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Metals Mash Up

  • #61
  • Jun 19, 2019 1:31pm Jun 19, 2019 1:31pm
Quoting riclater211
Another concerning matter is Gold is drifting upwards. It may be slow and ugly but it is drifting up on the tech front. Higher lows being the predominant trait currently. At the same time Silver is drifting lower and further separating from Gold. Is negative correlation becoming the norm for Gold and Silver?
I've been watching this ratio like hawk too (no pun intended, just past the FOMC). I see this as a short term separation. People are scared and anticipating chaos, so they head toward shelter with gold. Eventually when things get real and everyone wants shelter, gold will really break out of course. Then I think silver will have to catch up. Do you see some fundamental change that has altered the relationship between gold and silver?
  • #62
  • Jun 20, 2019 6:23am Jun 20, 2019 6:23am
I am seeing Silver chart and looks like it has made some sort of bottom near $13.45 and is ready to move higher. A move above $16.15 would add lots of momentum to the rally.

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  • #63
  • Jun 20, 2019 3:22pm Jun 20, 2019 3:22pm
Quoting bigtx
{quote} I've been watching this ratio like hawk too (no pun intended, just past the FOMC). I see this as a short term separation. People are scared and anticipating chaos, so they head toward shelter with gold. Eventually when things get real and everyone wants shelter, gold will really break out of course. Then I think silver will have to catch up. Do you see some fundamental change that has altered the relationship between gold and silver?
The thing is Silver is just not as popular as it was. Not with private equity, not with individuals or with governments. I do not see how or why a major turn around is likely. On a long term view, I will not even consider a recovery until price passes $20.00.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #64
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:15pm Jun 20, 2019 10:15pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} The thing is Silver is just not as popular as it was. Not with private equity, not with individuals or with governments. I do not see how or why a major turn around is likely. On a long term view, I will not even consider a recovery until price passes $20.00. - Ric
It’s really amazing what the gold/silver ratio has done this year. That said, if it hits 100 I don’t think I’ll be able to resist buying silver.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #65
  • Jun 21, 2019 4:20pm Jun 21, 2019 4:20pm
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} It’s really amazing what the gold/silver ratio has done this year. That said, if it hits 100 I don’t think I’ll be able to resist buying silver.
Hey bulltrap,

I have been eyeing $26.00 for Silver on a major, longer term position with $32.00 looking like a good spot take some, if not all profit.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #66
  • Jun 21, 2019 4:44pm Jun 21, 2019 4:44pm
Hey All,

Another week in the books.

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1399.427) As of 06/21/2019) +4.30% Week +7.10% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (15.34667) As of 06/21/2019) +3.15% Week +5.30% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (810.06) As of 06/21/2019) +0.60 Week +2.20% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (1504.554) As of 06/21/2019) +2.50% Week +13.60% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (2.69579) As of 06/14/2019) +2.70% Week +2.60% in the last 4 weeks

A positive week for all the metals covered. Palladium outperformed all other metals (even Gold) by a huge margin in the last 4 weeks. Speaking of Gold, this weeks 4% + move was the largest 1 week positive gain since February 2018. Is the a sign of change? Are traders cashing in before all the drama of End of Month? Is it new money taking positions?

Man I have no freaking clue. We will just see what happens next week.

