Metals Mash Up | Page 2 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can an American trade all metals and oil on an MT4 demo? 11 replies

Base Metals 12 replies

OTC metals trading to become illegal? 20 replies

trading currencies or metals? 9 replies

Attachments: Metals Mash Up
Exit Attachments

Metals Mash Up

  • #21
  • Edited 10:11pm Jun 6, 2019 9:57pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting tzamo
this table: {image}
Wow, OK well that's some hard evidence right there.

In 2018 there was 1B oz of silver produced, with 213M oz sold as jewelry, 181M as coins/bars, 61M as silverware. Industrial use was 579M.

If you consider jewelry, coins/bars, and silverware as store-of-value, that means we're looking at 455M vs 579M. Ie 55% of silver's price is driven by industry.

Am I missing anything there?

Quoting tzamo
It is surprising to me that ~300 tonnes of gold was used in electronics, which can eventually be recovered as the recycling becomes more and more in focus.
I think pretty much all gold is recovered these days. With such big treasures abound, the scrap industry around gold is really intelligent! Have you ever watched those gold extraction videos on youtube?!? Pretty awesome.
Inserted Video


About that 3% industrial usage number, that seems high to me, but I see how you're getting it. I'm looking for some other supporting evidence.
  • #22
  • Jun 6, 2019 10:16pm Jun 6, 2019 10:16pm
Quoting Ef5
Put it all together and things look very auspicious for gold.
I think you are right. And, I am highly agnostic on silver as well.

Quoting tzamo
I hope Ric doesn't mind me contributing this table:
Thanks Tzamo! Some excellent analysis.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #23
  • Edited 8:10am Jun 7, 2019 2:44am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting Goat
I think pretty much all gold is recovered these days.
At least from Earth. The asteroid called 16 Psyche is a massive hunk of precious metals including platinum and gold as well as iron and nickel. It orbits the sun between Mars and Jupiter and is of great scientific interest because it holds clues to one of the earliest eras in the history of our solar system — less than 10 million years after the birth of our sun. But now it’s grabbed the attention of money-hungry entrepreneurs and investors thanks to its stratospheric price tag. Valued at $10,000 quadrillion, according to Lindy Elkins-Tanton, the lead scientist on the NASA mission, it is definitely worth more than its weight in gold.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/p...iew/index.html
  • #24
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:32am Jun 7, 2019 7:32am
Quoting Elements
{quote} At least from Earth. The asteroid, called 16 Psyche, is a massive hunk of precious metals including platinum and gold as well as iron and nickel.
Never fail to learn some interesting tidbits in these forums.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #25
  • Jun 7, 2019 4:02pm Jun 7, 2019 4:02pm
Well damn... I took myself out early and missed out on hitting my target. Missed out on 2000 more ticks. Oh well. 20 years of trading and I can still psych myself out. The truth is there is no way for me to know. I can take solace that, I was right about my target.

We shall see what happens next.

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold 06072019.png Size: 90 KB
Be humble or get humbled
  • #26
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:12pm Jun 7, 2019 7:12pm
Copper

Copper, like Silver, has been on a steady decline also since February of this year. The worlds favorite Red metal has taken a beating like other metals. What is up? Let us take a look.

Tech Side

Price really tried to get past $3.00 a LB US this year, A level not seen since mid 2018. Alas no luck. The $3.00 area was rubbed up against from late February to mid April before succumbing to downward pressure and crashing 13% in 6 weeks. Not exactly high hopes for Long positions in the Red metal. Currently the floor seems to be between the $2.60 - $2.50 level for support. If price makes it past that our next major support level is not until $2.20 level according to my trend line. We may see a cashing out of positions which may cause a small spike.

Fundamentals

Construction accounts for more than 40% of Coppers use world wide. Globally, new construction has been on a slow down and all this talk of Tariffs and trade war is not exactly helping. To be honest, out of the remaining 55-60% of uses , only consumer products has seen a marginal uptick. The rest being transportation equipment, industrial machinery & electrical uses have all been stagnant to lower.

A lot of Copper traders, or should I say EX-Copper traders, including many of my colleagues believe Copper is a dead cat. I for one only started trading Metals other than Gold very recently, so my over all experience in trading them is limited. However, trading is trading. Identify, research, decide. Same as any other investment.

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Copper 06072019.png Size: 90 KB
Be humble or get humbled
  • #27
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:32pm Jun 7, 2019 7:32pm
Hey All,

Another week in the books.

