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Metals Mash Up

  • #41
  • Jun 12, 2019 3:32pm Jun 12, 2019 3:32pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Great info Ric! Thanks for the insights. It doesn't bode well for South Africa if demand drops. They produce 70% of the world's newly mined platinum.
Hey EventsTrader,

Yes indeed.165 metric tons (110 from South Africa) was mined in 2018. That is 17% less than 2017. In fact Platinum mining has been on the decline ( with 2017 as an exception) since 2014. The demand just inst there.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #42
  • Jun 12, 2019 3:33pm Jun 12, 2019 3:33pm
Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Excellent post. Thx Riclater. I am always ears for learning on all metals!
Hey swagtrading,

Welcome as a new member and thank you.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #43
  • Jun 12, 2019 3:37pm Jun 12, 2019 3:37pm
Hey All interested in Platinum.

I just got the WPIC 2019 Q1 report for Platinum. I have attached it. I have yet to read it so I may have to change my views depending on this report.

Let me know what you think.

- Ric
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q1_2019.pdf   2.0 MB | 929 downloads
File Type: pdf WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q1_2019_Presentation.pdf   1.4 MB | 625 downloads
File Type: xlsx WPIC_PQ_tables_Q1_2019.xlsx   40 KB | 479 downloads
Be humble or get humbled
  • #44
  • Jun 12, 2019 6:13pm Jun 12, 2019 6:13pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey All interested in Platinum. I just got the WPIC 2019 Q1 report for Platinum. I have attached it. I have yet to read it so I may have to change my views depending on this report. Let me know what you think. - Ric {image} {image} {file}
Those documents are through Q1. That's as current as their is right now. I hope to read at least some of it later tonight. Thanks for posting that. That's really good info.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #45
  • Jun 12, 2019 7:03pm Jun 12, 2019 7:03pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey All interested in Platinum. I just got the WPIC 2019 Q1 report for Platinum. I have attached it. I have yet to read it so I may have to change my views depending on this report. Let me know what you think. - Ric {image} {image} {file}
Thanks Ric!

From the report, here's the story on Platinum demand. Looks like it's half industrial, half value store.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 164 KB
  • #46
  • Edited 8:14pm Jun 12, 2019 8:02pm | Edited 8:14pm
Hey all,

Got the Gold report for Q1 2019 as well and just added Silver. Lots of reading and analyzing. Will update later this week or next week on what I think after going through all this newest data.

- Ric
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf gdt-q1-2019.pdf   1.4 MB | 683 downloads
File Type: pptx gdt-q1-2019-charts.pptx   836 KB | 478 downloads
File Type: xlsx gdt-q1-2019-statistics.xlsx   614 KB | 474 downloads
File Type: pdf WSS2019V3.pdf   5.9 MB | 1,090 downloads
Be humble or get humbled
  • #47
  • Jun 12, 2019 10:47pm Jun 12, 2019 10:47pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey Ef5, Your welcome. Just trying to do my part to aid fellow traders. About your question. Ever is long time. Anything can happen in the markets. However, let us look a bit deeper on what is wrong with Platinum itself. Investment Demand is low The volumes for trading Platinum are low. The image attached shows Platinum futures volumes contracts for the next 12 months. Copper has nearly 5 times the volume. Buyers Remorse In the bull run from 2001 to 2008 a lot of people made a lot of money. Platinum was called 'Rich Mans Gold". In 2008,...
Thanks a lot for sharing all that Ric, much appreciated!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #48
  • Jun 12, 2019 11:26pm Jun 12, 2019 11:26pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey all, Got the Gold report for Q1 2019 as well and just added Silver. Lots of reading and analyzing. Will update later this week or next week on what I think after going through all this newest data. - Ric {image} {file} {file} {image}
This is some really good stuff. I had no idea that physical silver demand surpassed total supply, more years than not. I've been thinking about investing in some american eagles and possibly others like the maple leaf and kangaroo. I've been very undecided. This material is shining some light on some concerns I had. Great contribution!

