• Home
  • Forums
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Login
  • Join
  • User/Email: Password:
  • 3:27pm
Menu
  • Forums
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Login
  • Join
  • 3:27pm
Sister Sites
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft
  • Forex Factory

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates 573 replies

Where can an American trade all metals and oil on an MT4 demo? 11 replies

Base Metals 12 replies

OTC metals trading to become illegal? 20 replies

trading currencies or metals? 9 replies

  • Interactive Trading
  • /
  • Reply to Thread
  • Subscribe
  • 75
Attachments: Metals Mash Up
Exit Attachments
Tags: Metals Mash Up
Cancel

Metals Mash Up

  • Last Post
  •  
  • Page 1 23456 7
  • Page 1 234 7
  •  
  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Jun 5, 2019 8:35pm Jun 5, 2019 8:35pm
  •  riclater211
  • | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Hello all,

To celebrate the completion of Meats Mine Beta, I thought I would start a new thread for myself as well as others. This thread will focus strictly on the metals trade. Full disclosure, I only recently started trading metals, other than Gold, but trading is trading. This thread will focus on:

Gold (1328.49 As of Today)

Silver (14.7951 As of Today)

Platinum (808.40 As of Today)

Palladium ( 1335.75 As of Today)

Copper (2.6214 As of Today)

I would like to keep all other markets out of this thread since they all have a place of there own. I would like to include news, rumors, charts and analysis. Please have some real data to back your opinions.

PLEASE NOTE, I have zero tolerance for nonsense. We are all adults and should conduct ourselves as professionals. There is always room for banter, fun and the like. Anyone not behaving will get the boot. We are all here to learn, share and grow. We are not here for a pissing contest. Nobody is always right. In fact, most times we are wrong. So keep yourself humble and we can all make some cash if you like trading metals.

Thanks,

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:37pm Jun 5, 2019 9:37pm
  •  riclater211
  • | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
GOLD

Gold almost reached the February 20th high of 1346.74 but could not make it. As I stated in the XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread I closed my trade early because I did not like how price was behaving around the 1328 level. Today I was glad to be out.

Tech Side

Price was unable to reach the February High. This is the 5th time in as many years that price gets to this general area but never gets passed it. It has been locked in this $250.00 Range (25000 ticks) for 3 years which is great for swing traders.

For Long term traders and Fibonacci lovers Gold has not passed the 1400.00 mark in 5 years which just happens to be right around 0.382 of your fib from the 2011 high and the 2015 Low.

Fundamentals

Fed chairman Powell’s comments on the future redeployment of near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing likely helped Gold spike upwards. Trade tensions between USA and China also helped price this week as investors and traders leave old faithful US Index ETFs such as SPY ( SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) for a safe haven like Gold. The SPY had outflows of nearly $5 billion in a 1 week period while about 20% of that outflow when to SPDR Gold ETF in the same time period. The rest moved into Treasuries.

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Gold 06052019.png
Size: 86 KB
Be humble or get humbled
 
1
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:48pm Jun 5, 2019 9:48pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,585 Posts
Quoting riclater211
Disliked
Gold has not passed the 1400.00 mark in 5 years
Ignored
I'm looking at this price myself, but more because of the resistance that's built up. It looks like we're headed there, and I'm trading with that in mind. I have no guess about breaking 1400 though, I think that will depend on what happens with trade (and maybe war).
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:51pm Jun 5, 2019 9:51pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,585 Posts
I noticed this interesting disparity today...
Attached Image


If gold is moving without the silver, I think that means the market is looking at geopolitical risk.
 
2
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:14pm Jun 5, 2019 10:14pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,634 Posts | Online Now
It's hard to argue against being long gold right now, but this recent rally started on the Mexican 5% tariff news. Trade wars and more tariff drama fueled the rally even more. Congress is pushing back, and there's a chance that these tariffs won't stick. If news comes out about Trump pulling back the tariffs, gold could fall hard and fast. It would probably at least come back closer to around the 1300 levels. I'm out of gold but that's an opportunity I think I'd jump on if it happens.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
 
1
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:21pm Jun 5, 2019 10:21pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,585 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
Disliked
this recent rally
Ignored
You're talking about the one that started May 30? If so I like the thesis.
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:22pm Jun 5, 2019 10:22pm
  •  riclater211
  • | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Silver

Despite this weeks 4% up swing, Silver continues to slide further from its February high.

Tech Side

Silvers woes continue as this weeks up swing was most likely Shorts cashing out. We have seen Silver decline 12% in only 90ish days which is a great return for the Shorts but bad news for those with hard Silver in their portfolio. A lot of folks believe (hoping in my opinion) that Silver is at its bottom and is do for a upswing. Well folks, just like Gold, this bottom is 5 years old. Unlike Gold, Silvers price range is tightening. I am looking for price to get passed 16.00 on the upside and 14.00 to the downside before I can take any serious positions in Silver. Until then I will take advantage of the swings when I deem it worthy.