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1343.437 As of 06/07/2019) +2.70% Week +4.60% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (15.01219 As of 06/07/2019) +3.00% Week +0.75% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (806.791 As of 06/07/2019) +1.75% Week -6.25% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (1359.635 As of 06/07/2019) +2.20% Week +2.20% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (2.61815 As of 06/07/2019) -0.30% Week -8.30% in the last 4 weeks

Have A Great Weekend

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #28
  • Jun 8, 2019 9:24pm Jun 8, 2019 9:24pm
TY for this thread! Right up my alley!! Ima b quiet and stfu now... church is in session!
  • #29
  • Jun 11, 2019 12:15am Jun 11, 2019 12:15am
Did anyone carry positions over the weekend? Hope you did okay at the open.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #30
  • Jun 11, 2019 1:03am Jun 11, 2019 1:03am
Quoting riclater211
A lot of Copper traders, or should I say EX-Copper traders, including many of my colleagues believe Copper is a dead cat. I for one only started trading Metals other than Gold very recently, so my over all experience in trading them is limited. However, trading is trading. Identify, research, decide. Same as any other investment. - Ric {image}
Hey Ric, I've just recently gotten into Copper myself. Still trying to find some angles to trade it. It seems like China news, mining strikes and general economic growth sentiment are the way to go. It's the world's third most used metal due to its versatility and relatively inexpensive.

Btw, why do your colleagues think it is a dead cat? Just curious before I spend a long time studying it. It seems to have some pretty lengthy trends which would make me feel like there are opportunities there. For example -

4 hour bear trend:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture.png Size: 14 KB


Daily bear trend:
Attached Image
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #31
  • Jun 11, 2019 1:30am Jun 11, 2019 1:30am
Quoting EventsTrader
It's hard to argue against being long gold right now, but this recent rally started on the Mexican 5% tariff news. Trade wars and more tariff drama fueled the rally even more. Congress is pushing back, and there's a chance that these tariffs won't stick. If news comes out about Trump pulling back the tariffs, gold could fall hard and fast. It would probably at least come back closer to around the 1300 levels. I'm out of gold but that's an opportunity I think I'd jump on if it happens.
Hey EventsTrader, I'm a day late on this but you were exactly right about the tariffs driving the market. The Friday tweet caused a big weekend gap just as your thesis would have it. You have a new subscriber my friend.
  • #32
  • Jun 11, 2019 1:10pm Jun 11, 2019 1:10pm
Quoting Goat
{quote} Hey EventsTrader, I'm a day late on this but you were exactly right about the tariffs driving the market. The Friday tweet caused a big weekend gap just as your thesis would have it. You have a new subscriber my friend.
Thanks Goat! I'm enjoying your Gold RIGHT NOW thread. It's nice to have a new buddy in my network to navigate these markets with. Traders unite!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #33
  • Jun 11, 2019 3:30pm Jun 11, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting GoldGrilz
TY for this thread! Right up my alley!! Ima b quiet and stfu now... church is in session!
Hey GoldGrilz,

You are very welcome. I just thought it would be a good idea to have 1 place where semi-pro and pro traders could chat about the most popular traded metals. Look forward to your contributions.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #34
  • Jun 11, 2019 3:56pm Jun 11, 2019 3:56pm
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} Hey Ric, I've just recently gotten into Copper myself. Still trying to find some angles to trade it. It seems like China news, mining strikes and general economic growth sentiment are the way to go. It's the world's third most used metal due to its versatility and relatively inexpensive. Btw, why do your colleagues think it is a dead cat? Just curious before I spend a long time studying it. It seems to have some pretty lengthy trends which would make me feel like there are opportunities there. For example - 4 hour bear trend: {image} Daily...
Hey Bulltrap.

I agree with you that China news is one of the bigger catalysts to get Copper moving. I will say however, keep your eyes and ears on Africa. Africa is quickly becoming China's China. It is becoming cheaper for Chinese Firms to build, hire and train in Africa than it is in China. China's rapidly growing middle class is putting a strain on cheap labor. Also pay attention to Chile and Peru.

Price has been stuck in a range for years which is a good segue into why my colleagues do not like it anymore. We argue about Africa and China all the time. Price has been bouncing around for 3 years. They do not like the overall risk profile for copper. They believe that their margin could be better utilized in Options and Forex. It costs us a little over $50,000 in margin for a full lot in Copper while they can trade USD/CLP 25x for the same amount.

That is them. I still prefer to trade metals. Even just to keep my trading sharp. Sure its expensive, but the experience is priceless.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #35
  • Jun 11, 2019 5:25pm Jun 11, 2019 5:25pm
PLATINUM

Ah Platinum. The middle child of the gray and shiny metals. Yet another victim of a crashing metals market.

Tech Side

Currently Platinum is is only 55.00 off its 15 year low 760.00. This level was last seen in August 2008 when price on Platinum came crashing down over 67% in 6 months from its all time high of 2300.00. For the past nearly 8 years price has continued to slide further down. There has been some opportunity to grab some pips but I would be wary of any long term positions in either direction. Only recently have we seen a small chance of reversal with May 31st low being higher than February 14ths low. We shall wait and see.