Here is a table from your document, showing World Silver Supply and Demand. I had no idea that silverware accounted for 6% of total demand. Also somewhat of a surprise is that about 20% of demand every year comes from coins and bars. That's a lot higher than I thought it'd be. A lot of info to digest. Great info. Kudos Rick.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-2.png Size: 150 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #49
  • Jun 13, 2019 2:39pm Jun 13, 2019 2:39pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey all, Got the Gold report for Q1 2019 as well and just added Silver. Lots of reading and analyzing. Will update later this week or next week on what I think after going through all this newest data. - Ric {image} {file} {file} {image}
Very useful! Thanks for sharing. I'll be interested to see how you analyze it all.
  • #50
  • Jun 14, 2019 10:06am Jun 14, 2019 10:06am
Order flow aspect of Silver:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 35 KB

Sellers are hitting the market order button hot and heavy at the highs neare 15.10. I suspect most are taking profits from this last run, and its starting to look like a double top. If price can manage to start tagging the 14.84 area I suspect more selling, as longs holding for higher highs get stopped. For my part I am not interested in trading this short until I see an order flow "inversion". To date I have not yet seen that at least not on the daily chart.

I am more interested in buying around the 14.30 area.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #51
  • Jun 14, 2019 9:25pm Jun 14, 2019 9:25pm
Hey All,

Another week in the books.

This is how the Metals Mashed up this week:

Gold (1341.932) As of 06/14/2019) +0.10% Week +5.00% in the last 4 weeks

Silver (14.87161) As of 06/14/2019) -1.00% Week +3.30% in the last 4 weeks

Platinum (804.900) As of 06/14/2019) -0.25% Week -1.70% in the last 4 weeks

Palladium (1468.750) As of 06/14/2019) +8.00% Week +11.30% in the last 4 weeks

Copper (2.62489) As of 06/14/2019) +0.25% Week -2.50% in the last 4 weeks

I have not had a chance to go through the Metal reports. I will try and get started this weekend.

Have A Great Weekend

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #52
  • Jun 17, 2019 3:58pm Jun 17, 2019 3:58pm
Hey All,

After going over the Q1 Gold report, I do not see any real reason to change my outlook. According to the report Gold is flat overall. Big wow. That is what the charts show anyway. So no surprise there. 6 years of being stuck in a range. Again, I am talking about the BIG PICTURE. Sure lower time frames have some movement. Lets pay attention to a few things.

The majority of Gold that was used for investments came from central banks and ETF funds not from private individuals. In fact the percentage of you and me investors fell. That is not a good sign to me. Are they buying all that gold to get prices up in the short term to draw investors? Or do they really think price is going to head up?

Retail demand is down. Individuals buying bars and coins is down. Jewellery demand ticked higher but the reason why is not a good one. In China demand is down but it was up in India but only because prices are down in the middle of wedding season. So pure luck that prices and demand fell right before wedding time in India. Last but not least global sales of consumer electronics is also down so less Gold demand there.

So think for a second, the only people buying Gold right now are the Central Banks & ETF funds.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #53
  • Jun 17, 2019 4:25pm Jun 17, 2019 4:25pm
Attached Image
Attached Image

Quoting riclater211
The majority of Gold that was used for investments came from central banks and ETF funds not from private individuals.
Quoting riclater211
So think for a second, the only people buying Gold right now are the Central Banks & ETF funds.
Couldn't this also be taken as a sign of big money moving into safer assets ahead of what they might be foreseeing in the global economy? Should this be a signal to us smaller retail investors to start buying gold?
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #54
  • Jun 17, 2019 4:36pm Jun 17, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting riclater211
investments came from central banks and ETF funds not from private individuals. In fact the percentage of you and me investors fell. That is not a good sign to me. Are they buying all that gold to get prices up in the short term to draw investors? Or do they really think price is going to head up? Retail demand is down. Individuals buying bars and coins is down. Jewellery demand ticked higher but the reason why is not a good one. In China demand is down but it was up in India but only because prices are down in the middle of wedding season.
I feel as though this is a mixed bag. Whether right or wrong I usually consider retail and odd-lot sentiment to be a contrarian indicator. In the case of metals that are actually used for production things are less clear but for gold I still like to follow smart money..
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #55
  • Jun 17, 2019 4:50pm Jun 17, 2019 4:50pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{image}{image} {quote} {quote} Couldn't this also be taken as a sign of big money moving into safer assets ahead of what they might be foreseeing in the global economy? Should this be a signal to us smaller retail investors to start buying gold?
Hey EventsTrader,

