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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #28,121
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:32am Nov 14, 2013 11:32am
Quoting okanemici
If it wants to break 1295 it will probably make a pullback to 1279-1282 to fake everybody. {image}
I can definitely see - perhaps not today - but a pullback to potential 1280/5 area.

If you look at this simple 3 day line chart - we can see the today's high as well as the prior low and then the area of "price congestion" if you will,
which is right around 1280-85.

Sometimes it is interesting to use multiple days of line chart price action to see where potential support/resistance and congestion or sideways movement is located.

Here we can look for pullback failures for shorts, resistance breakouts for longs, as well as where the price may just fizzle out for the weekly close or
remain is slower markets..

Here is a shot from about a minute ago.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,122
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:38am Nov 14, 2013 11:38am
For instance you can see the price was (earlier in the week) testing around 1280 with a tap on 85 and 75 on the lower side, on the third test 75 failed and the price plummeted to almost 1260.

Later we regained the same 1275 / 85 range and after a couple of tests around 86/87 or simply rounding as I like to do 1285 she broke and immediately added 10 bucks making today's high right around 1295.

I also consider the truer resistance/support around psychological levels of say 1300 to lie usually 5 and 15 USD below the round. For instance. 1295 resistance,
when and if that goes, 1300 should easily break with a possible stall around 1305
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,123
  • Edited 12:10pm Nov 14, 2013 11:55am | Edited 12:10pm
To me this is actually far more interesting and a clear example of price suppression.

ON a day where GOLD has moved up 10 bucks silver should be following a bit more closely with somewhere of an approximation of .25 cents booked.

Look at the "congestion" area of 20.80 / 20.60.

We can see the dip where gold fell as well on Weds. of this week, yet, today as gold managed to eek out a high and break some minor resistance,

silver remains, EXACTLY where it was last night around 2080 and has yet to break north.

The two don't always move in tandem, yet, more often than not, one will push the other along for the ride. Here that is clearly not the case.

It only looks good in PCTG. movement because the price is basically 2.20 USD per ozt lower than where it was before the recent dips.
As the price gets higher obviously the %age shrinks, thus a .17 cent move on 25.00 USD silver is SURELY not an .85% move!
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,124
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:59am Nov 14, 2013 11:59am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} I can definitely see - perhaps not today - but a pullback to potential 1280/5 area. If you look at this simple 3 day line chart - we can see the today's high as well as the prior low and then the area of "price congestion" if you will, which is right around 1280-85. Sometimes it is interesting to use multiple days of line chart price action to see where potential support/resistance and congestion or sideways movement is located. Here we can look for pullback failures for shorts, resistance breakouts for longs, as well as where the price...

i agree, this 3-day chart is really useful and is now permanently open in a browser tab.

as you say, it shows where PA returns to when it wants to sulk or be difficult and also the times of day when it likes to move or consolidate. Really useful.

After hitting in the vicinity of 1300 I also anticipate a return to 1280.... lower down, i can't imagine what it's going to take to break through 1276 considering the resistance fight that happened around there yesterday!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,125
  • Nov 14, 2013 12:18pm Nov 14, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} I can definitely see - perhaps not today - but a pullback to potential 1280/5 area. If you look at this simple 3 day line chart - we can see the today's high as well as the prior low and then the area of "price congestion" if you will, which is right around 1280-85. Sometimes it is interesting to use multiple days of line chart price action to see where potential support/resistance and congestion or sideways movement is located. Here we can look for pullback failures for shorts, resistance breakouts for longs, as well as where the price...
Nice chart . Does it always work the way you use it ? I agree it needs an other day, something else has to happen to make sure, one of them is this pullback I'm talking about, I'll watch like a hawk and post when I see it.
  • #28,126
  • Nov 14, 2013 12:25pm Nov 14, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting XTrade
For instance you can see the price was (earlier in the week) testing around 1280 with a tap on 85 and 75 on the lower side, on the third test 75 failed and the price plummeted to almost 1260. Later we regained the same 1275 / 85 range and after a couple of tests around 86/87 or simply rounding as I like to do 1285 she broke and immediately added 10 bucks making today's high right around 1295. I also consider the truer resistance/support around psychological levels of say 1300 to lie usually 5 and 15 USD below the round. For instance. 1295 resistance,...

