{quote} Imminent break down in play with jobs report as a catalyst for FED's tapering fact leg
EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet
On a side note : Break down in the pair will guarantee HAWKISH ECB next December
{quote} Imminent break down in play with jobs report as a catalyst for FED's tapering fact leg
H4 has already broken down the range
But obviously, for the called swing above, break down to track are on D1 & W1 close (1.1524 for reference)
Bulls haven't given up yet but they are only riding hope below 1.154x
{quote} Shorts were filled in EURUSD : Short 1.157x TP1 1.149x TP2 1.137x TP3 1.129x {quote} Resistances : 1.157x, 1.161x, 1.164x Supports : 1.154x
Clearing shorts here @ 1.154x, for a very symbolic +30 pips
Max drawdown = -40 pips
Max drawup = +60 pips
Ok EURUSD Quick Wrap up
On the bulls side :
- H1 has now a confirmed floor @ 1.154x (break up point being 1.156x for reference)
- H4 hasn't yet but will have the same confirmed floor @ 1.154x once it breaks up 1.161x (which is btw last FOMC close)
- D1 has still no floor, needs to break up 1.169x ; bulls waterline in this TF sits @ 1.159x
On the bears side :
- H4, D1, W1 all have a confirmed top (1.166x, 1.164x, 1.211x)
- Last break down point on H4 sits @ 1.157x
- Last break down point on D1 sits @ the same 1.157x
- Last break down point on W1 sits @ 1.166x
That break down point 1.157x has capped friday flow so far ....
So trading maps look simple :
for the micro flow :
bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x
for the swing flow :
flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x
===============================================================
yes if it breaks up back 1.161x
FA wise, that might sound like not making a lot of sense, but, hey, we had the FED tapering official announcement plus great NFP, and yet failed to break down ...
I'm going to track very very closely the behaviour of last break down point 1.157x next week
If it keeps capping the flow that won't be good as it will augur another attempt to break down.
Next week is US Inflation week with expectations aligning for numbers ticking up again after a pause
While next round of EZ inflation numbers coming in 3 weeks. ECB Q meeting & new projections in 3 and a half.
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EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet
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EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet
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EURUSD W1 Cheat Sheet
On the bulls side :
- H1 has now a confirmed floor @ 1.154x (break up point being 1.156x for reference)
- H4 hasn't yet but will have the same confirmed floor @ 1.154x once it breaks up 1.161x (which is btw last FOMC close)
- D1 has still no floor, needs to break up 1.169x ; bulls waterline in this TF sits @ 1.159x
On the bears side :
- H4, D1, W1 all have a confirmed top (1.166x, 1.164x, 1.211x)
- Last break down point on H4 sits @ 1.157x
- Last break down point on D1 sits @ the same 1.157x
- Last break down point on W1 sits @ 1.166x
That break down point 1.157x has capped friday flow so far ....
So trading maps look simple :
for the micro flow :
bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x
for the swing flow :
flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x
===============================================================
we prolly have set the low of the year in EURUSD TFs going to turn bullish, one by one, by the look of it
FA wise, that might sound like not making a lot of sense, but, hey, we had the FED tapering official announcement plus great NFP, and yet failed to break down ...
I'm going to track very very closely the behaviour of last break down point 1.157x next week
If it keeps capping the flow that won't be good as it will augur another attempt to break down.
Next week is US Inflation week with expectations aligning for numbers ticking up again after a pause
While next round of EZ inflation numbers coming in 3 weeks. ECB Q meeting & new projections in 3 and a half.
===============================================================
EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet
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EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet
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EURUSD W1 Cheat Sheet
- #452
- Edited 12:10pm Nov 9, 2021 11:42am | Edited 12:10pm
Ok let's go then, markets decide ... Again, very very suspicious what happened today ... ECB ???? => Long 1.154x TP1 1.161x TP2 1.166x TP3 1.172x {image}
[...] So trading maps look simple : for the micro flow : bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x for the swing flow : flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x [...]
Micro flow has unfold flawlessly so far with 1.157x flipping from resistance to support.
EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet
EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet
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Micro flow is over to me. Real deal and next chapter is the swing flow with 1.161x marking the flip :
[...] So trading maps look simple : for the micro flow : bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x for the swing flow : flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x [...]
=> KEY moment for EURUSD to confirm the low of the year (yes yes) ...
we prolly have set the low of the year in EURUSD TFs going to turn bullish, one by one, by the look of it
[...] yes if it breaks up back 1.161x FA wise, that might sound like not making a lot of sense, but, hey, we had the FED tapering official announcement plus great NFP, and yet failed to break down ... [...]
For those who followed my narrative on US 10Y, we have, on top, US 10Y in full synch, sitting at key area as well and trying again right now to break down :
{quote} Needless to say if US 10Y marks a top/reverses down despite the context of FED tapering & jobs back to an uptrend, that will say a lot about how low markets expectations are for next FED move. CME FedWatch Tool has pointed as well a decrease in FED hikes probabilities for 2022 since last week : https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html# Obviously, US 10Y marking a top/reversing will imply EURUSD marking a bottom/reversing Very generally speaking, US 10Y tends to be ahead. FA wise, that would mean markets...
US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet
As said earlier, US 10Y tends to be ahead in the world of financial markets.
Very very important markets decision on rates expectations coming ...
[...] For those who followed my narrative on US 10Y, we have, on top, US 10Y in full synch, sitting at key area as well and trying again right now to break down : {quote} US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet {image} As said earlier, US 10Y tends to be ahead in the world of financial markets. Very very important markets decision on rates expectations coming ...
Oh les coquins
