state of the economy. And, two, how important it is to have access to an array of data beyond what those agencies provide. That includes data produced by the Federal Reserve System, state governments, and a wide variety of private-sector sources. All of those data sources inform my view of the economy and help me make monetary policy decisions. Today, I will start by sharing my outlook for the economy at the start of 2026. Next, I will discuss the implications of that outlook for the path of monetary policy. And, finally, I will discuss some recent developments in monetary policy implementation, which I know is of interest to many of you in this room. As a reminder, these views are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues. Fed's Jefferson: Current policy stance leaves us well-positioned to determine how much and when to adjust the policy rate. FED'S JEFFERSON: SOME UPSIDE RISKS REMAIN, BUT EXPECT INFLATION TO RETURN TO THE PATH TOWARD 2%. ... Fed's Jefferson cautiously optimistic for 2026 outlook, citing risks to employment and price stability goals