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  • #461
  • Nov 10, 2021 7:38pm Nov 10, 2021 7:38pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} * Hikes probabilities for 2022 jumping to the highs and above https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html# +25bp in March jumping to 17%+ +25bp (minimum) in June jumping above 65% * US10Y engulfing at the lows * EURUSD losing 1.154x {quote} => All aligning for a flush in EURUSD Supports discussed last month : {quote} - 1.149x Major MT Break up / 50% MT retracement (too many retails have it to me) - 1.146x continuation up from July 2020 triggered by EU Bonds-like fact - 1.137x/9x -...

US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet

heading to yearly highs (1.7xx), and probably yearly highs + 25bp ( ~ 1.9x), pre-covid range

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  • #462
  • Edited 8:39pm Nov 10, 2021 8:11pm | Edited 8:39pm
EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

The triggered continuation down has moved H4 Top down to 1.158x

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To find H4 Bottom, one has to roll back to July 2020 when European Council II (July 21th, 2020) agreed the EU Bonds-like mechanism

As said earlier, break up point of that European Council sits at 1.146x.

But it's not the whole bottom structure. There are some charts available (D1 & W1) from last year here when thread was riding that EU Bonds mechanism :

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13078681

One can see there a part of the bottom structure but not totally. Will try to post it clean and complete later.


==========================================================================


EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

D1 top 1.164x remains unchanged

For the bottom same remark as for H4, one needs to roll back to that European Council to find it.

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  • #463
  • Nov 17, 2021 9:48am Nov 17, 2021 9:48am
one week later

Quoting Replicant
{quote} * Hikes probabilities for 2022 jumping to the highs and above https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html# +25bp in March jumping to 17%+ +25bp (minimum) in June jumping above 65% * US10Y engulfing at the lows * EURUSD losing 1.154x {quote} => All aligning for a flush in EURUSD Supports discussed last month : {quote} - 1.149x Major MT Break up / 50% MT retracement (too many retails have it to me) - 1.146x continuation up from July 2020 triggered by EU Bonds-like fact - 1.137x/9x...
=> flush checked


Quoting Replicant
Very expensive entries to enter short, r:r wise All les coquins entered short on the pullback to 1.157x after the CPI release (basically they unload all their longs, and swap to shorts) If your MM allows, pending short 1.151x TP1 1.146x TP2 1.139x TP3 1.129x is the play to ride the exhaustion move. Otherwise you just let it go, and front run/corner ECB with the big hands later when ECB Q meeting appears in the horizon
=> shorts were not filled but for the record, all targets and exhaustion move checked. Very few left to the short side, extrem sits @ 1.118x/1.122x, which is FA & TA rock bottom

=> To the long side :

FA wise, you either wait for

=> ECB Q meeting [poor call to me]

=> Next monthly round of EZ inflation numbers (which will start next friday but core of the releases will only come one week later, just a couple of days before ECB Q meeting) [better call]

=> CL's (& Weidmann's) speech(es) scheduled next friday in Frankfurt, in order to track an early hint of what could deliver ECB in 2 weeks. CBs always try to make things as smooth as possible for markets so normally they avoid making u-turn during their monetary policy meeting and prefer giving early hints before. [the smart call, at least to me]. On a side note, how calendar sometimes can be funny : head of ECB coming to Germany when inflation is at historical highs but when their easing policy is also at historical highs ...

TA wise, still to the long side, you simply track markets taking back any broken SL in the small TF, then jump in on the retrace to that SL
  • #464
  • Nov 18, 2021 8:30am Nov 18, 2021 8:30am
Quoting Replicant
[...] TA wise, still to the long side, you simply track markets taking back any broken SL in the small TF, then jump in on the retrace to that SL
1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4)

=================================================

resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x
supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x
  • #465
  • Nov 18, 2021 8:53am Nov 18, 2021 8:53am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x
EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

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  • #466
  • Nov 19, 2021 6:49am Nov 19, 2021 6:49am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x

resistance 1.137x checked
support 1.129x more or less holding so far


Quoting Replicant
[...] To the long side :FA wise, you either wait for => ECB Q meeting [poor call to me] => Next monthly round of EZ inflation numbers (which will start next friday but core of the releases will only come one week later, just a couple of days before ECB Q meeting) [better call] => CL's (& Weidmann's) speech(es) scheduled next friday in Frankfurt, in order to track an early hint of what could deliver ECB in 2 weeks. CBs always try to make things as smooth as possible for markets so normally they avoid making u-turn during their monetary...

CL didn't trigger any tightening expectations and still keep cold showering any hikes expectations for 2022
Inflation numbers will. We had another insane number today from Germany (manufacturing prices 3.8% mom !!!). Core of the releases coming in a week.
CL has just missed the window to me. Even European Commission disagrees with her 2022 forecast.

Quoting Replicant
[...] TA wise, still to the long side, you simply track markets taking back any broken SL in the small TF, then jump in on the retrace to that SL
=> Longs were filled @ 1.131x

Tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close
  • #467
  • Nov 19, 2021 7:10am Nov 19, 2021 7:10am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} resistance 1.137x checked support 1.129x more or less holding so far {quote} CL didn't trigger any tightening expectations and still keep cold showering any hikes expectations for 2022 Inflation numbers will. We had another insane number today from Germany (manufacturing prices 3.8% mom !!!). Core of the releases coming in a week. CL has just missed the window to me. Even European Commission disagrees with her 2022 forecast. {quote} => Longs were filled @ 1.131x Tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close...
Weidmann speaking, clearly disagrees with CL
ECB is a lone wolf now in the world of CBs

Are markets going to corner ECB ?

