Legend
- High Impact Expected
- Med Impact Expected
- Low Impact Expected
- Non-Economic
Revision
- Green NumberBetter than forecast -or- revised better
- Red NumberWorse than forecast -or- revised worse
- m/mMonth Over Month
- q/qQuarter Over Quarter
- y/yYear Over Year
- K Thousand
- M Million
- B Billion
- T Trillion
US Core CPI y/y
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Federal Open Market Committee usually pays more attention to the Core data - so do traders;
- US Core CPI y/y Graph
- History
| Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| May 12, 2026 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
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- US Core CPI y/y News
From think.ing.com|Jul 14, 2026|3 commentsToday's consumer price inflation report for June was considerably softer than expected. US headline prices fell -0.4% month-on-month versus consensus expectations of a -0.1% outcome, while core inflation (ex-food and energy) was flat on the month versus expectations of a 0.2% increase. To three decimal places, it was a negative print of -0.017% MoM. As a result, the annual headline inflation rate slows to 3.5% year-on-year from 4.2% while core inflation slows to 2.6% from 2.9%. The details show gasoline prices fell 9.7% MoM, but ...
From finance.yahoo.com|Jul 14, 2026US Treasuries surged as traders pulled back from bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes after consumer prices data came in lower than forecast. The yield on two-year Treasuries — which are sensitive to the near-term outlook for Fed monetary policy — fell as much as 14 basis points to 4.14% and was headed for its biggest one-day decline since February. The probability that the US central bank raises rates later this month, as implied by the interest-rate swap market, fell to about 20% from more than 40%. "It's a broad-based ...
From bbc.com|Jul 14, 2026Inflation in the US eased last month as the cost of filling up at the pumps fell, official figures show. Prices rose 3.5% in the year to June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), down from 4.2% recorded in May. Gasoline prices decreased 9.7% last month, but are still much more expensive than a year ago. On Tuesday, the national average had risen to $3.86 a gallon from $3.79 a week ago, according to motorist advocacy group AAA. However, while the rate of inflation has fallen, the easing of price rises could be ...
From youtube.com/forexcom|Jul 14, 2026|1 commentThe highly-anticipated US CPI report came in well below expectations at -0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y), with Core CPI at 0.0% m/m (2.6% y/y). Is that print alone enough to buy the Fed time to push back any rate hikes until the fall? FOREX.com's Global Head of Research Matt Weller breaks down the key news you need to know ahead of the US Open, as well as taking a look at today’s chart of the day, the US Dollar Index (DXY).
From bls.gov|Jul 14, 2026|226 commentsThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June after rising 0.5 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decline in the all items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy fell 5.7 percent in June after rising 3.9 percent in May, 3.8 percent in April, and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food. The index for food increased 0.2 percent over the month, as did the index for food at home and the index for food away from home. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June. Indexes that decreased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care, and used cars and trucks. Conversely, the indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and personal care were among the major indexes that increased in June. The all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June after rising 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index
Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased Consumer prices posted their biggest decline in more than six years during June as a sharp swoon in energy prices provided at least temporary relief from this year’s inflation surge, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, was lower than expected across the board. CPI fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 0.2% and an inflation rate of 3.8%, following the 4.2% reading in May. The monthly drop in headline inflation was the biggest since April 2020. Core CPI *declined* in June, falling -0.02% and reducing the 12-month rate to 2.6%. Headline CPI also fell, and by a larger-than-expected -0.42%, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.5%. pic.twitter.com/m2o2xGLFvd
From apnews.com|Jul 14, 2026|2 commentsInflation likely cooled last month as gas prices declined, providing consumers with some welcome relief even as renewed combat with Iran has sent oil prices climbing again. The government’s latest inflation report, to be released Tuesday, is forecast to show that consumer prices dropped 0.2% in June, according to a survey of economists by data provider FactSet. It would be the first monthly decline in nearly four years. Compared with a year ago, prices probably rose 3.9%, down from a 4.2% annual rate in May. Gas prices have fallen a ...
From tickmill.com|Jul 14, 2026|3 commentsInflation On Watch All eyes are on the US Dollar today as traders await the June CPI print this afternoon. On the numbers front, the market is looking for headlines annualised CPI to cool to 3.8% from 4.2% prior with core CPI also expected to soften to 2.8% from 2.9% prior. There has been plenty of focus on the inflation outlook and Fed tightening expectations amidst the recent drop in oil prices, with some players arguing that traders have turned too aggressively hawkish in their Fed outlook. Current market pricing for a hike by ...
From morningstar.com|Jul 13, 2026|3 commentsA surge in U.S. inflation to a three-year high has begun to recede, but life isn't going to get more affordable for Americans anytime soon. The cost of living is all but certain to decline in June for the first time since the pandemic six years ago - entirely due to a sharp drop in gasoline prices. The cost of a regular gallon of gas tumbled 15% from mid-May to the end of June. Economists predict the U.S. consumer-price index fell by 0.2% in June. The critical report for Wall Street will be released Tuesday morning. The yearly rate ...
| Released on Jul 14, 2026 |
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