US Beige Book - October 2025 | Metals Mine

  • US Beige Book - October 2025

    From federalreserve.gov Story is in PDF Format

    Economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening. Overall consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks, although auto sales were boosted in some Districts by strong demand for electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit at the end of September. Demand for leisure and hospitality services by international travelers fell further over the reporting period, while demand by domestic consumers was largely unchanged. ... (full story)

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ntrpy
Oct 15, 2025 3:30pm
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Quoting Trader#8E2D
Sounds to me like The Beige Book gives the Fed exactly what it wants to see: a soft landing without new inflation flare-ups. That means “pause mode” remains the smart play — watch data, not act yet. Cuts only become realistic if inflation decisively drops below 2.3% and unemployment ticks above ~4.3%, likely not before early-to-mid 2026.
Which beige book were you reading? It's a pretty stagflationary print.

My readthrough below:
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ntrpy
Oct 15, 2025 3:32pm
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Quoting Trader#28A8
{quote} so any chance of rate cuts? i have a feeling they wont cut again
FedWatch Tool is your friend.
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Trader#8E2D
Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm
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Sounds to me like The Beige Book gives the Fed exactly what it wants to see: a soft landing without new inflation flare-ups.
That means “pause mode” remains the smart play — watch data, not act yet.

Cuts only become realistic if inflation decisively drops below 2.3% and unemployment ticks above ~4.3%, likely not before early-to-mid 2026.
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Trader#28A8
Oct 15, 2025 1:22pm
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Quoting Trader#8E2D
Sounds to me like The Beige Book gives the Fed exactly what it wants to see: a soft landing without new inflation flare-ups. That means “pause mode” remains the smart play — watch data, not act yet. Cuts only become realistic if inflation decisively drops below 2.3% and unemployment ticks above ~4.3%, likely not before early-to-mid 2026.
so any chance of rate cuts? i have a feeling they wont cut again
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Trader#CAF4
Oct 15, 2025 1:32pm
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Quoting Trader#28A8
{quote} so any chance of rate cuts? i have a feeling they wont cut again
This is just my guess, don’t know definitely

Fed Action Probability Bias Reason
Raise Rates Very Low Inflation easing, growth moderating
Hold Rates Highest Conditions restrictive but stable
Cut Rates Low (Q1–Q2 2026 earliest) Would require visible economic weakening or disinflation below 2%
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Trader#D36E
Oct 15, 2025 2:05pm
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Employment is way to close to neutral and demand for workers is less then supply of workers.

One could speculate that maybe, as a prevention to avoid any problems with employment, they do another 25bps and then if no significant changes happen they simply hold.
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