US FOMC Press Conference

The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting – an outcome that was never really in doubt. The more interesting signals came from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the policy statement, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, which may prove to be his most substantial. The statement was simplified and stripped of forward guidance, while the SEP showed a committee roughly split between holding rates steady for the remainder of the year and hiking at least once, a hawkish shift ...

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50- 3.75% and dropped its easing bias. However, this decision was announced in an unusually short statement. The decision was unanimous, with Miran – who repeatedly dissented because he wanted to cut – was replaced by Warsh. The press conference was a clear break from in the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era, with Warsh making an end to forward guidance. The statement was so short, that we replicate it here: The Federal Open Market Committee ...

While it will be difficult to separate intent from unintended consequences perhaps to be revisited in subsequent communications, Kevin Warsh’s grand entrance drove the bond market to rebel, pushed stocks lower and drove a stronger dollar. Gone is the steady hand on the tiller that avoids game day surprises. Either a deliberately new hawkish and more volatile era is upon us, or a hawkish bias for now is designed to establish initial credibility and buy time before five announced taskforces report back, or the Chair is learning on the ...

The Federal Reserve and Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday followed the script on interest rates closely, voting to keep the benchmark level steady, but dropped several surprises that kept markets guessing about where things are heading. Markets didn’t like it, with major averages swooning after the meeting and as Warsh spoke in his news conference. Here are the five biggest takeaways: No rate changes, but the hawks are circling: There were no apparent dissents to keep the federal funds rate targeted between 3.5%-3.75%. However, the ...

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote under new chair Kevin Warsh was unanimous in favor of a rate hold, as expected by the market consensus, while the latest economic projections showed nearly half of policymakers believe a rate hike will be warranted in 2026. “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate,” the Federal Reserve said in their statement. “The ...

The Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot," outlining policymakers' interest rate projections, revealed a sharp shift in central bankers' expectations. Not only are rate cuts almost surely off the table for the rest of the year, but there is also a sharply higher chance of a hike before the end of 2026. Nine policymakers who participated in the exercise projected at least one hike, with six even suggesting multiple hikes could be in the offing.