Thanks for the suggestion, baile. I have opened accounts with other brokers now. And after FIFO and 50:1 maximum leverage, I am not considering USA brokers anymore.

Broker not accepting clients from Brazil

The risk balance mechanism is working as it should. Overshooting a bit maybe, but this may be compensated by the "aggressiveness" variable. There was a copy/paste error in some cells, now corrected. The spreadsheet is fully operational. Three ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Many improvements were made to the risk balance mechanism. Estimated probabilities look realistic now. Got rid of some fancy numbers.

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Market pays tithing for hell rides (each 1% drawdown is returning close to 0.1% extra on average). Hope it doesn't let me head down stuck in the 9th circle someday, lol. "Tithe chart" improved (unnamed scatter chart on DDCy sheet). Cycle, daily, ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

The simpler the better. A chart now shows the evolution of payoff with increased leverage (and decreased stop out). At some point a balance should be reached (shall it?). The question is: "Which leverage should I use to get maximum payoff - if any?" ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Many improvements were made to the "toolkit", one affecting the Monte Carlo spreadsheet, updated. Main payoff figure is now being estimated corretly. Kelly % is definitely a fantasy. Maximum leverage implemented. Next step: reduce stop out to 25%. ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Attached here is the best simple explanation of Kelly Criterion I have seen so far.

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Hi Exnav, I am one of the dinosaurs of this thread (if I remember corretly, discovered it in December, 2007) and never quit following it. Though I have made serious mistakes before, I have too much respect for fti to dare talk about anything that is ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Discovered some hidden errors in the spreadsheets. Again. Will this ever end? I hope so. But the main part (exits) is working fine. Balancing risk with performance is a tricky task. Still not where it should be, but I will get there. Kelly is very ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Fixed some broken references in formulas. Not enough data yet to start (and test) the risk balancing mechanism. Maybe in a few sessions - if I can keep drawdown low.

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

ok, here it is. For me it is always good to remind.

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi all, Are LLL (long legged ladies) MMM (market maker moves)? Happy new year! Ops, sorry if this has been discussed/explained. Bad memory. Pls disregard.

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Fixed an error in the Starting Balance automatic update. Just a reminder: this "toolkit" is not a recommendation to use martingale, which is very dangerous. If you have an edge, please stick with it and don't play with fire. If you don't have, it ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

A slightly improved version of my Toolbox is here. Got rid of some useless stuff, corrected some minor errors and added a few resources. The Q3 cell in the Open sheet, intended to monitor drawdown and hold the biggest value experienced during the ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

My consistency test is brutal and I like it this way. It will mercilessly point out any flaw in your trading scheme. Limiting risk with no edge will only guarantee that you will destroy your account slowly instead of blowing it up in one day. Thanks ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Corrected daily log ("Resumo do dia", DLog sheet) and uploaded new file.

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Não sei como te ajudar. Tentar ser IB no Brasil deve ser extremamente complicado. E tem muito pilantra, o que sempre estraga tudo.

Broker not accepting clients from Brazil

Mades, thank you for your input. I was obsessed by the question "What is the ideal risk level?". Why cut losses at 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10 or 30%? If you have a good edge, you may risk more. On the other hand, a profitable method may be ruined by too much ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Here is an updated version of the spreadsheet. I am using it to trade, to keep record of trades and to analyse results. Monte Carlo Simulation was put in a separate file but it takes data from the main spreadsheet, named Toolbox. There is still some ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

This is a great book, imho.

Technical Analysis Fallacy