US CPI m/m

The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets. For credibility’s sake, policymakers had only one choice – press ahead with the planned 25-basis-point rate reduction but present it as a ‘hawkish cut’. Fortunately for the doves and struggling European businesses, the case for further policy easing has strengthened since the last gathering in July when rates were kept on hold. Headline inflation dipped to 2.2% y/y in August and the rebound in euro ...

The communications blackout period around the September 17-18 FOMC meeting is in effect (midnight, Saturday, September 7 through midnight, Thursday, September 19). If any Fed officials speak, it will not be about monetary policy. Even if it were not the blackout period, FOMC participants would probably say nothing to contradict expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut at the meeting, the first since July 2023 when the fed funds target rate reached its near-term peak of 5.25-5.50 percent. The only piece of economic data likely to ...

The 1,000 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on August 5 had market players, a former policymaker and a learned Professor clamoring for an immediate and sharp reduction in the Federal Funds rate. Without policy easing, they warned, the US economy would fall into recession. One observer believes that it may already be too late for the Federal Reserve to prevent a serious economic downturn. Since the plunge in risk assets that Monday, US markets have been up sharply without any action by the Fed. Last week was the S&P 500 ...

apanese stocks led gains in Asian equities after in-line US inflation data calmed market jitters on Wall Street and kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next month. The advance in Tokyo followed economic-growth data that exceeded forecasts, while stocks in Australia also rose. Chinese equities gained after data pointed to signs of stabilization in retail sales and home prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both closed higher Wednesday after year-on-year core consumer prices, which excludes food and energy costs, ...

On a month-to-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI accelerated in July. Inflation in core services, which accounts for 65% of total CPI, bounced back from the outlier and re-accelerated sharply; food prices ticked up; energy prices stopped dropping; and durable goods prices slowed their historic plunge, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. It’s the historic plunge in durable goods prices that has done the heavy lifting in bringing inflation down this year. But durable goods prices aren’t going to ...

US consumer price inflation has risen 0.2% month-on-month for both headline and core, in line with expectations. However, it is slightly better than that as to 3 decimal places headline rose 0.155% and core rose 0.165%, both of which are below the 0.17% rate that over time brings us to 2% year-on-year. The chart below shows that we have had three consecutive readings below 0.17% MoM for core inflation and that the 3M annualised rate is now just 1.6%. The Fed has told us they won't wait for the YoY rate to hit 2% (currently 3.2%) ...