US CPI y/y

The August 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.5% year-over-year (YoY), the smallest annual increase since February 2021. There was an unexpected rise in core inflation in August that was driven by a strong increase in shelter and transport services prices, which we do not think will be sustained. Regardless, the big picture is that this data represents something of a "draw" – it doesn't suggest a reacceleration of inflation, but it doesn't meaningfully progress the core disinflation narrative ...

US inflation continues to moderate, with August’s CPI report indicating cooler price pressures across the economy. But the data also confirmed that the downward moves in inflation are increasingly incremental. Will this slowdown prevent the possibility of big Fed rate cuts?

The big question of the week is 25 or 50? No, we’re not talking about the age of Leonardo DiCaprio’s next girlfriend (obviously 25). We don’t have time to think about about girlfriends (or boyfriends) because we’re too busy thinking about Federal Reserve policy and whether they’ll go 25bps or 50bps at the next FOMC meeting. As I’ve noted in the past I think they should have cut in July and I think they actually regret having not cut in July so there’s a pretty reasonable argument that they should cut 50bps just to make up for the ...

Gold futures close near unchanged after dipping on hotter-than-expected CPI data. Phillip Streible explains.

US core inflation picked up a touch last month and this finally rejects supersizing Fed cuts. There is no reason to supersize a cut next week versus sticking to the gradual mantra. Barring major developments, I can’t see a fifty move at all this year so pricing is too rich. Core inflation was up by 0.28% m/m SA which rounds up to 0.3% on market screens. That was roughly a tick above just about everyone’s calls and while it doesn’t happen often, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast was the raffle winner this time. The annualized rate was 3.4% ...

Underlying US inflation unexpectedly picked up in August on higher prices for housing and travel, undercutting the chances of an outsize Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week. The so-called core consumer price index — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.3% from July, the most in four months, and 3.2% from a year ago, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday. The three-month annualized rate advanced 2.1%, picking up from 1.6% in July, according to Bloomberg calculations. Economists see the core gauge as ...

On Wednesday, investors will digest one of the most important data points that will shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy: August's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.5%, a deceleration from July's 2.9% annual gain in prices. Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2%, matching July's monthly increase. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in August are expected to have ...