TA wise, 1.129x not holding any more on intraday, still tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close though

Will close longs below
  • #468
  • Nov 19, 2021 8:34am Nov 19, 2021 8:34am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Weidmann speaking, clearly disagrees with CL ECB is a lone wolf now in the world of CBs Are markets going to corner ECB ? TA wise, 1.129x not holding any more on intraday, still tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close though Will close longs below
It's done by the look of it
One of these days when markets unfold flawlessly

Quoting Replicant
{quote} resistance 1.137x checked support 1.129x more or less holding so far {quote} CL didn't trigger any tightening expectations and still keep cold showering any hikes expectations for 2022 Inflation numbers will. We had another insane number today from Germany (manufacturing prices 3.8% mom !!!). Core of the releases coming in a week. CL has just missed the window to me. Even European Commission disagrees with her 2022 forecast. {quote} => Longs were filled @ 1.131x Tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close
Long 1.131x TP1 1.142x TP2 1.150x TP3 1.157x is the swing play to the upside
  • #469
  • Nov 19, 2021 11:08am Nov 19, 2021 11:08am
EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

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  • #470
  • Nov 19, 2021 4:05pm Nov 19, 2021 4:05pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Weidmann speaking, clearly disagrees with CL ECB is a lone wolf now in the world of CBs Are markets going to corner ECB ? TA wise, 1.129x not holding any more on intraday, still tracking 1.129x/1.131x for the close though Will close longs below
1.129x/1.131 didn't hold at the end, not insisting, longs out -30 pips
  • #471
  • Nov 20, 2021 10:20am Nov 20, 2021 10:20am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x
TA wise, 1.129x not holding has unlocked 1.122x

Not trading it though (untradable r:r wise to me), will try to load longs late in the week in the 1.122x/1.118x area, ahead of EZ inflation releases & ECB new inflations projections (which should be revised up strongly (last European Commission inflation forecast for 2022 is 30% above last ECB projection for reference).

Next week, we have last shot of US inflation numbers (PCE which is FED preferred measure of inflation) + some outdated FOMC minutes (because meeting happened before the game changer CPI release). Macro wise, a lot of other releases but, hey, monetary policy wise, it's all about inflation.

=================================================================

For reference, Summer 2020 Bottom structure discussed 2 weeks ago :


Summer 2020 H4 Bottom


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Summer 2020 D1 Bottom


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=================================================================

Quoting Replicant
{quote} US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet heading to yearly highs (1.7xx), and probably yearly highs + 25bp ( ~ 1.9x), pre-covid range {image}
US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet

Chop.
1.63x & 1.54x both checked for the record.

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  • #472
  • Nov 23, 2021 12:43pm Nov 23, 2021 12:43pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} TA wise, 1.129x not holding has unlocked 1.122xNot trading it though (untradable r:r wise to me), will try to load longs late in the week in the 1.122x/1.118x area, ahead of EZ inflation releases & ECB new inflations projections (which should be revised up strongly (last European Commission inflation forecast for 2022 is 30% above last ECB projection for reference...
1.122x checked as W close augured


Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.131x ... (on both H1 & H4) ================================================= resistances 1.137x 1.143x 1.146x 1.151x 1.158x supports 1.129x 1.122x 1.118x
1.122x checked as support as well

Another great prints today from EZ on the growth front. Tomorrow, last shot of US inflation numbers. CPI has already done the job so not expecting much more than a short-lived knee jerk reaction in case of an overshoot.

In fact, expecting big hands to start shifting from the short side to the long side from tomorrow onwards, to position for next week's EZ inflation numbers & ECB Q meeting & projections for 2022.
  • #473
  • Nov 24, 2021 8:10am Nov 24, 2021 8:10am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} TA wise, 1.129x not holding has unlocked 1.122x Not trading it though (untradable r:r wise to me), will try to load longs late in the week in the 1.122x/1.118x area, ahead of EZ inflation releases & ECB new inflations projections (which should be revised up strongly (last European Commission inflation forecast for 2022 is 30% above last ECB projection for reference). Next week, we have last shot of US inflation numbers (PCE which is FED preferred measure of inflation) + some outdated FOMC minutes (because meeting happened...
Here we are. It's trading the very lows of summer 2020 bottom structure now.

=> We are in value area to position for a ST swing to the upside. Looking for longs from NOW onwards

Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.122x checked as W close augured {quote} 1.122x checked as support as well Another great prints today from EZ on the growth front. Tomorrow, last shot of US inflation numbers. CPI has already done the job so not expecting much more than a short-lived knee jerk reaction in case of an overshoot. In fact, expecting big hands to start shifting from the short side to the long side from tomorrow onwards, to position for next week's EZ inflation numbers & ECB Q meeting & projections for 2022.
PCE coming in a few to close the week on the macro front. As said before, to me, CPI has already done the job on this front so not a lot in play. Big hands should start positionning for next week in the upcoming hours.

TA wise, as a trigger to go long, still the same rule :

"track markets taking back any broken SL in the small TF, then jump in on the retrace to that SL"

=> ie. 1.123x
  • #474
  • Last Post: Jan 16, 2022 6:12am Jan 16, 2022 6:12am
Hi Replicant,
Any updates after the New Year break?
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