Have A Great Weekend

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #67
  • Jun 22, 2019 10:19pm Jun 22, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey bulltrap, I have been eyeing $26.00 for Silver on a major, longer term position with $32.00 looking like a good spot take some, if not all profit. - Ric
I could ride along on that trade. I bought physical silver recently but want to open up more exposure with an ETF buy.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #68
  • Jun 24, 2019 6:10am Jun 24, 2019 6:10am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} The thing is Silver is just not as popular as it was. Not with private equity, not with individuals or with governments. I do not see how or why a major turn around is likely. On a long term view, I will not even consider a recovery until price passes $20.00. - Ric
Interesting to hear how negative you are on silver. Gives me caution about my previous excitement. That last week was wild, can't wait to see where we're headed next!
  • #69
  • Jun 24, 2019 6:53am Jun 24, 2019 6:53am
Quoting riclater211
Hey All, Another week in the books. This is how the Metals Mashed up this week: Gold (1399.427) As of 06/21/2019) +4.30% Week +7.10% in the last 4 weeks Silver (15.34667) As of 06/21/2019) +3.15% Week +5.30% in the last 4 weeks Platinum (810.06) As of 06/21/2019) +0.60 Week +2.20% in the last 4 weeks Palladium (1504.554) As of 06/21/2019) +2.50% Week +13.60% in the last 4 weeks Copper (2.69579) As of 06/14/2019) +2.70% Week +2.60% in the last 4 weeks A positive week for all the metals covered. Palladium outperformed all other metals (even Gold)...
Dear Ric, Are you still keeping track? Gold broke 8.00% for the month and up today around 0.81% from the time of writing. With 4 days to go until the end of the month, do you think we can expect gold to end on around 10% for the month?
"Work hard, put in the effort, and follow your dreams..." -Me
  • #70
  • Jun 24, 2019 9:34am Jun 24, 2019 9:34am
Lots of intraday selling on Silver. Like Gold we are near the top of a weekly range. Some of the selling is left over from Friday's "end of day" exits. What I'm failing to see is that price is responding to all this selling...a BAD sign for my shorts.
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  • #71
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:32pm Jun 24, 2019 4:32pm
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} I could ride along on that trade. I bought physical silver recently but want to open up more exposure with an ETF buy.
Hey bulltrap,

The most popular Silver ETF currently is iShares Silver Trust (Ticker SLV) and has a decent expense ratio of 0.50% and a 5 year return of over -28%. Last close was 14.46. I have a comparison chart added below. White line is Oanda Spot price.

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #72
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:36pm Jun 24, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting bigtx
{quote} Interesting to hear how negative you are on silver. Gives me caution about my previous excitement. That last week was wild, can't wait to see where we're headed next!
Hey bigtx,

I just read what the charts show. No matter what anyone says in reports or all those talking heads trying to get people to listen to them, the chart and price is the absolute truth.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #73
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:51pm Jun 24, 2019 4:51pm
Quoting tzamo
{quote} Dear Ric, Are you still keeping track? Gold broke 8.00% for the month and up today around 0.81% from the time of writing. With 4 days to go until the end of the month, do you think we can expect gold to end on around 10% for the month?
Hey tzamo,

I am indeed tracking Gold. I took a trade and was net 2.3%. Looking for re-entry passed 1440.00 with a goal around 1600.00. As of today, price is up a dash over 8% in the last 4 weeks and just above 7.5% for the calendar year. We will see what happens by weeks end. 10% for for the month and the week is doable, but it can easily turn around if traders decide to cash out some profit.

Be aware though that the Fed Chair Powell Speaks tomorrow, Core Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday and Final GDP on Thursday. That is a lot of heavy news. All of which can send Gold Soaring or falling down. I would not be long term LONG just yet on Gold. All this movement could be traders putting money in Gold while we wait for the news. Good news bye-bye gold. Bad news hello gold.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #74
  • Jun 25, 2019 10:26am Jun 25, 2019 10:26am
Quoting riclater211
, the chart and price is the absolute truth
Absolutely right. Always has been, always will be! I've been proven wrong recently so I am collecting myself and trying to figure out where I was wrong.
  • #75
  • Jun 26, 2019 3:54pm Jun 26, 2019 3:54pm
PALLADIUM

Palladium. It is the current king of silvery-white metallic elements by price and performance. In fact, it is currently more valuable than GOLD!!! 60% of it is used in the auto industry. It is used like Platinum as it is from the same family. The rest of it is spread over the same industries as its more dense brother Platinum. So why the high value? Why is it worth more than Gold? Lets see what we can find out.

Tech Side

If you look at the attached chart you will notice something that most non-traders (and more than a few actual traders I found out) did not know. Palladium took over Gold nearly 2 years ago and it has been pulling away with no sign of stopping. Funny that Bloomberg, CNBC and other major financial news outlets do not really talk about this money making opportunity. Just like how they shy away from Forex. Think about that for a minute. Another interesting thing to note. Current Palladium pricing seems to be hitting the same wall that every other metal hit. Take a look. It is not about price, its that same area. 1st Platinum hit it, then Silver and then Gold. Gold tried real hard to break that area but it did not happen. Now Palladium is at that same level.