This time 1295 is important because it is where the 4H trend gets broken.Other times you might be right.They buy below the round numbers and etc.
Break of 1295 will bring a quick 1310 then maybe 1295 test and then 1322.
Otherwise this is not a sure long yet, the trend is still down, if 127x dont hold we might see lower.Friday should show us the way.
  • #28,127
  • Nov 14, 2013 12:47pm Nov 14, 2013 12:47pm
starting to feel very insecure holding a long in this PA... each retracement is getting stronger and deeper in relation to the preceding wave!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,128
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:13pm Nov 14, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting venzen
starting to feel very insecure holding a long in this PA... each retracement is getting stronger and deeper in relation to the preceding wave!
I will feel insecure if it closes under the AMA (1283 tf 1 hour)…

Good entry point for buy limit for those who believe in the "north" scenario...
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #28,129
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:15pm Nov 14, 2013 1:15pm
I think gold will move sideways even if it doesn't tank from here, its been such a massive loser this year, that makes it a prime candidate for tax loss selling.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #28,130
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:37pm Nov 14, 2013 1:37pm
Honestly - I would say more often than not.

YET, following news or at very least reading headlines and the calendar here at FunFactory greatly increases the chances of success.

For instance, we got a "baseline" or what I have been calling the congestion price range, then the news dropped and basically all the numbers were poor.

Price bounced north after the data as expected...

So you don't need to necessarily even be a "fundamental analyst" yet simple knowledge of what the releases for the day are as well as forecasts can help your trading In my opinion...

Always good to look at it from the "anything can happen" POV - cause as we know the market does not always react as expected.

Quoting okanemici
{quote} Nice chart . Does it always work the way you use it ? I agree it needs an other day, something else has to happen to make sure, one of them is this pullback I'm talking about, I'll watch like a hawk and post when I see it.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,131
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:42pm Nov 14, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting venzen
starting to feel very insecure holding a long in this PA... each retracement is getting stronger and deeper in relation to the preceding wave!
If you snagged anything in the 1270 range I wouldn't worry too much. Tomorrow is light on news so if there is some regained fuel, we could see 1300+ sooner rather than later.

Yet, I agree. The lows and support failures as of late have been more aggressive than breakouts and highs.

1350 to 75 needs to get flipped to sustain any upmove rather than the sideways doldrums.

However, we are going into the holiday season and a new year!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,132
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:44pm Nov 14, 2013 1:44pm
And there's 1285 likely going to fizzle out the day around here...

If Aussie/Asia can push the price up or at least keep it above water buying may stay light until Friday's close.

Beware of profit taking though.

Quoting XTrade
{quote} I can definitely see - perhaps not today - but a pullback to potential 1280/5 area. If you look at this simple 3 day line chart - we can see the today's high as well as the prior low and then the area of "price congestion" if you will, which is right around 1280-85. Sometimes it is interesting to use multiple days of line chart price action to see where potential support/resistance and congestion or sideways movement is located. Here we can look for pullback failures for shorts, resistance breakouts for longs, as well as where the price...
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,133
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:49pm Nov 14, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting XTrade
Honestly - I would say more often than not. YET, following news or at very least reading headlines and the calendar here at FunFactory greatly increases the chances of success. For instance, we got a "baseline" or what I have been calling the congestion price range, then the news dropped and basically all the numbers were poor. Price bounced north after the data as expected... So you don't need to necessarily even be a "fundamental analyst" yet simple knowledge of what the releases for the day are as well as forecasts can help your trading In my...
Well i am not sure if this price bounced happened because of the data realized… there was a considerable lag (1-2 hours ) between the released news and the price movement…
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #28,134
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:15pm Nov 14, 2013 2:15pm
Yes, oddly enough I was just looking at the same thing there was some lag, likely due to the Yellen speech,
however, although the high was not created until about 11:AM EST

The price did start gaining upon the US open @ 8:AM EST and the news dropped @ 8:30. with Yellen @ 10

It does appear as though there was lag, yet the releases IMO helped propel us to test 1295

now with a ten USD south test of 1285 it looks like it may turn up or ride the line.

see below.

The data dropped but the price did not indeed breakout until
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} Well i am not sure if this price bounced happened because of the data realized… there was a considerable lag (1-2 hours ) between the released news and the price movement…
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,135
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:17pm Nov 14, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting XTrade
Yes, oddly enough I was just looking at the same thing there was some lag, likely due to the Yellen speech, however, although the high was not created until about 11:AM EST The price did start gaining upon the US open @ 8:AM EST and the news dropped @ 8:30. with Yellen @ 10 It does appear as though there was lag, yet the releases IMO helped propel us to test 1295 now with a ten USD south test of 1285 it looks like it may turn up or ride the line. see below. The data dropped but the price did not indeed breakout until {quote} {image}
How do I get the same chart in metatrader ?
  • #28,136
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:18pm Nov 14, 2013 2:18pm
I cut the image to show what I call the power hours, NY / LDN cross session from 8 AM EST to 12pm.

