XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

well, not a single post thus far today. whats happening, awfully quite around here.

XAG and XAU a bit quiet or flat past few days, thus thread also went quiet or flat...maybe?

Thursday ECB meeting and press conference after it. Druggy will talk and it will indirectly affect gold/silver.

CET 9 am start
CET 1 45 pm monetary policy decision
CET 2 30 pm Press conference.

Friday, NFP.

On the sidelines, I have noticed JPY already weakened on some of the pairs.

http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-d...treaming-chart

http://www.investing.com/commodities...advanced-chart

USD index up ...gold up ...is it weird ???

No it is not wierd.

it simply means Gold is getting enough strong . now at this point if dollar take a dive, guess where gold is going to be. ????

I would hold a sell position for this one. I'm looking around the 1540's area to buy long until retrace is complete. I would say around 1625 is a 50% retrace of the last major high of 1697. Normally it does a 50% to 60% retrace when it starts breaking into the 70% to 80% range its a slow but quick sign of trend change. So basically I'm looking for a second drop to what I mentioned above and then a major trace to complete. I will reevaluate my position after that point. I could be wrong but from my knowledge I see a uncompleted formation at the moment that needs to finish out before any major changes will happen. I will try to supply my charts to explain shortly.

Things are becoming quite manipulated and lately have doing the opposite over what is the norm. You think one thing and a other happens. That's not what I'm going off of, but for a trader that is just reading the news it very much applies. In the last few weeks things have been back on track of following the market in real time. Meaning back to stocks raising as gold fall instead of the standard for the last year, where stocks and gold moved 'up' together.

At the moment it truly looks like a slow breakout from a forming wedge pattern to the upside. But at the moment I can't find any data that supports this, even though I can see the upside targets. Everyone is poring into the Bullish mind set at the moment, and to me this is where the big players make major money and will use the news tomorrow that's scheduled to push everyone out once again.

Every time frame up to 4 hours is over bought, it's not until you get into the higher time frames where you see it as extremely over sold. The only way this can correctly get into a bullish position is buy: reliving itself from all the pressure building up by completing it's downtrend. This will allow the lower timeframes to be back into the over sold position along with the higher timeframes; this untimely will help with the sudden burst up buy all times frames being in a over sold position, which will supply aid to the correction.

The sudden shoot to 1620 relived the major players by them releasing and closing out their profits, but only to Sell back in at a price way over 1600. When the sudden dip to 1564 shortly after happened, this was with aid to the heavy hitters pushing it back down, and putting the formation into limbo. Their staying put on their positions (sell,) while everyone else is deciding, but mostly entering bullish. the market is only in limbo because the little/mid players are canceling out the major players.

The major players can release their sell at smaller profits with a swift buy reentry and then aid the support into the bullish rally; why would they do that when they can stop everyone out from their buy positions, freeing up all the pressure holding it in the middle and ride it down to their intended targets with a buy reentry at a way cheaper price. Buy the time everyone catches on, it will be switching formation to bullish mindset giving them the momentum to ride it back up. At the moment this might happen more than once, that is until some real data comes out to support a real trend changer. Major players just stack up money when the market is at a limbo state, since its returned to lows of the past. For any major breakouts to happen something that we will all hear about must happen, and quickly it will.

I hope this helps somebody out, even if it's only one person.

(Update) Last note: I forgot how the job report was coming out on Friday...That partially explains Gold's behavior by it's formation staying within range.

If you search a little further back in the thread, you'll see a few posts demonstrating that there is no reliable historical correlation between currencies and gold.

Though not specifically currency correlations, I believe I posted the most recent one here which included this spreadsheet showing the correlation between gold and USD varies between 55% and -67%. (I just noticed the conditional formatting didn't colour the negative correlations properly.)

I just did this lousy sketch from my broker platform. Haha, inspired by those free webinars I attended, to draw a few amateur lines.

Anyone agree with these lines?

silver

time daily : pattern : wolfi wave - crab - rd+

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/...2645252511.gif

Medium-term gold will drop in 1517/1455???

http://vangsaigon.com/iupload/images/dyjy.gif

GSR seems to have escaped the uptrending fork, trying to reverse down - PMs up- going back into previous downtrending fork.




http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/215...apinguptre.png

But its still pretty close call to say it has turned. NFP will confirm/deny it.

gold is in range for the time being.

good time now to scalp between 1586 and 1566. a break of these should resume any underlying trends.

Gold this morning in the range 1576 - 1581. It wait for message boards: Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

looks resonable .....

GSR turnaround down looks normal. Notice how volatile were daily figures previous time it changed direction from up to down before sliding into clear trend . Similar thing is happening now:




http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/8...alturnarou.png


There are certain similarities also in silver daily chart:


http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/5...itiessilve.png

May be too obvious to continue.

In the Short Side of Long article, the author believes either there is catastrophic further downside in the gold miners, and by association, gold, or sentiment is nearly at that "Oh my god, sell everything!" point which is exactly when you want to buy.

http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.c...rash-mode.html

Statically, 67% of all trades lose, so if you are a sentiment trader, according to Oanda Forex Open Position Ratios Chart which is showing almost 88% long gold and 83% long silver, you should be short.

Open Position Ratios provided by OANDA
">Open Position Ratios provided by OANDA

yeah, I agree, that the majority of trades lose. Perhaps even more than 67% ...

But the website..says..the other way round, 83% XAU/USD, 88% XAG/USD hehe.

Hope everyone is ready for NFP ! Volatility!

Hi, my first post in this thread.

You also have to consider the possibility that there may be many mines where the gold is not so easy to get out of the ground, ie operating costs may mean that the mine is not economically viable with gold prices below a certain level.
In a sustained bearish gold market, you will see these mines go "offline" Just as in a sustained bull market they have become "online."
What I am saying is that when the price of gold is high and going higher, more previously uneconomical mines will be opened up.
Eventually it gets to a stage where more gold is being mined than the market wants to buy and that is when prices begin to drop.
With the price of gold going down, some mines are lucky to break even or even make a loss. There are costs involved when closing a non profitable mine, so these borderline mines will not close immediately, but will start to make cuts.
If gold continues to go lower, these mines where it is more costly to get the gold out will have no choice but to close.
Gold price is driven by supply and demand.
As prices go up more mines come online and supply eventually exceeds demand, price drops and more mines go offline until demand exceeds supply. Then gold price rises again.
With demand exceeding supply, the mines that have been closed will not immediately re-open, there are costs involved and the companies will want to be sure that the price will go well beyond their break-even level before re-opening the mines.

i got charged 1000 pips in the spread? what the hell..

And Point being!!!!!!! Just watch out for the up side after nasty fall. Numbers don't get better than that!