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  • Post #421
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  • Nov 1, 2021 7:12am Nov 1, 2021 7:12am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
[...]=> it was a zigzag flow but at the end they already checked 1.154x. Still plenty of pips left to make to the short side but problem is the entry as the break down points in many TF sit very low, hence very expensive entries. I have a pending Short 1.157x for 1.149x, 1.137x & 1.129x Some might try higher 1.159x/1.160x but that's only a slight difference, MM wise. =============================================================== TA wise, a lot of things have changed : EURUSD H4 H4 has reversed {image} ===============================================================...
Ignored
Shorts were filled in EURUSD :

Short 1.157x TP1 1.149x TP2 1.137x TP3 1.129x

Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} Looks dead. Sitting at very last support 1.154x now. A dozen more pips and price will have browsed the whole month range in a day. if Brexit circus remains (small chance to get off with some scheduled talks off G20 this week-end), it will be a nightmare to trade the pair because of the inevitable random statements that will flood the wires at any time. In any case, TA wise : Resistances : 1.157x, 1.161x, 1.164x Supports : 1.154x, 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x H4 has already...
Ignored
Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x, 1.164x
Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x
 
 
  • Post #422
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  • Nov 1, 2021 1:32pm Nov 1, 2021 1:32pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
EURGBP D1 Cheat Sheet

I'm not good at trading that pair lately, my 2 last trades were both stopped out

So for what is worth :

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==> [0.849x ; 0.851x] is a sell area to aim a LL

FA wise, BOE expected to start rate-hike cycle as early as next thursday, while ECB still walking on eggs on that topic

Spoiler : Brexit noise discussed last friday as BJ sounds like he wants to re-negotiate the deal he has signed 10 months earlier (and that took 4 years to draw up)

==> Pending Short 0.849x TP 0.836x

Breaking up (ie. not only breaching) 0.851x is invalidation
 
 
  • Post #423
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  • Edited at 2:53pm Nov 2, 2021 2:43pm | Edited at 2:53pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
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{quote} Shorts were filled in EURUSD : Short 1.157x TP1 1.149x TP2 1.137x TP3 1.129x {quote} Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x, 1.164x Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x
Ignored
Res 1.161x checked

Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x , 1.164x
Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x

===============================================================


Quoting Replicant
Disliked
Next week, all about FED. {quote} => At last Q FOMC, FED projections were dovish on GDP & Employment and hawkish on inflation. => tapering agenda was unveiled : starting in November or December, and ending in spring =============================================================== Since then : {quote} => Employment kept disappointing, NFP flop again FED unemployment rate projection for 2021 was revised up to 4.8% at last Q meeting. Despite last release is inline with this projection, high chances the big miss in NFP for the second time in a row is...
Ignored

D-1 for FED
=> Unchanged FED enough to trigger the continuation down/flush discussed the other day, at least my call


===============================================================


EURUSD H4 Cheat sheet

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===============================================================


EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

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1
  • Post #424
  • Quote
  • Nov 3, 2021 7:26am Nov 3, 2021 7:26am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} Res 1.161x checked Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x , 1.164x Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x =============================================================== {quote} D-1 for FED => Unchanged FED enough to trigger the continuation down/flush discussed the other day, at least my call =============================================================== EURUSD H4 Cheat sheet {image} ===============================================================...
Ignored
Previous resistance 1.157x becoming support in EURUSD. Polarity changes, very basic TA.

But these are only micro flows ahead of FOMC. Staying in [1.157x ; 1.161x] the whole day looks guaranteed before statement & press conference unlock the next swing. Area giving the benefit of the doubt to both bulls & bears.
 
 
  • Post #425
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  • Nov 3, 2021 7:58am Nov 3, 2021 7:58am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
EURGBP D1 Cheat Sheet [...] [0.849x ; 0.851x] is a sell area to aim a LL FA wise, BOE expected to start rate-hike cycle as early as next thursday, while ECB still walking on eggs on that topic Spoiler : Brexit noise discussed last friday as BJ sounds like he wants to re-negotiate the deal he has signed 10 months earlier (and that took 4 years to draw up) ==> Pending Short 0.849x TP 0.836x Breaking up (ie. not only breaching) 0.851x is invalidation
Ignored
EURGBP Cheat Sheet

D-1 for BOE

Ongoing Short 0.849x TP 0.836x

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  • Post #426
  • Quote
  • Nov 3, 2021 2:10pm Nov 3, 2021 2:10pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Ok FED statement : tapering starting.

(As hinted at last FOMC ; the only ? was will it start in November or December)
 
 
  • Post #427
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  • Nov 3, 2021 2:12pm Nov 3, 2021 2:12pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
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Ok FED statement : tapering starting. (As hinted at last FOMC ; the only ? was will it start in November & December)
Ignored
lol @ the knee jerk reaction on statement release :

1.157x <==> 1.161x

Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} Previous resistance 1.157x becoming support in EURUSD. Polarity changes, very basic TA. But these are only micro flows ahead of FOMC. Staying in [1.157x ; 1.161x] the whole day looks guaranteed before statement & press conference unlock the next swing. Area giving the benefit of the doubt to both bulls & bears.
Ignored
press conference to unlock the swing (or not)
 
 
  • Post #428
  • Quote
  • Nov 3, 2021 2:29pm Nov 3, 2021 2:29pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
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Ok FED statement : tapering starting. (As hinted at last FOMC ; the only ? was will it start in November or December)
Ignored
Tapering pace inline as well with expectations (6 months agenda / tapering till late spring)
 
 
  • Post #429
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  • Nov 3, 2021 2:34pm Nov 3, 2021 2:34pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
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{quote} Tapering pace inline as well with expectations (6 months agenda / tapering till late spring)
Ignored
To me, it's already enough to trigger the swing.