If you notice the chart actually is slightly grey during this period which is precisely when we see the most action in Price.

here is the full chart, depending on ones screen to see the "greyish" area you might need to tilt your head
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,137
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:19pm Nov 14, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} How do I get the same chart in metatrader ?
I don't know how you can overlap three days of data in metatrader. There may be a way.. Try asking in the coding forum.

That's why I look at this chart.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,138
  • Nov 14, 2013 3:13pm Nov 14, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting okanemici
If it wants to break 1295 it will probably make a pullback to 1279-1282 to fake everybody. {image}
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Nice chart . Does it always work the way you use it ? I agree it needs an other day, something else has to happen to make sure, one of them is this pullback I'm talking about, I'll watch like a hawk and post when I see it.
Yesss, the new day comes and the signal comes.I'm more confident now that this 1279-82 buy limit would work.If not, a buy stop 1293 should stay there for a sudden and unexpected jump !
  • #28,139
  • Nov 14, 2013 4:25pm Nov 14, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} {quote} Yesss, the new day comes and the signal comes.I'm more confident now that this 1279-82 buy limit would work.If not, a buy stop 1293 should stay there for a sudden and unexpected jump !
I like 1282 or 1285, yet if the chart returns to OR DOESN'T return to 1285, 1287 may be in your best interest here. IMO...

Look at how the chart and analysis even just if we use simple support and resistance has already worked for us today after my prior explanations.

The high was made, which if scalping or a "lot stacker" day trader, would have signaled a short to the "congestion/baseline pulse" area which we had
already decided was 1285 to 1280 on a minor day's pullback and fizzle out..

Next, depending on how you manage your money and your goals, we tested 1285 which mind you is on the TOPSIDE of the larger congestion / range of 1275 support now and 1285 a NICE typical 10 USD daily fluctuating range,

THUS, Signaling a Long @ 1285 or above, already now we have another successful scalp for a 2.50 USD move north as of yet and the possibility to move higher AS WELL as retest the signal area of 1285/1280.

Below, 1280 I would be slightly careful for longs. IF Not long already off the nice discount price of 1265.

Looking at a 3 day trader, you already knew 1265 was a level and while silver made a new ONE MONTH LOW, that was equally a signal.
So, had you even set buy, for 1267.50 you would have INDEED been filled and accomplished a 30 USD move on the front of only 3 days, 10 bucks or 1000 pips booked daily. For the math see post one.

I tend to trade for the longer term yet have grown a bit frustrated as of late with the somewhat EXtreme disconnect between paper gold derivatives and the physical spot price. My current long is from 1267 YET ONLY BECAUSE MY INITIAL buy limit was "too cheap for the market" @ 1253 so I had to in turn GO to market already over TEN bucks high.

! Being cheap doesn't pay,
! not having the balls to lose or risk any money gets you nowhere fast.
! BE AGGRESSIVE - if you HAVE your trades planned properly before ever considering placing an order or going "market" unless you are a minute or tick trader.
! Be SAFE if you have a nice trade setup that suggest both SUPPORT FAILURES and RESISTANCE BREAKOUTS! Place orders and stops accordingly and you are SURE to get filled sooner or later. Here is where I like to look at fractals.



----------- I used to post more trade setups here and WILL gladly again if people want them, yet, my style of trading is a blend of simple or "old school"
methods for techs:
S/R, Trend Lines, Moving Averages ALWAYS SMA on higher TFs, Chart Patterns, sometimes fractals, and I use indicators in order RSI, STOCH, MACD, bollinger bands,
only to reinforce my trade decisions. I like VSA but usually concentrate on volume during chart pattern analysis as we know the major volume always occurs during the cross session from LDN/NY. POWER HOURS! ------------

I read and factor in fundamental analysis always.

I read the calendar daily. EVEN if just to be abreast of what MIGHT or might not affect my trading.

When longer term the key for me is the weekly, then as I mentioned It goes,
Weekly to trade >Daily - Daily to trade > H4 - H4 to trade > H1. And I will scalp off H1 just to cut out the NOISE!!!!
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,140
  • Nov 14, 2013 4:33pm Nov 14, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} I like 1282 or 1285, yet if the chart returns to OR DOESN'T return to 1285, 1287 may be in your best interest here. IMO... Look at how the chart and analysis even just if we use simple support and resistance has already worked for us today after my prior explanations. The high was made, which if scalping or a "lot stacker" day trader, would have signaled a short to the "congestion/baseline pulse" area which we had already decided was 1285 to 1280 on a minor day's pullback and fizzle out.. Next, depending on how you manage your money and...

I like daily to trade the 4h hour and I wish I started doing it when I first started trading 2 years ago.This will possibly go to at least 1282 before london opens and they mark it up with london, or they take it down with london and ny marks it up.I expect a similar pa as 17.10.2013 !
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