Platinum fell over 86% after reaching those heights in 2008. Silver took a 4 year 80% nose dive after that. Gold did not do as bad but still took a massive hit of -55% in the same 4 year period. What will happen with Platinum? You can not deny that it looks like a "BIG SHORT " is likely with Palladium. Right?

Fundamentals

It is damn rare even as rare earth elements go. In parts per billion, Palladium is the rarest of the metals we focus on. Less than 1 part per billion. Gold is 4, Silver is 75 and Platinum is about 5. Palladium and Platinum are both used equally well in the Auto industry. Price is a factor as Auto makers want to cut costs. Diesel engines work better with Platinum, Electric Vehicle makers prefer Palladium for the fuel cells but the high price is making them think twice. High end car makers like Palladium. Palladium can be used in nearly every place that Platinum is used. I am asking why would they? It used to be that Palladium was the new darling because Platinum was more expensive. Now the opposite is true but I see no slow down in Palladium use.

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #76
  • Jun 27, 2019 10:32am Jun 27, 2019 10:32am
Lots of churning going on in Silver at the moment. Active sellers were at the high shown here, but today appears like an order flow "inversion". Highs of the day shows the buyers, and the lows of the day show sellers...both are getting frustrated and stopping out, creating the "churning" effect. It is now a "crap shoot" to see which side will cave in first.

As is seen here I am short...and like my Gold position, I got in too early. So obviously I'm cheering any new wave of selling going on...
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  • #77
  • Jun 28, 2019 2:49pm Jun 28, 2019 2:49pm
Look like the order flow "inversion" in Silver has resolved...selling at the top now and buying at the bottom...ranging. And I dare say a "stable" range.
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  • #78
  • Jun 28, 2019 9:39pm Jun 28, 2019 9:39pm
Hey All,

Another week in the books and good bye June,

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1409.407) As of 06/28/2019) +0.75% Week +7.40% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (15.31696) As of 06/28/2019) -0.30% Week +5.00% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (835.462) As of 06/28/2019) +2.50% Week +5.10% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (1539.696) As of 06/28/2019) +2.50% Week +13.75% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (2.71440) As of 06/28/2019) +0.80% Week +3.80% in the last 4 weeks

Gold tried its best but to no avail. While most market participants saw Gold soar, I saw it as a failure to recover. 1440.00 was not defeated again. Now while it is true this level has not been seen in 6 years, the problem is this same level caused a drop in price for over 2 years before even starting to recover.

The hero's this week are Platinum and Palladium. Both managed to gain over 2% but it just seems nothing can touch Palladium. I really want to see price past 1660.00. If so there is no ceiling. Current price is record highs. Palladium has been a uptrend since as far back as 1977. Palladium is easily the best metals trade all year.

Next trading day starts a new month and the summer season. Get outside and have some fun.

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #79
  • Jun 29, 2019 8:46am Jun 29, 2019 8:46am
Quoting riclater211
Hey All, Another week in the books and good bye June, This is how the Metals Mashed up this week: Gold (1409.407) As of 06/28/2019) +0.75% Week +7.40% in the last 4 weeks Silver (15.31696) As of 06/28/2019) -0.30% Week +5.00% in the last 4 weeks Platinum (835.462) As of 06/28/2019) +2.50% Week +5.10% in the last 4 weeks Palladium (1539.696) As of 06/28/2019) +2.50% Week +13.75% in the last 4 weeks Copper (2.71440) As of 06/28/2019) +0.80% Week +3.80% in the last 4 weeks Gold tried its best but to no avail. While most market participants saw Gold...
Another week of gold and silver moving in opposite directions... crazy stuff going on.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #80
  • Jul 1, 2019 1:26pm Jul 1, 2019 1:26pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey All, Another week in the books and good bye June, This is how the Metals Mashed up this week
It was an interesting week. I need to look into palladium.
If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don't buy gold.
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