Will the Big CPI Miss Scuttle Summer Fed Hikes?

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June after rising 0.5 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decline in the all items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy fell 5.7 percent in June after rising 3.9 percent in May, 3.8 percent in April, and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food. The index for food increased 0.2 percent over the month, as did the index for food at home and the index for food away from home. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June. Indexes that decreased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care, and used cars and trucks. Conversely, the indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and personal care were among the major indexes that increased in June. The all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June after rising 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased Consumer prices posted their biggest decline in more than six years during June as a sharp swoon in energy prices provided at least temporary relief from this year’s inflation surge, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, was lower than expected across the board. CPI fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 0.2% and an inflation rate of 3.8%, following the 4.2% reading in May. The monthly drop in headline inflation was the biggest since April 2020. Core CPI *declined* in June, falling -0.02% and reducing the 12-month rate to 2.6%. Headline CPI also fell, and by a larger-than-expected -0.42%, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.5%. pic.twitter.com/m2o2xGLFvd

US Treasuries surged as traders pulled back from bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes after consumer prices data came in lower than forecast. The yield on two-year Treasuries — which are sensitive to the near-term outlook for Fed monetary policy — fell as much as 14 basis points to 4.14% and was headed for its biggest one-day decline since February. ...

Inflation likely cooled last month as gas prices declined, providing consumers with some welcome relief even as renewed combat with Iran has sent oil prices climbing again. The government’s latest inflation report, to be released Tuesday, is forecast to show that consumer prices dropped 0.2% in June, according to a survey of economists by data provider ...