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Quoting Replicant
{quote} Imminent break down in play with jobs report as a catalyst for FED's tapering fact leg

EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

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On a side note : Break down in the pair will guarantee HAWKISH ECB next December
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURGBP levels I have Resistances : 0.858x, 0.863x, 0.867x Supports : 0.851x, 0.847x, 0.842x
EURGBP Res 0.858x checked

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Quoting Replicant
{quote} Imminent break down in play with jobs report as a catalyst for FED's tapering fact leg
EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

H4 has already broken down the range

But obviously, for the called swing above, break down to track are on D1 & W1 close (1.1524 for reference)

Bulls haven't given up yet but they are only riding hope below 1.154x

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And here we are, back at 1.154x. Some hands fighting hard against the break down because they know the inveitable flush that will follow ...

Suspecting ECB to defend the area ...

Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet {image} On a side note : Break down in the pair will guarantee HAWKISH ECB next December
H4 is now engulfing at the lows after breaking down the range, that's very bullish, still 90 min left though
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Shorts were filled in EURUSD : Short 1.157x TP1 1.149x TP2 1.137x TP3 1.129x {quote} Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x, 1.164x Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x
Ok not insisting here

Clearing shorts here @ 1.154x, for a very symbolic +30 pips

Max drawdown = -40 pips
Max drawup = +60 pips
we prolly have set the low of the year in EURUSD

TFs going to turn bullish, one by one, by the look of it
Ok let's go then, markets decide ...

Again, very very suspicious what happened today ... ECB ????

=> Long 1.154x TP1 1.161x TP2 1.166x TP3 1.172x


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Ok EURUSD Quick Wrap up

On the bulls side :

- H1 has now a confirmed floor @ 1.154x (break up point being 1.156x for reference)
- H4 hasn't yet but will have the same confirmed floor @ 1.154x once it breaks up 1.161x (which is btw last FOMC close)
- D1 has still no floor, needs to break up 1.169x ; bulls waterline in this TF sits @ 1.159x

On the bears side :

- H4, D1, W1 all have a confirmed top (1.166x, 1.164x, 1.211x)
- Last break down point on H4 sits @ 1.157x
- Last break down point on D1 sits @ the same 1.157x
- Last break down point on W1 sits @ 1.166x

That break down point 1.157x has capped friday flow so far ....

So trading maps look simple :

for the micro flow :

bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x

for the swing flow :

flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x

===============================================================

Quoting Replicant
we prolly have set the low of the year in EURUSD TFs going to turn bullish, one by one, by the look of it
yes if it breaks up back 1.161x

FA wise, that might sound like not making a lot of sense, but, hey, we had the FED tapering official announcement plus great NFP, and yet failed to break down ...

I'm going to track very very closely the behaviour of last break down point 1.157x next week

If it keeps capping the flow that won't be good as it will augur another attempt to break down.

Next week is US Inflation week with expectations aligning for numbers ticking up again after a pause

While next round of EZ inflation numbers coming in 3 weeks. ECB Q meeting & new projections in 3 and a half.

===============================================================

EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

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===============================================================

EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

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EURUSD W1 Cheat Sheet

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US 10Y Cheat sheet

Marking a ST top was avoided to the tick on friday

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Quoting Replicant
US 10Y Cheat sheet Marking a ST top was avoided to the tick on friday {image}
Needless to say if US 10Y marks a top/reverses down despite the context of FED tapering & jobs back to an uptrend, that will say a lot about how low markets expectations are for next FED move.

CME FedWatch Tool has pointed as well a decrease in FED hikes probabilities for 2022 since last week :

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html#

Obviously, US 10Y marking a top/reversing will imply EURUSD marking a bottom/reversing

Very generally speaking, US 10Y tends to be ahead.

FA wise, that would mean markets expect a bigger growth slowdown than previously anticpated after the sharp recovery.

Organic slowdown or triggered by a new covid wave, that doesn't really matter (from a FA perspective obviously).

===============================================================

Thread has already shifted to longs in EURUSD since last friday (for pure TA reasons) so it will be inline with this move, I hadn't initially noticed, if it's confirmed.

US inflation releases coming this week and their impact on bonds to gauje where markets really sit on that front and get a confirmation.
Quoting Replicant
Ok let's go then, markets decide ... Again, very very suspicious what happened today ... ECB ???? => Long 1.154x TP1 1.161x TP2 1.166x TP3 1.172x {image}
TP1 1.161x from 1.154x missed by a couple of pips in EURUSD.

Quoting Replicant
[...] So trading maps look simple : for the micro flow : bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x for the swing flow : flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x [...]

Micro flow has unfold flawlessly so far with 1.157x flipping from resistance to support.


EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

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EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

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===============================================================


Micro flow is over to me. Real deal and next chapter is the swing flow with 1.161x marking the flip :

Quoting Replicant
[...] So trading maps look simple : for the micro flow : bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x for the swing flow : flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x [...]

