Tariffs are pushing prices higher and consumers are feeling the hit, Fed’s Beige Book shows

The Federal Reserve isn't directly impacted by the government shutdown, and they have just released their Beige Book report, which is an anecdotal survey on the state of the US economy. It suggests there has been a slight loss of momentum in activity over the past eight weeks, which supports the messaging from Fed Chair Jerome Powell yesterday that the ...

Economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening. Overall consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks, although auto sales were boosted in some Districts by strong demand for electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit at the end of September. Demand for leisure and hospitality services by international travelers fell further over the reporting period, while demand by domestic consumers was largely unchanged. Nevertheless, spending by higher-income individuals on luxury travel and accommodation was reportedly strong. Several reports highlighted that lower- and middle-income households continued to seek discounts and promotions in the face of rising prices and elevated economic uncertainty. Manufacturing activity varied by District, and most reports noted challenging conditions due to higher tariffs and waning overall demand. Activity in agriculture, energy, and transportation was generally down among reporting Districts. Conditions in the financial services sector and other interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as residential and commercial real estate, were mixed; some reports noted improved business lending in recent weeks due to lower interest rates, while other reports continued to highlight muted activity. The outlook for future economic growth varied by District and sector. Sentiment reportedly improved in a few Districts, with some contacts expecting an uptick in demand over the next 6 to 12 months. However, many others continued to expect elevated uncertainty to weigh down activity. One District report highlighted the downside risk to growth from a prolonged government shutdown. Fed Beige Book Said Overall Economic Activity Was Little Changed; Three Districts Saw Modest Growth, Five Were Flat, And Four Reported Slight Softening Fed Beige Book: Wages grew across all reporting distrcts. MORE FED'S BEIGE BOOK: 'EMPLOYMENT LEVELS 'LARGELY STABLE;' DEMAND FOR LABOR 'LARGELY MUTED;' WAGES UP 'AT MODEST TO MODERATE PACE' #BeigeBk #FederalReserve #economy

Fed's Miran: AI Investment Could Lead To Higher Neutral Interest Rate FED'S MIRAN SAYS RECENT POLICY CHANGES, INCLUDING IMMIGRATION, HAVE PRODUCED FAST CHANGES IN THE NEUTRAL RATE || SAYS CURRENT FED POLICY IS MORE RESTRICTIVE THAN PEOPLE THINK BECAUSE THE NEUTRAL RATE HAS FALLEN FED'S MIRAN SAYS DON'T THINK MOVING BY MORE THAN 50 BPS CUTS IS NECESSARY MIRAN: NO EVIDENCE IN THE DATA THAT TARIFFS ARE RAISING INFLATION; ARGUMENTS OTHERWISE ARE BASED ON PRIOR TRENDS KEY CATEGORIES OF IMPORTED GOODS ARE NOT SEEING PRICE INCREASES THAT DIFFERENT FROM OTHER GOODS