Fundamentals

Silver prices have taken a significant beating since 2011. It has lost over 70% in value. Any long term shorts of Silver are very happy indeed. Silver is still declining do to a global slow down in electronics as well traders and investors just not having faith in the shiny metal. There really is no good news for Silver. Unless we see a upswing in global demand for electronics of all types or a new reason other than investing to get the motor running for Silver, I just see a continuation of this ranging. At this moment I would rather hold a a 2.5% CD for a year than hold Silver for a year. Just saying.

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Silver 06052019.png
Size: 101 KB
Be humble or get humbled
 
1
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:35pm Jun 5, 2019 10:35pm
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,585 Posts
Quoting riclater211
Disliked
Fundamentals Silver prices have taken a significant beating since 2011. It has lost over 70% in value. Any long term shorts of Silver are very happy indeed. Silver is still declining do to a global slow down in electronics as well traders and investors just not having faith in the shiny metal. There really is no good news for Silver. Unless we see a upswing in global demand for electronics of all types or a new reason other than investing to get the motor running for Silver, I just see a continuation of this ranging.
Ignored
Question for you Ric since you seem to have good insight into the electronics angle. In terms of Silver price drivers, what percentage do you think is attributed to industrial demand, and what percentage is about the store-of-value?

For example, pretty much everyone agrees that Gold is 99% store-of-value, 1% industrial (if that). But when it comes to Silver, I've heard people say it's as high as 90% store-of-value, and others says it's as low as 30%. What's your take?
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:36pm Jun 5, 2019 10:36pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,634 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Goat
Disliked
{quote} You're talking about the one that started May 30? If so I like the thesis.
Ignored
Yes. The announcement via his Twitter account came late Thursday around 7:30pm. A case could be made that GDP triggered this rally if you're looking at the larger time frames. It's not until you zoom it that it becomes more clear that the tariff chaos drove gold prices higher. I think that US-China trade spat fueled the move, along with bond yields inverting (or at least trying to).
Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:39pm Jun 5, 2019 11:39pm
  •  tzamo
  • Joined Nov 2017 | Status: Member | 787 Posts
Quoting Goat
Disliked
{quote} Question for you Ric since you seem to have good insight into the electronics angle. In terms of Silver price drivers, what percentage do you think is attributed to industrial demand, and what percentage is about the store-of-value? For example, pretty much everyone agrees that Gold is 99% store-of-value, 1% industrial (if that). But when it comes to Silver, I've heard people say it's as high as 90% store-of-value, and others says it's as low as 30%. What's your take?
Ignored
Dear Goat,

I hope Ric doesn't mind me contributing this table:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 355 KB


Also, I have come across some other interesting charts on gold that show about 3%-8%* is used in technology. See Below, first is production and the 2nd is annual uses.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot2.png
Size: 43 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot3.png
Size: 43 KB


*My rough estimate from the charts.

It is surprising to me that ~300 tonnes of gold was used in electronics, which can eventually be recovered as the recycling becomes more and more in focus.

Best Regards,
Tzamo
"Only you can Make the Future you will be proud to be a part of..." -Me
 
4
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:44pm Jun 5, 2019 11:44pm
  •  riclater211
  • | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting Goat
Disliked
{quote} Question for you Ric since you seem to have good insight into the electronics angle. In terms of Silver price drivers, what percentage do you think is attributed to industrial demand, and what percentage is about the store-of-value? For example, pretty much everyone agrees that Gold is 99% store-of-value, 1% industrial (if that). But when it comes to Silver, I've heard people say it's as high as 90% store-of-value, and others says it's as low as 30%. What's your take?
Ignored
Hey Goat, I would say industrial demand is in the higher end of 30%. Maybe around 20% ish for investments but that number has been slipping for years. 90% for investment purposes? Not in my lifetime. Its peek was during its bull run from 2009 to 2011 as everyone jumped on that train. I think, I will have to research it, it may have reached 40% passing industrial, but that came crashing down fast.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:46pm Jun 5, 2019 11:46pm
  •  riclater211
  • | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting tzamo
Disliked
{quote} Dear Goat, I hope Ric doesn't mind me contributing this table: {image} Also, I have come across some other interesting charts on gold that show about 3%-5% is used in technology. See Below, first is production and the 2nd is annual uses. {image} {image} It is surprising to me that ~300 tonnes of gold was used in electronics, which can eventually be recovered as the recycling becomes more and more in focus. Best Regards, Tzamo
Ignored
Hey tzamo,

Your all good. This is why I stared the thread. Thanks for the input.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:53pm Jun 5, 2019 11:53pm
  •  riclater211
  • | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting tzamo
Disliked
{quote} Dear Goat, I hope Ric doesn't mind me contributing this table: {image} Also, I have come across some other interesting charts on gold that show about 3%-8%* is used in technology. See Below, first is production and the 2nd is annual uses. {image} {image} *My rough estimate from the charts. It is surprising to me that ~300 tonnes of gold was used in electronics, which can eventually be recovered as the recycling becomes more and more in focus. Best Regards, Tzamo
Ignored
300 tonnes. 9645224 Troy OZ. $12,837,793,144. Wow..