I can see your point. But are they accomplishing what i was saying. "Follow the smart money" and all that. Big money is pouring money into something that nobody else is buying. Is it because as my hero Warren Buffet says, "When people are selling you should be buying"? Or is it to hide money in a safe-ish investment while the China VS USA & USA+Israel VS Iran thing subsides and maybe we should follow them.

That's why we call trading speculation. We get all the reliable info we can and make a decision. With that being said, I look at the charts as absolute truth. No matter what anyone says or does the proof is in price and market moves. Gold is flat. Has been for years.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #56
  • Jun 17, 2019 6:54pm Jun 17, 2019 6:54pm
Quoting riclater211
With that being said, I look at the charts as absolute truth. No matter what anyone says or does the proof is in price and market moves. Gold is flat. Has been for years.
My gut is going with Ric on this one.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #57
  • Jun 18, 2019 11:13am Jun 18, 2019 11:13am
Maduro is definitely a gold seller right now: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-7-4...ed-11560867792. In two quick flights he offloaded $300M

Interesting fact:
Quote
Gold is almost impossible to trace to its origin once refined. The United Nations says gold is the primary mineral financing militias and parts of the military in eastern Congo, funding a conflict that has killed millions.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #58
  • Jun 18, 2019 3:55pm Jun 18, 2019 3:55pm
Quoting bulltrap
Maduro is definitely a gold seller right now: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-7-4...ed-11560867792. In two quick flights he offloaded $300M Interesting fact: {quote}
Maduro is in trouble and he knows it. He does not want to end up like Hugo Chavez and his cancer pants. He needs an out when the "Teams" come knocking to remove him. A Go-Bag worth over $300 million is a good way to do that. I just don't know if I would pick Uganda as a place to store it.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #59
  • Jun 18, 2019 4:04pm Jun 18, 2019 4:04pm
Quoting bulltrap
Maduro is definitely a gold seller right now: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-7-4...ed-11560867792. In two quick flights he offloaded $300M Interesting fact: {quote}
Whoopsy daisy. Looks like he pulled the old switcheroo. lol

This debate about retail sentiment reminds me of a quote I like: “Investing is the only business I know that when things go on sale, people run out of the store." Apparently attributed to Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek. I'm generally on the contrarian side when it comes to retail traders but different strokes for different folks. If the opportunities were easy to spot, everyone would just get rich from trading.
  • #60
  • Edited 5:12pm Jun 18, 2019 4:51pm | Edited 5:12pm
Hey All,

Finished the 2019 World Silver Survey. After all that reading and analyzing I keep going back to one glaring fact. The Gold/Silver Ratio. For those in the know, the Gold/Silver ratio used to be rock solid. The charts looked the same despite the value of Gold dwarfing Silver. Now if you overlay, which I did below where gold is in Orange, the chart looks the same but where price is compared to Silver is way off.

Another concerning matter is Gold is drifting upwards. It may be slow and ugly but it is drifting up on the tech front. Higher lows being the predominant trait currently. At the same time Silver is drifting lower and further separating from Gold. Is negative correlation becoming the norm for Gold and Silver?

Another fun fact is Government sales have been reported as nil since 2013. Why don't they want it anymore. They sure want Gold. Another interesting fact is that the amount of silver used for hedging has dropped by 85%. Producers invest in the futures market in order to hedge profit when they believe Silver prices will come down. So now that they are not hedging as much do they believe that price bottomed out?

- Ric
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Silver Ratio 06182019.png Size: 127 KB
Be humble or get humbled
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