XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I ain't sure how far this consideration can be correct. If H& S, then price would drop further. May be a fall after re-testing the falling neck level where 50% of the FIB also lies. So watch 1650 to 1660 area with caution.

FXT

In my opinion
current account positive = more demand for the currency in the sense of export/import
so negative = less demand for currency and it should lower the price based on economic theory

however, in this kind of economic condition (in the europe especially), the USD is thought as a safe haven. So there will also be increase in demand for USD not for export/import purpose but as a mean of money storage.


As we all know, the market is sometimes if not always driven by fear/psychological effect. Thus "everyone" should neglect the current account report as their attention is put somewhere else which they think more important

Rather than current account we should put our attention to today job report as the US is more concerned about jobs rather than anything else (a fact)
Should the job report is worse than expected, "everyone" will expect Bernanke to come out with the idea of another QE, and that would certainly drive gold price

CMIIW
my 2c

Thanks, pal for the enlightenment.

breeze

Hello friends,

Below is my view on GOLD.


MONTHLY CHART:


A correction in happening. It is what I see at a first look into monthly chart. 1757.90 (13.14% of FIB) has been a significant resistance preventing to raise further for 4 months by reacting to which, the price seems to be heading to next fib level of 23.6% @ 1628.28. Break of 23.6 and trend line should bring this down to 1563 area. Note that Bollinger band mid-point falls @ 1530 area and a break below which might drive this down to FIB 50% (1300). I don’t think that would happen. But hey… who knows it. Do take a look at MACD which has come below the signal line since mid of 2009. Be cautious about that too.




WEEKLY CHART:


Considering the weekly swing of 2011 low and high, the price is now below 38.2% and and 50% is well in sight @ 1614.40. Also I see a trend line support at that price. Comparing the two highs formed ( Nov 2011 and Feb 2012) with MACD, though price formed equal high. MACD failed to raise to that level equally which signals the weakness of bulls. Upcoming low and high should be a deciding factor of further move according to me. I mean, if MACD manages to form new highs along with price, bulls might be back on track. But a breah of FIB 50% will take gold to 1542.12 or even a little lower price before it reverse (1530 is monthly Bollinger mid). May be a spike in price should complete that move.


Do take a look at other weekly chart too, in which I have included Bollinger and RSI. Currently, the price is well beyond Bollinger mid-point (even though previous candle showed a bullish bias). If the current weekly candle manages to close below Bollinger mid, RSI will also complete it move beyond 50 level turning gold to a stronger bearish bias. Alternatively, if price somehow closes above midpoint of Bollinger (highly impossible), I think we can forget about selling further. Note FIB level also. A breach of 38.2% at 1674.70 sees the next level at 1616.57.


DAILY CHART:


Considering the swing of Dec 2011 low to Feb 2012 high, price has already crossed 50% @ 1656.55. I guess, that level will be re-tested again before a further drop (if at all any). So, 1656 level may be a good shorting opportunity with 1st target being 1624. RSI is already showing bearishness.



I also see a falling H&S formation (which I ain’t sure how far it can be considered correct) with falling neck line. Neck line is broken with yesterday’s candle and now the price seems to be re-testing it. Fortunately or unfortunately, neck level also falls around 1656 level which further tempts me to go for short term selling. Do note the bearish divergence formed in MACD of daily chart which I have shown using trend line (that also tempts me to go short you know).




4H CHART:
Now, coming to 4H, as far as the price stays below 200 SMA (red colour), I’m not preferring to go long (obviously I will buy if there is any strong reversal formation occurs). I’ve used combination of 200 SMA and 55 SMMA (high and low) which has given good entries in PBs and I hope it continues to work so. RSI has entered oversold area is to be noted. Considering last week high and low, price has crossed 127.2% FIB level @ 1648.56 which is now acting as a resistance.


So finally, according to me any reversal before the range 1624 to 1630 may be temporary or to be precise, a PB in short or medium term. Need to wait further to confirm long term trend. Always watch PA carefully for any confirmation.


Charts attached.



I've only expressed my opinion and this is not meant to be correct always. Any contrast in views is accepted. And please never consider this as a signal. Always TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.


Just see whether it is helpful in anyway.


Thank you& Happy Trading!!! Sorry if you think I've wasted your time by reading this long.



