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  • #22,961
  • Feb 28, 2013 12:10pm Feb 28, 2013 12:10pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting TheArcher
has ForexFactory discontinued the member's posts search feature ?

how can i search for my earlier posts ?
Click on your (or anyone's) user name and you'll be brought to their home page where you'll see their total number of posts. Click on that number and you'll get a summary list of all their posts. Click on their user name next to a summary to be brought directly to the post.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,962
  • Mar 1, 2013 12:38am Mar 1, 2013 12:38am
Am I seeing fakey setups?
  • #22,963
  • Mar 1, 2013 3:19am Mar 1, 2013 3:19am
yes..the Asian session set up the fakey. The European session is confirming it now.

This is like the third time or more that I am seeing a fakey setup this week. in the 4H and 1H charts.

D1 chart looks like one now.

Looking forward to NFP to see if it continues the down in accordance to the fakey setup or stop it.
  • #22,964
  • Mar 1, 2013 3:35am Mar 1, 2013 3:35am
Just trying to illustrate what I am meaning about 3 hours ago about the fakey I saw.

Not entering the short side either, because waiting for NFP

Trade safely!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag usd.jpg Size: 510 KB
  • #22,965
  • Mar 1, 2013 3:55am Mar 1, 2013 3:55am
Quoting Pluvius
Not entering the short side either, because waiting for NFP
NFP is next Friday.

GSR..May be briefly, but right now the uptrending fork has been confirmed, and the wedge broken to the UPSIDE. This is today's chart.
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7...forkchosen.png

This is chart after yesterday close.
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/...ear_silver.png
  • #22,966
  • Mar 1, 2013 4:28am Mar 1, 2013 4:28am
Quoting ivars
NFP is next Friday.

GSR..May be briefly, but right now the uptrending fork has been confirmed, and the wedge broken to the UPSIDE. This is today's chart.
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7...forkchosen.png

This is chart after yesterday close.
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/...ear_silver.png
Awww man, I really thought it was every first Friday of the month like 1st Feb and today was it.

Which just makes me realize I should have traded yesterday and earlier today with the short trade

Oh well, time to think of another plan...
  • #22,967
  • Edited 4:42am Mar 1, 2013 4:39am | Edited 4:42am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Pluvius
yes..the Asian session set up the fakey. The European session is confirming it now.

This is like the third time or more that I am seeing a fakey setup this week. in the 4H and 1H charts.

D1 chart looks like one now.

Looking forward to NFP to see if it continues the down in accordance to the fakey setup or stop it.
What is a "fakey"? On that chart the circled areas look like normal price action to me so I'm not sure what you mean. Also, why do you think economic data will have a meaningful effect on gold?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,968
  • Mar 1, 2013 4:44am Mar 1, 2013 4:44am
How does the GSR help us to trade Gold and Silver. Could you please brief on tht.

Quoting ivars
NFP is next Friday.

GSR..May be briefly, but right now the uptrending fork has been confirmed, and the wedge broken to the UPSIDE. This is today's chart.
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7...forkchosen.png

This is chart after yesterday close.
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/...ear_silver.png
  • #22,969
  • Mar 1, 2013 4:56am Mar 1, 2013 4:56am
Quoting KADC
What is a "fakey"? On that chart the circled areas look like normal price action to me so I'm not sure what you mean. Also, why do you think economic data will have a meaningful effect on gold?
Just using the same term "Fakey setup" as this guy and some other guys. The set up is also more clearly seen in XAU/USD
More info here
Inserted Video
!

Perhaps you guys, just call it price action (PA) over here, and they are really specific on this and named it fakey setup.

I believe that such releases of data, ECB press conference have sudden spikes in prices. And I believe there are good opportunities in such spikes in prices when it is released.

The recent NFP(s) in Jan and Feb 2013 presented such opportunities in my opinion as per seen on the forex charts. The recent FOMC minutes too.
  • #22,970
  • Mar 1, 2013 5:03am Mar 1, 2013 5:03am
Hi KADC

I'm interested to know your current perspective on GOLD, I don't normally write on this forum but I am here most days reading it..
I have some long positions and have basically been shorting small positions as we have worked our way down to hedge this drop, but how far will it drop before we get back on the bull train is the ultimate question, for me 1540-50 area is strong support (on my screens anyway lol)?

I find your posts informative and helpful with my trading plan, more of a confirmation to what i'm thinking generally

Cheers
Rex
  • #22,971
  • Mar 1, 2013 5:07am Mar 1, 2013 5:07am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
I've been asked why I wasn't posting much lately -- until gold positioned itself to resume the correction Tuesday the "real money" was in EUR/JPY and to be honest I thought sideways action would continue quite a bit longer.