Fundamentals

50% of demand for platinum is used in the automotive space. Primarily it is used in catalytic converters for cars, trucks and buses as well as many parts such as spark plugs. This accounts for about 50% of demand each year. Platinum converts vehicle emissions into less harmful waste products. The other half is used in jewelry, industrial chemical, medicine/dentistry and to a limited degree some electronics like LCDs.

Global Auto sales have been flat for the last 4 years or so. The issue however is that a growing portion of those sales are for EVs. Pure EVs like Tesla have no need for catalytic converters. Sure at this time pure EVs make up less than 5% of all vehicles sold across the world but that number grows faster each year. This is going to be a problem for platinum.

For now, I say take advantage of short term swings and stay away from long term any metal, not just Platinum.

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Platinum 06112019.png Size: 94 KB
Be humble or get humbled
  • #36
  • Jun 11, 2019 10:30pm Jun 11, 2019 10:30pm
Quoting riclater211
Global Auto sales have been flat for the last 4 years or so. The issue however is that a growing portion of those sales are for EVs. Pure EVs like Tesla have no need for catalytic converters. Sure at this time pure EVs make up less than 5% of all vehicles sold across the world but that number grows faster each year. This is going to be a problem for platinum.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on platinum, I learned quite a bit from reading your post. I’m curious, do you think we will ever see the day where platinum is worth more than gold again?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #37
  • Jun 11, 2019 11:04pm Jun 11, 2019 11:04pm
Quoting riclater211
Fundamentals

50% of demand for platinum is used in the automotive space. Primarily it is used in catalytic converters for cars, trucks and buses as well as many parts such as spark plugs. This accounts for about 50% of demand each year. Platinum converts vehicle emissions into less harmful waste products. The other half is used in jewelry, industrial chemical, medicine/dentistry and to a limited degree some electronics like LCDs.

Global Auto sales have been flat for the last 4 years or so. The issue however is that a growing portion...
Great info Ric! Thanks for the insights. It doesn't bode well for South Africa if demand drops. They produce 70% of the world's newly mined platinum.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #38
  • Jun 12, 2019 12:50am Jun 12, 2019 12:50am
Quoting riclater211
PLATINUM Ah Platinum. The middle child of the gray and shiny metals. Yet another victim of a crashing metals market. Tech Side Currently Platinum is is only 55.00 off its 15 year low 760.00. This level was last seen in August 2008 when price on Platinum came crashing down over 67% in 6 months from its all time high of 2300.00. For the past nearly 8 years price has continued to slide further down. There has been some opportunity to grab some pips but I would be wary of any long term positions in either direction. Only recently have we seen a small...
Excellent post. Thx Riclater. I am always ears for learning on all metals!
  • #39
  • Jun 12, 2019 1:34am Jun 12, 2019 1:34am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey Bulltrap. I agree with you that China news is one of the bigger catalysts to get Copper moving. I will say however, keep your eyes and ears on Africa. Africa is quickly becoming China's China. It is becoming cheaper for Chinese Firms to build, hire and train in Africa than it is in China. China's rapidly growing middle class is putting a strain on cheap labor. Also pay attention to Chile and Peru. Price has been stuck in a range for years which is a good segue into why my colleagues do not like it anymore. We argue about Africa and China...
Thanks for the info Ric. I see your point about why people want to stay away from copper.

Personally I still find it interesting. Markets are so intertwined that learning about an instrument is always valuable even if you don’t trade it often.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #40
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:53pm Jun 12, 2019 2:53pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Thanks for sharing your thoughts on platinum, I learned quite a bit from reading your post. I’m curious, do you think we will ever see the day where platinum is worth more than gold again?
Hey Ef5,

Your welcome. Just trying to do my part to aid fellow traders. About your question. Ever is long time. Anything can happen in the markets. However, let us look a bit deeper on what is wrong with Platinum itself.

Investment Demand is low

The volumes for trading Platinum are low. The image attached shows Platinum futures volumes contracts for the next 12 months. Copper has nearly 5 times the volume.

Buyers Remorse

In the bull run from 2001 to 2008 a lot of people made a lot of money. Platinum was called 'Rich Mans Gold". In 2008, between the months July, August and September, Platinum lost nearly 60% of value. It was a devastating hit to long term investors who got in during the last 2 years. The next 2 years was a reprieve but ever since than it has been the death of 1000 cuts for those long term buyers as true fundamentals took over.

Any hope for value?

Not anytime soon I'm afraid. In order for Platinum to come pack to any sort of prominence there are a few things that need to happen:

1) Golds value needs to increase but at a slower rate

2) Investor sentiment needs to change

3) Dollar value needs to diminish

4) New uses for Platinum need to be discovered

5) Supply needs to drop

That is a lot of hurdles Platinum needs to get through. Not saying it can't do it. I'm just saying.

- Ric

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: platinum Volume 06122019.png Size: 68 KB
Be humble or get humbled
0 traders viewing now