FXT

Hi everyone, I've gone long from 1,647,71 First target 1,662.00 If price breaks trend line, I will hold. SL 1,634.00 (just below current low) Chart H4

I am looking now at the support WS2 whether it will hold or not. After this level has been confirmed or broken I will trade it.

Planning to add to my short at 1639. Triangle looks promissing.

thanks for ur explanation.

what is ur take with the current level ... is ur analysis still valid ?

tks

well, iam out of my long for +10. recovered yesterdays loss.

waiting for the next set up. need to be patient. market aint doing much at the moment....

XTrade and FX Tsunami , thanks for your analysis. Great work!

You gave us a lot to think about.

FX Tsunami.

As i read, yo use RSI.

RSI in Monthly chart shows a bearish failure swing.



What do you think could be the worst scenario, based in daily macd divergence and this rsi bearish failure swing?

.

Am travelling this week so unable to post much.

Here's a view of SI daily with the red fork still in control. Almost perfect bounce from the blue LP - this was validated by the previous ML action. Remains to be seen if it holds.

http://www.screencast.com/t/wQbKicaQa8

Suggest using stops is essential in this environment - and I want to reiterate that i think the downfork is still in control

beeb

i think Beeb the downfork didnt really cap the recent drive upwards and not reactive towards that particaular fork - i believe it is reactive based on ur chart to the up-fork as the ML caught the high pretty well, and it might react similarly on the lower line.
im no pitchfork master but thats what i think from ur chart
btw have a nice safe trip!

----------------------
GOLD

as for my, i just went long on close based on a nice confluence of a power cycle from Venus. usually i only pay attention to one - but 3 occuring at the same time yesterday, and all 'good' aspects i think gold will react quite bullish to this and we did touch1630s area and bounced a bit too
square of 144 attached + Gold Venus Mars cycles + the 'gathering of power'..

i did post before this date about the possible magnitude of such date so im excited.

This is the current question.
She barely moved overnight and is still teetering on the channel bottom.

Will she break or hold.... Let's take a look at today's news.

In my view the furthest we get is the test of the triangle. Then I can see a great area of demand. I really don't want to see
a lower low here though for the integrity of the chart, technically speaking.

Thanks for the thought

I don't quite know what you mean by "reactive" - last autumn the red downfork caught the low on silver to within 2 cents - I watched it do it at the time. I don't know of any other methodology that could hope to do so. It is a valid fork - it is up to the viewer to interpret it and, as you say, you need more experience.

To my eyes the red downfork is far more valid and likely to lead price than the upfork because it has done so for an extended time. But given the ML and then the LP action the blue is certainly worth watching.

beeb

Hello jsr,

First of all i appreciate for the time taken to read and i thank you for the appreciation. I hope it have helped in some way or the other.

I'm sorry that I didn't mention about monthly RSI. To be frank, i never considered it earlier. When the scenario that you mentioned is considered, it obviously shows a bearish failure swing. If you look at the chart below, the scenario is similar and it paves way for downward movement.

In september 2011 it has broken below 70 level, then retraced back in November during which RSI failed to reach above 70 and a lower high was formed (68.5). After which, it moved further south and managed to break below 64.50 which was the immediate level it reached when in moved down from 70 initially and went on to reach a lower low around 57.60 area from where it pulled back again higher. Even that pull back only managed to form a lower high in January this year. Again it moved down and it has now almost reached 57.60 level made in December 2011. Now it is hovering around 58 to 59 region. If it manages to make a lower low in upcoming weeks, price might naturally make new lows.

Both the charts are almost similar from which we can interpret it might go down. Or may be i was wrong in understanding. Expecting a reply.

Thanks again!!!


ADD: Watch out for US data today. Might have a significant impact.
FXT

if market falls further, i see good buying area at around 1598.

a very strong buying area at around 1530.

long term view, gold is on a decline. with corrections to the upside intermitten. we can trade longs at appropriate levels of decline. overall the year will probably end in a decline in gold prices from the start price of this year.

i have entered a long at 1544. enough range to the upside to take a good few pips. will add further longs if price drops, at levels stated above.

but the long term view seems to be that gold prices is falling....

US job claim is within expectation

Goodbye QE!

off we go gold to 1625!

Majors and some minors getting a bounce against the greenback this AM so far,
let's see if it holds thru NY session.

Could help gold's price.


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