US FOMC Economic Projections
It's the primary tool the Fed uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors;
This report includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts. Source first released in Apr 2011;
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Description |
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Dec 18, 2024 | |
Sep 18, 2024 | |
Jun 12, 2024 | |
Mar 20, 2024 | |
Dec 13, 2023 | |
Sep 20, 2023 | |
Jun 14, 2023 | |
Mar 22, 2023 | |
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- US FOMC Economic Projections News
- From stayathomemacro.substack.com|Dec 30, 2024
On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to reduce the fund’s rate by 25 basis points, tightened their forward guidance on future cuts, and issued a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) with more inflation and fewer cuts expected. When the dust settled after Chair Powell’s press conference, the S&P 500 was down 3%, and 10-year Treasuries were up 10 basis points. These were usually large swings for a Fed Day, especially considering markets were already primed for a “hawkish cut.” Today’s post argues that a multi-level failure of ...
- From youtube.com/cmegroup|Dec 19, 2024
Copper futures make a new December low. Bob Iaccino discusses the industrial metal following Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC announcement.
- From scotiabank.com|Dec 18, 2024
The FOMC took a page from what its northern neighbour did last week and delivered a hawkish 25bps cut. Birds of a feather I say, as clearly central banks in this neck of the woods are getting a little more nervous about multiple uncertainties like the tone of data and the risks surrounding the incoming US administration. The effects drove higher market-driven borrowing costs, a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in stocks. CAD, for example, depreciated by over a penny to the USD and stands at 1.4447 on a USDCAD basis (69.2 cents US). ...
- From think.ing.com|Dec 18, 2024
We got another 25bp policy rate cut from the Fed, but updated projections and Chair Powell’s press conference confirms that the Fed is going to be much more cautious next year with sticky inflation and President Trump’s policy mix meaning a higher hurdle is required to justify rate cuts in 2025. 25bp from the Fed, but less in 2025 The Federal Reserve has cut rates 25bp, as expected. This brings us to 100bp of cumulative cuts since September, but the Fed is indicating a much slower, more gradual series of rate cuts in the future. 50bp ...
- From cnbc.com|Dec 18, 2024
U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate cut, but signaled fewer could be on the horizon. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed more than 11 basis points to 4.498%, hovering around the key 4.5% level in afternoon trading. The 2-year Treasury yield surged more than 10 basis points to 4.346%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The Fed announced another cut to interest rates on Wednesday with a decrease of a quarter ...
- From youtube.com/federalreserve|Dec 18, 2024
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the ...
- From nbcnews.com|Dec 18, 2024|3 comments
The Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point cut to its key interest rate Wednesday, an effort to keep stable what appears to be a steady but cooling economy. It's the central bank’s third rate cut of 2024. The move reduces the Fed's target rate to between 4.25% and 4.5%. In its statement announcing the cut, the Fed now projects just two interest rate cuts for 2025. It stated that the unemployment rate remains low, while the rate of inflation "remains somewhat elevated." The Fed's moves are designed to prevent the economy from ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Dec 18, 2024|1 comment
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 17–18, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. post: FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 50 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2025 TO 3.9% post: dots spike: 2025 - 3.875%, up 50bps from prior 3.375% 2026 - 3.375%, up 50bps from prior 2.875% 2027 - 3.125% up 25bps from prior 2.875% Longer-run - 3.000%, up 12.5bps from prior 2.875% post:
FED PROJECTIONS SHOW ONE OF 19 OFFICIALS SEE NO CUTS IN 2025, 3 SEE ONE CUT, 10 SEE 2 CUTS, 3 SEE 3 CUTS, ONE SEES 4 CUTS, ONE SEES 5 CUTS.
Released on Dec 18, 2024 |
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