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 12:50am Jun 6, 2019 12:50am
  •  Goat
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: FREE ROSS | 1,585 Posts
Quoting tzamo
Disliked
{quote} Dear Goat, I hope Ric doesn't mind me contributing this table: {image} Also, I have come across some other interesting charts on gold that show about 3%-8%* is used in technology. See Below, first is production and the 2nd is annual uses. {image} {image} *My rough estimate from the charts. It is surprising to me that ~300 tonnes of gold was used in electronics, which can eventually be recovered as the recycling becomes more and more in focus. Best Regards, Tzamo
Ignored
Thanks a bunch Tzamo! I'm spent for the night but will be looking into your information tomorrow.

Quoting riclater211
Disliked
{quote} Hey Goat, I would say industrial demand is in the higher end of 30%. Maybe around 20% ish for investments but that number has been slipping for years. 90% for investment purposes? Not in my lifetime. Its peek was during its bull run from 2009 to 2011 as everyone jumped on that train. I think, I will have to research it, it may have reached 40% passing industrial, but that came crashing down fast. - Ric
Ignored
My man, appreciate the expert perspective.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 12:59am Jun 6, 2019 12:59am
  •  EF5
  • Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Member | 880 Posts
I find this monthly chart of gold fascinating:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 105 KB


It has been making a series of higher lows since Dec 2015 and volatility has been contracting. There could be a lot of upside ahead if it breaks out from the ~1,375 level and it's easy to build a fundamental case around that scenario playing out.

Also, check out implied volatility for GLD. It just made in a cyclical low in April:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot3.png
Size: 113 KB


Put it all together and things look very auspicious for gold.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 11:51am Jun 6, 2019 11:51am
  •  Metallurgy
  • Joined Jun 2019 | Status: Member | 259 Posts
Quoting tzamo
Disliked
It is surprising to me that ~300 tonnes of gold was used in electronics
Ignored
That is surprising, electronics (especially semiconductor) has been on a downward trend for the past year: http://www.ipc.org/3.0_Industry/3.1_...9/June2019.pdf
Attached Image
GOLD All Time Return: 113.2%
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 12:00pm Jun 6, 2019 12:00pm
  •  DonPato
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 1,509 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
Disliked
... but this recent rally started on the Mexican 5% tariff news. Trade wars and more tariff drama fueled the rally even more. Congress is pushing back, and there's a chance that these tariffs won't stick. If news comes out about Trump pulling back the tariffs, gold could fall hard and fast. It would probably at least come back closer to around the 1300 levels. I'm out of gold but that's an opportunity I think I'd jump on if it happens.
Ignored
I completely agree with this as well. However, with tensions building and NFP tomorrow, I think prices may get a bit volatile and give a "FU stop" on both sides of the fence before moving which ever way they're going to move. I've tightened stops on my long position to protect profits but that may be all I get, if prices become volatile
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 1:04pm Jun 6, 2019 1:04pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,634 Posts | Online Now
Quoting DonPato
Disliked
{quote} I completely agree with this as well. However, with tensions building and NFP tomorrow, I think prices may get a bit volatile and give a "FU stop" on both sides of the fence before moving which ever way they're going to move. I've tightened stops on my long position to protect profits but that may be all I get, if prices become volatile
Ignored
Well put. It's never worth getting into the market late Thursday before the data. You end up either taking a stop to avoid holding through the data, or letting NFP decide your fate.

Tight stops right now is a smart play. Any reversal in these Mexican tariffs will initially hit gold pretty hard. As I'm just catching up on recent news, it doesn't look like there's much of a chance of that happening. Those gold long trades might not be done yet. Quite the rally.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 1:49pm Jun 6, 2019 1:49pm
  •  DonPato
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 1,509 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
Disliked
... Those gold long trades might not be done yet. Quite the rally.
Ignored
Who knows...there is still plenty of buying at the highs...and I am within striking distance of my TP...I've moved the stop up now as well...

Want to place a bet on which one is hit first? I'm betting the stop (just 'cause I'm a cynic)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 38 KB
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 2:01pm Jun 6, 2019 2:01pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,634 Posts | Online Now
Quoting DonPato
Disliked
Want to place a bet on which one is hit first? I'm betting the stop (just 'cause I'm a cynic) {image}
Ignored
You got yourself a bet. I'll take the TP. I hope I'm right for your sake.

After this gold trade, there may be another opportunity nobody's talking about:
Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
 
 
  • Interactive Trading
  • /
  • Metals Mash Up
  • Reply to Thread
    • Page 1 23456 7
    • Page 1 234 7
0 traders viewing now
  • More
Top of Page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
About MM
  • Mission
  • Products
  • User Guide
  • Blog
  • Contact
MM Products
  • Forums
  • Calendar
  • News
  • Market
MM Website
  • Homepage
  • Search
  • Members
  • Report a Bug
Follow MM
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

MM Sister Sites:

  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft
  • Forex Factory

Metals Mine™ is a brand of Fair Economy, Inc.

Terms of Service / ©2023