=> KEY moment for EURUSD to confirm the low of the year (yes yes) ...

Quoting Replicant
we prolly have set the low of the year in EURUSD TFs going to turn bullish, one by one, by the look of it
Quoting Replicant
[...] yes if it breaks up back 1.161x FA wise, that might sound like not making a lot of sense, but, hey, we had the FED tapering official announcement plus great NFP, and yet failed to break down ... [...]

For those who followed my narrative on US 10Y, we have, on top, US 10Y in full synch, sitting at key area as well and trying again right now to break down :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Needless to say if US 10Y marks a top/reverses down despite the context of FED tapering & jobs back to an uptrend, that will say a lot about how low markets expectations are for next FED move. CME FedWatch Tool has pointed as well a decrease in FED hikes probabilities for 2022 since last week : https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html# Obviously, US 10Y marking a top/reversing will imply EURUSD marking a bottom/reversing Very generally speaking, US 10Y tends to be ahead. FA wise, that would mean markets...

US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet

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As said earlier, US 10Y tends to be ahead in the world of financial markets.

Very very important markets decision on rates expectations coming ...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURGBP levels I have Resistances : 0.858x, 0.863x, 0.867x Supports : 0.851x, 0.847x, 0.842x

EURGBP Cheat Sheet

Support 0.851x checked as well

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Quoting Replicant
[...] For those who followed my narrative on US 10Y, we have, on top, US 10Y in full synch, sitting at key area as well and trying again right now to break down : {quote} US 10Y D1 Cheat Sheet {image} As said earlier, US 10Y tends to be ahead in the world of financial markets. Very very important markets decision on rates expectations coming ...

Oh les coquins

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Quoting Replicant
Ok let's go then, markets decide ... Again, very very suspicious what happened today ... ECB ???? => Long 1.154x TP1 1.161x TP2 1.166x TP3 1.172x {image}
US inflation to the moon, big overshoot

Remaining longs cleared @ BE

Max drawup = + 60 pips

Tracking US10Y

& Tracking EURUSD 1.154x

Quoting Replicant
[...] Micro flow is over to me. Real deal and next chapter is the swing flow with 1.161x marking the flip : {quote} => KEY moment for EURUSD to confirm the low of the year (yes yes) ... [...]
Quoting Replicant
[...] So trading maps look simple : for the micro flow : bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x for the swing flow : flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x [...]
Quoting Replicant
{quote} US inflation to the moon, big overshoot Remaining longs cleared @ BE Max drawup = + 60 pips Tracking US10Y & Tracking EURUSD 1.154x {quote} {quote}
We have :

- FED tapering
- US Jobs back to an uptrend
- US inflation sky rocketing

If with that 1.154x holds, you will know where the big big big hands are sitting ...

We are exactly in the same configuration as last friday with NFP report.

Call that resilience if you want

Area über defended
Quoting Replicant
{quote} US inflation to the moon, big overshoot Remaining longs cleared @ BE Max drawup = + 60 pips Tracking US10Y & Tracking EURUSD 1.154x {quote} {quote}
* Hikes probabilities for 2022 jumping to the highs and above

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...-to-fomc.html#

+25bp in March jumping to 17%+

+25bp (minimum) in June jumping above 65%

* US10Y engulfing at the lows

* EURUSD losing 1.154x

Quoting Replicant
[...] So trading maps look simple : for the micro flow : bottom 1.154x <==> flip 1.157x <==> top 1.161x for the swing flow : flush <== [1.154x] <==> flip 1.161x <==> top 1.169x ext 1.172x[...]
=> All aligning for a flush in EURUSD

Supports discussed last month :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Looks dead. Sitting at very last support 1.154x now. A dozen more pips and price will have browsed the whole month range in a day. if Brexit circus remains (small chance to get off with some scheduled talks off G20 this week-end), it will be a nightmare to trade the pair because of the inevitable random statements that will flood the wires at any time. In any case, TA wise : Resistances : 1.157x, 1.161x, 1.164x Supports : 1.154x, 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x H4 has already reversed, D1 will with a...
- 1.149x Major MT Break up / 50% MT retracement (too many retails have it to me)
- 1.146x continuation up from July 2020 triggered by EU Bonds-like fact
- 1.137x/9x
- 1.128x
lol they just did it
remember

Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet {image} On a side note : Break down in the pair will guarantee HAWKISH ECB next December
ie. sharps moves down (exhaustion currently in play) and then up expected in the upcoming 3 weeks

very high chances markets will front run ECB ahead of their Q meeting

EZ is not immunize against inflation, EZ releases will follow US ones ...
Very expensive entries to enter short, r:r wise

All les coquins entered short on the pullback to 1.157x after the CPI release (basically they unload all their longs, and swap to shorts)

If your MM allows, pending short 1.151x TP1 1.146x TP2 1.139x TP3 1.129x is the play to ride the exhaustion move.

Otherwise you just let it go, and front run/corner ECB with the big hands later when ECB Q meeting appears in the horizon
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