When gold rose 50% of the last move down to precisely where the last push down "paused", and hourly and 4-hour RSI rose to the highest they've been in a month (daily RSI was just shy of resistance) it was a pretty obvious entry point for a short, but I was so fixated on EUR/JPY that gold's move passed by me completely unnoticed.

If anyone got caught by surprise thinking that the correction had ended, the reaction, or more specifically the lack thereof, after gold hit $1,555 suggested there would be, at the very least, a retest of $1,555 and possible continuation to $1,526 but extremely low RSI required a climb before that could happen -- and now it has.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,972
  • Mar 1, 2013 5:21am Mar 1, 2013 5:21am
Yes I caught that nice setup at the 50% retrace, wish I had let it ride a bit more, but some profit better than none or a loss

Thanks for the update, basically what I had expected.
  • #22,973
  • Mar 1, 2013 5:37am Mar 1, 2013 5:37am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
This is a very long article which does e very good job of explaining what an analyst on BNN called the "greatest Ponzi scheme of all time".

http://fofoa.blogspot.ca/2013/02/checkmate.html

Around the middle of the article it gets to the reason why central banks are stuck doing this careful price-manipulation dance where they can't let gold get too low lest they owe more weight of gold than they can deliver (or pretend to have) while on the other hand not being able to afford the consequences if gold gets too high.

Once price hits bottom, I think we may be in for another lengthy period of sideways trading (some analysts say until the end of 2013) before gold is allowed to soar again. I wouldn't count on more than an immediate $100 rise from the bottom then bouncing around in a $40 range for three months as it did last year, though obviously only time will tell. If that does prove to be the case it's not helpful for those of us holding gold as an investment vehicle, but it's excellent for day trading and scalping.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,974
  • Mar 1, 2013 6:11am Mar 1, 2013 6:11am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting rexxen
Yes I caught that nice setup at the 50% retrace, wish I had let it ride a bit more, but some profit better than none or a loss

Thanks for the update, basically what I had expected.
Always being satisfied with any profitable trade, or not losing money, is exactly the right attitude for successful trading.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,975
  • Mar 1, 2013 6:28am Mar 1, 2013 6:28am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Paras4you
How does the GSR help us to trade Gold and Silver. Could you please brief on tht.
It's a tool to make money swapping your silver investments for gold and vice versa. Because GSR extremes can correct by either the higher ratio metal losing or the lower ratio metal gaining it has limited predictive value for trading gold or silver individually.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,976
  • Mar 1, 2013 6:33am Mar 1, 2013 6:33am
Quoting KADC
It's a tool to make money swapping your silver investments for gold and vice versa. Because GSR extremes can correct by either the higher ratio metal losing or the lower ratio metal gaining it has limited predictive value for trading gold or silver individually.
So basically it a tool which is seen as taking out cash from silver and invessting is in gold, whn GSR is going up and vise versa.
  • #22,977
  • Mar 1, 2013 7:35am Mar 1, 2013 7:35am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Paras4you
So basically it a tool which is seen as taking out cash from silver and invessting is in gold, whn GSR is going up and vise versa.
The problem with GSR is it's hard to predict where it will turn. If you swapped your gold for silver at 50.5 do you swap back now at 55.5 for a 10% gain or hold out? Here's a long term chart taken from GoldPrice.org http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html

Attached Image
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,978
  • Mar 1, 2013 7:22pm Mar 1, 2013 7:22pm
Time to go long ladies. In from $28.45.



Weekly is all over it.

Much stronger than last weekly swing. Hidden divergence is coming more than likely.

Also, we are still holding the trend line from $8.50/oz, a 5 year trend line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silverdailyweeklymarch1st.jpg Size: 178 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #22,979
  • Mar 3, 2013 11:13pm Mar 3, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting lilpip
Anticipated monthly and quarterly low breakout 1616-21 retest reached .
Question Is , how does she respond as month comes to a end ?
Her strong move up tue makes her a bit more difficult to read her if shes going south.
Like to see a monthly/weekly close above 1616-21 if shes going north.
o
Feb monthly low breakout holds on retest, bias continues to be down from march pivot of 1619 area.
Mar monthly
1703
1619
1532-33
Weekly
1663
1601
1541-43
Mon
1616-19
1588
1560
  • #22,980
  • Mar 4, 2013 1:55am Mar 4, 2013 1:55am
This new fork in silver keeps me from going long. I would like to see it violated till this evening before even thinking of going long with a short term target:

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/6...erdownfork.png

GSR still in the uptrending fork. It has the characteristic look though of topping out (see previous top) , but now resolution moved to March 6-8, so may be the topping will not be so radical today- tomorrow.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/1...srupmoving.png
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