US FOMC Meeting Minutes

The latest FOMC meeting may have revealed more than the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. It also offered the clearest glimpse yet into how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to reshape the central bank. Markets initially focused on the decision to leave rates unchanged and the debate over inflation. However, the bigger story may lie in how the Fed now communicates policy. Shorter statements, less forward guidance and a more discretionary approach suggest Warsh is changing not just monetary policy, but the framework behind it. That ...

A Federal Reserve rate-setting committee agreed to keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting last month, though most officials were split over whether inflation is likely to stay elevated or whether it will cool once the Iran war winds down, according to minutes released Wednesday. In the first set of minutes released under new chair Kevin Warsh, “many” of the 19 participants in the rate-setting committee’s decisions said that the Fed’s key rate would be unchanged from or slightly below its current level of 3.6% by the end of this ...

Divided Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they will address persistent inflation this year with one interest rate hike. History, though, suggests that policymakers will have a hard time stopping there. In fact, there have been few instances over the past 35 years or so when the Fed has only made one rate move, be it up or down. Rather, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee tends to move in rate cycles, where it adjusts policy multiple times over a period to meet whatever goal it seeks to ...

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh wants to move away from forward guidance, and it might spark volatility in the market, says James Bullard, a former president of the St. Louis Fed, ahead of the minutes from the June meeting, due later today. The new head of the U.S. central bank has said he does not intend to make forecasts in the summary of economic projections and has argued that financial markets have become too reliant on these outlooks instead of forming their own conclusions based on economic data. Former Fed Chairs Jerome ...

Gold fell about 0.50% on Monday, with XAU/USD trading at $4,153, as firm US yields and a steady dollar limited a post-jobs data bounce even as markets pared expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The ISM Services PMI eased to 54 from 54.5; however, the Employment Index firmed and the prices paid gauge slowed to 67.7 from 71.3. Rate pricing shifted, with an 88% probability of a December hike and 22 basis points of tightening implied, while July is priced for no change with 77% odds, according to Prime Terminal data. The US ...

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed at $4,175.70 for the week ending July 3, up $87.31 or +2.14%. The weekly high reached $4,195.51. Gold sold off early in the week before Thursday’s June payrolls data reversed the action and produced the first weekly gain in about a month. Gold has been selling since the January highs with inflation fears and a hawkish Fed keeping the pressure on. The pullback lasted several weeks. Every time buyers tried to step in they got faded. Thursday’s jobs miss was the first real crack in the rate case, and the ...

The FOMC Minutes from the April meeting fired a warning shot across the bow for bond investors and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Inflation concerns had already moved to center stage for many participants as early as April, according to the Minutes. Participants “generally” judged that elevated inflation could require keeping the fed funds rate unchanged longer than they had previously anticipated. A “majority” of participants highlighted that “some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run ...