Metals Mash Up

Hey All,

It has been awhile but I am back. Crazy 2 years but I wanted to come back so here I am.

A key change since I have been gone is I am trading Metals through Futures contracts. All pricing and analysis is based on COMEX & NYMEX using continuous contacts.

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1815.0 As of 07/16/2021) +0.24% Week +2.60% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (25.795 As of 07/16/2021) -1.68% Week -0.68% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (1108.5 As of 07/16/2021) +1.16% Week +6.60% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (2637.5 As of 07/16/2021) -6.21% Week +6.81% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (4.3230 As of 07/16/2021) -0.50% Week +4.00% in the last 4 weeks

Have A Great Weekend

- Ric

GOLD

Dead center of the pandemic, Gold hit an all time high of $2089.2 Per Troy OZ on Comex on August 7th 2020 by doing its job as a safe haven asset. Today it sits at $1815.00, a 13.25% drop. Attached to this post is the Gold Mid Year Outlook as well as Gold backed ETF report ( June is the latest) by the World Gold Counsel if anyone is interested. I think Gold is over priced. I think people are holding on for fundamental reasons more than any long term tech reason. Let us dive a bit deeper.

Tech Side

Gold was on the rise before all the craziness. The last quarter of 2018 saw Gold rise around 8%. By the 4th quarter of 2019 it had rose another 22%. From that point it has now reach a staggering 33% before retreating down 13%. Is this a real rally? Is this run up only do to rock bottom interest rates and the fear of major inflation that is already here despite what the media and the Fed will have you believe? If so then why the rise in equities? Why the rise in commodities? Everything is up. I think everything is way overpriced. Look at Cryptos. They lost 50% in value. Canary in the coal mine? Was that over 13% drop in Gold smart money cashing in? I would stay away from any long term trading on Gold. On July 6th Goldman Sachs says gold is not the optimal store of value right now. More so because of the undeniable rise in Crypto.

Fundamentals

Near-zero interest rates. Free cash from the government until September with possibly more on the way. People staying and working from home. Increased fear of Delta variant, The FED either lying or ignoring CPI data by saying this inflation is temporary. What do they mean by temporary? A few weeks, months? Is this the true price of Gold or as with stocks, commodities and futures, is it time for the Covid cash in. If we could get some straight answers it could help.

- Ric

Hey All,

Another week in the books. This weeks big loser was Platinum. Platinum slipped 4.25% on the week. It must be a tech thing because fundamentals say that demand should be rising. As the supply chain catches up with demand, we should see increased demand in Platinum for Autos. More over, according to the WPIC, the demand for Platinum bars and coins is at a fever pitch. So what gives with the decline of Platinum since May of this year? Some point to the residual effects of the backlog of demand, which does not make any sense to me. Currently some point to the unrest in South Africa. I dont buy that either. Violence going on is the same as the protests happening all over the world. They are about social issues not markets. I think it is some profit taking after Platinum's 50% rise during our new "Flu Season".

On some flip news, Copper is the winner this week with a nice turn around. After being basically flat on the daily charts since June, price made a nice up move this week. Similar to Platinum, I think we have seen some profit taking and some positions being taken. Copper is up 75% over the last 13 months and as soon as things get better with supply chain, I do not see why price wont continue in the medium term. The world is back logged with chips, autos and homes. Copper is in high demand.

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1801.7 As of 07/23/2021) -0.73% Week +1.35% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (25.235 As of 07/23/2021) -2.17% Week -3.26% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (1061.4 As of 07/23/2021) -4.25% Week -3.72% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (2662.5 As of 07/23/2021) +0.94% Week +0.94% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (4.4000 As of 07/23/2021) +1.79% Week +2.55% in the last 4 weeks

Have A Great Weekend

- Ric

SILVER

It took a worldwide, society changing event to make Silver move out of its 7 year range. Up 116% from it mid pandemic low, Silver is up about 45% from its pre pandemic average. Why? The pandemic sent people crazy trying to find safety. After the price of Silver dipped to just over $12 a OZ in mid March 2020, the money flows came. Fast and hard. It took Silver only 5 months to gain 155%. Over the previous 7 years it had slowly bled out nearly 40% of it value.

Tech Side

Silver has been a long time loser. 7 years of lower lows is proof of such. Unless you short the contracts. If you own physical Silver, I hope you got it at a good price. The long-term downward trending line was shattered at $18.825 on July 8th 2020. It rocketed up to the not seen in years $30.00 range. Now its stuck again. 3 times trying to beat that level but failing each time. To me this looks like a tech reset. Up ward pressure is building with higher lows over the last 8 months. However, lower highs also abound. Is price going to start bouncing around again for another 7 years?

Fundamentals

Covid influence is 100% the reason for the rise in the value of Silver. What happens next? Total supply looks like it will exceed demand through 2021. I think people in general will stay away from buying physical Silver. After that kind of rise in price, they don't want to end up like those poor suckers from the 2016 rally. Maybe when I revisit Silver for a long term outlook I will have some more to talk about. For now, Silver looks like it is going back to its old ways.

- Ric

Hey All,

End of another week as well as the trading month. Mid summer pricing seems to be stuck on going nowhere. Maybe traders are waiting for the end of September which is the end of the 3rd quarter and the start of the forth? Maybe this is big money position taking waiting to see what the "Delta" flu has in store for the world? Talks of new shutdowns worldwide and fear of round 2 of stay at home orders are not something to overlook. Dare I say the specter of a bit of unrest and violence around the world if Governments try and force mandates on civilians to take the, and lets be fair here, not fully tested or fully approved vaccine. I am not surprised the Metals are ho-hum this week. The big loser in July is definitely Palladium with a drop of 4.60%. The big winner of this week and this month is our friend Copper with 1.81% & 5% gain respectively.

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1816.9 As of 07/30/2021) +0.84% Week +1.88% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (25.550 As of 07/30/2021) +1.28% Week -3.54% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (1045.9 As of 07/30/2021) -1.46% Week -3.80% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (2664.0 As of 07/30/2021) +0.08% Week -4.60% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (4.4805 As of 07/30/2021) +1.81% Week +5.00% in the last 4 weeks

Have A Great Weekend

- Ric