US Beige Book

Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period. Employment levels were steady overall, though there were isolated reports that firms filled only necessary positions, reduced hours and shifts, or lowered overall employment levels through attrition. Still, reports of layoffs remained rare. On balance, wage growth was modest, while increases in nonlabor input costs and selling prices ranged from slight to moderate. Consumer spending ticked down in most Districts, having generally held steady during the prior reporting period. Auto sales continued to vary by District, with some noting increases in sales and others reporting slowing sales because of elevated interest rates and high vehicle prices. Manufacturing activity declined in most Districts, and two Districts noted that these declines were part of ongoing contractions in the sector. Residential construction and real estate activity were mixed, though most Districts’ reports indicated softer home sales. Likewise, reports on commercial construction and real estate activity were mixed. District contacts generally expected economic activity to remain stable or to improve somewhat in the coming months, though contacts in three Districts anticipated slight declines post: *FED SAYS EMPLOYMENT GENERALLY FLAT, SLIGHTLY UP IN RECENT WEEKS post: FED BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GREW SLIGHTLY IN THREE DISTRICTS, WHILE THE NUMBER OF DISTRICTS THAT REPORTED FLAT OR DECLINING ACTIVITY ROSE FROM FIVE IN THE PRIOR PERIOD TO NINE IN THE CURRENT PERIOD. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: ON BALANCE, PRICES INCREASED MODESTLY IN THE MOST RECENT REPORTING PERIOD. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: DISTRICT CONTACTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TO REMAIN STABLE OR TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE COMING MONTHS, THOUGH CONTACTS IN THREE DISTRICTS ANTICIPATED SLIGHT DECLINES.

Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase in activity, five noted flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period. Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly. Household spending was little changed this period according to most District banks. Auto sales varied across Districts this cycle, but some Districts noted that sales were lower due in part to a cyberattack on dealerships and high interest rates. Most Districts saw soft demand for consumer and business loans. Reports on residential and commercial real estate markets varied, but most banks reported only slight changes, if any, in recent weeks. Travel and tourism grew steadily and was on par with seasonal expectations. Agricultural conditions varied in tandem with sporadic droughts across the nation. Districts also reported widely disparate trends in manufacturing activity ranging from brisk downturn to moderate growth. Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Meanwhile, tight capacity in ocean shipping led to a surge in spot rates. Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict, and inflation. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT TO MODEST PACE OF GROWTH IN A MAJORITY OF DISTRICTS THIS REPORTING CYCLE. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY WERE FOR SLOWER GROWTH OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE UPCOMING ELECTION, DOMESTIC POLICY, GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT, AND INFLATION. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: PRICES INCREASED AT A MODEST PACE OVERALL, WITH A COUPLE DISTRICTS NOTING ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES.