US Federal Funds Rate
It's an important driver of commodity demand - lower interest rates decrease carrying costs. Reduced costs to store goods will spur companies to make investments in raw materials, leading to higher inventory levels;
The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the FOMC Statement, which is focused on the future;
- US Federal Funds Rate Graph
- History
| Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.75% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 4.75% | 4.75% | 5.00% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 5.00% | 5.25% | 5.50% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| May 1, 2024 | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% |
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- US Federal Funds Rate News
From federalreserve.gov|Mar 21, 2025At the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I supported no change in the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings. Reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is an important part of normalizing monetary policy implementation and reducing unneeded reserves in the banking system. Slowing further or stopping redemptions of securities holdings will be appropriate as we get closer to an ample level of reserves. But in my view we are not there yet because reserve balances stand at over $3 trillion and this level is abundant. There is no evidence from money market indicators or my outreach conversations that the banking system is getting close to an ample level of reserves. The Committee slowed the pace of redemptions in June 2024 to help ensure a smooth transition to the appropriate level of securities holdings needed to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively. I believe that pace continues to be the right one. If unanticipated disturbances to reserve demand emer post: Fed's Waller: Even with the new slower pace of run off, a plan is still needed. post: Fed's Waller: Fed has tools available to mitigate unanticipated market disturbances and should rely on these and develop a plan to respond to any short-run strains. post: Fed's Waller: I believe the slowed run-off pace beginning in June 2024 continues to be the right one.
From youtube.com/yahoofinance|Mar 19, 2025Federal Reserve officials opted to hold interest rates steady at their March FOMC meeting on Wednesday, while still anticipating to cut rates twice in 2025. Former Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Former President and CEO Esther George joins Market Domination host Julie Hyman to talk more about how the US central bank is factoring economic growth uncertainties — especially those tied to tariffs and inflation — while reviewing the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) report.
From youtube.com/markets|Mar 19, 2025Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Fed, says the Federal Reserve is "flying blind" because they don't know what's going to happen to economic growth. "Powell came in and gave a pretty dovish performance in the sense of, ‘We got this, we’re in a good place, we can afford to wait, we’ll see how it goes, we’re gonna get the job done,’” he said.
From monexeurope.com|Mar 19, 2025The FOMC kept rates unchanged at the March policy meeting, in line with consensus expectations and our own pre-decision call. This leaves the target range for the Federal Funds Rate untouched at 4.25-4.50% for the second consecutive meeting. Somewhat to our surprise, however, other elements of this latest decision skewed dovish on net. The FOMC announced that quantitative tightening would be scaled back, beginning in April, while delivering an unchanged set of median rate projections. An upgrade to inflation expectations combined ...
From kitco.com|Mar 19, 2025The gold market remains off its highs and is struggling for direction as the Federal Reserve maintains its neutral monetary policy stance, even as it raises its inflation expectations and lowers its growth forecast. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged within a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The U.S. central bank provided little guidance on its monetary policy. According to updated interest rate projections, also known as the dot plots, the Federal Reserve sees interest rates ending the year at 3.9%, unchanged ...
From cnbc.com|Mar 19, 2025The Federal Reserve in a closely watched decision Wednesday held the line on benchmark interest rates though still indicated that reductions are likely later in the year. Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting. Along with the decision, officials ...
From youtube.com/federalreserve|Mar 19, 2025The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the ...
From federalreserve.gov|Mar 19, 2025|3 commentsIn conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18–19, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. post: *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 50 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2025 TO 3.9% post: Powell finally found the "stag" and the "flation": Fed cuts year-end GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% Fed raises year-end core PCE forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% Fed raises year-end unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4% pic.twitter.com/ftFkQL65RS post:
FOUR FED OFFICIALS EXPECT NO 2025 CUTS, VERSUS ONE IN DECEMBER
| Released on Mar 19, 2025 |
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