Upcoming JP's conference is only to gauje 2022 hikes expectations

We had fresh news from ECB on that topic today :

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...n#post13771005
 
 
  • Post #430
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 6:44am Nov 4, 2021 6:44am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} To me, it's already enough to trigger the swing. Upcoming JP's conference is only to gauje 2022 hikes expectations We had fresh news from ECB on that topic today : https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...n#post13771005
Ignored
=> And the Swing unfolds... EURUSD wiping out the bears one by one as called above.

Yes Tapering & Tapering agenda were already highly hinted at Septbember FOMC, so what's new with October FOMC ? Nothing, just the fact leg.

=> The "Buy the rumour, sell the news" mantra never applies when a CB starts a new monetary policy cycle.
Just look at your 2017 chart, the ECB tapering expectations leg and then later the ECB tapering fact leg ...

===============================================================

In any case, TA wise :

Quoting Replicant
Disliked
[...]Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x , 1.164x Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x =============================================================== {quote} D-1 for FED => Unchanged FED enough to trigger the continuation down/flush discussed the other day, at least my call
Ignored

=> EURUSD sitting at very last support 1.154x before new yearly lows

==> 1.149x ==> 1.137x ==> 1.129x is the swing play as wrote above

Only Markets & EZ inflation frontrunning ECB tapering decision (the only major CB that hasn't pulled the trigger yet on tightening) can kill this swing to me

===============================================================

EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

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EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet

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  • Post #431
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 8:02am Nov 4, 2021 8:02am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} EURGBP Cheat Sheet D-1 for BOE Ongoing Short 0.849x TP 0.836x {image}
Ignored
BOE : No hike

Shorts cleared at BE
 
 
  • Post #432
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 8:07am Nov 4, 2021 8:07am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
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{quote} BOE : No hike Shorts cleared at BE
Ignored
Reversal up in play in EURGBP : 0.851x level to track ...

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  • Post #433
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 10:11am Nov 4, 2021 10:11am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
[...] In any case, TA wise : {quote} => EURUSD sitting at very last support 1.154x before new yearly lows ==> 1.149x ==> 1.137x ==> 1.129x is the swing play as wrote above Only Markets & EZ inflation frontrunning ECB tapering decision (the only major CB that hasn't pulled the trigger yet on tightening) can kill this swing to me =============================================================== EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet {image} EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet {image}
Ignored
Smooth flow in EURUSD

break ... retrace ... break ... retrace ... that's how a swing breaths ...

Quoting Replicant
Disliked
[...] Resistances : 1.157x , 1.161x , 1.164x Supports : 1.154x , 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x [...]
Ignored
Break, Retrace to 1.157x and now back to 1.154x, which is hinting imminent break down ...

Again, 1.154x is rain maker for new yearly lows ...
 
 
  • Post #434
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 10:41am Nov 4, 2021 10:41am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Main stream medias all over the world reporting all average Joes buying stocks

Countless youtube stock trading channels making a killer

Yesterday I saw at the news students putting all their thin savings in the stock markets

RIP

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  • Post #435
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 10:54am Nov 4, 2021 10:54am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
Main stream medias all over the world reporting all average Joes buying stocks Countless youtube stock trading channels making a killer Yesterday I saw at the news students putting all their thin savings in the stock markets RIP {image}
Ignored
Yen flows today ...

even USDJPY depsite yesterday FOMC

=> Aligning for risk-off ?
 
 
  • Post #436
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 11:48am Nov 4, 2021 11:48am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} Reversal up in play in EURGBP : 0.851x level to track ... {image}
Ignored
reversal up checked

EURGBP has a hard bottom now

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1
  • Post #437
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:32pm Nov 4, 2021 12:32pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} reversal up checked EURGBP has a hard bottom now {image}
Ignored
EURGBP levels I have

Resistances : 0.858x, 0.863x, 0.867x
Supports : 0.851x, 0.847x, 0.842x
 
 
  • Post #438
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2021 1:49pm Nov 4, 2021 1:49pm
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} Smooth flow in EURUSD break ... retrace ... break ... retrace ... that's how a swing breaths ... {quote} Break, Retrace to 1.157x and now back to 1.154x, which is hinting imminent break down ... Again, 1.154x is rain maker for new yearly lows ...
Ignored
EURUSD 1.154x set to hold the day

Markets not playing the ball yet, ahead of NFP release. They are still on the back foot on that front, following last 2 disapppointing prints.

Expectations quite high, +400k. Inline is enough to wipe out the floor. TA wise, we are sitting at the very lows so markets betting for a good number ...


EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet

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EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet


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  • Post #439
  • Quote
  • Nov 5, 2021 8:47am Nov 5, 2021 8:47am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} EURUSD 1.154x set to hold the day Markets not playing the ball yet, ahead of NFP release. They are still on the back foot on that front, following last 2 disapppointing prints. Expectations quite high, +400k. Inline is enough to wipe out the floor. TA wise, we are sitting at the very lows so markets betting for on a good number ... EURUSD H4 Cheat Sheet {image} EURUSD D1 Cheat Sheet {image}
Ignored
Checked

Great report, NFP above expectations + revision up for previous release, unemployment rate ticking 4.6% which is 0.2% below FED Projection for 2021

Floor won't hold
 
 
  • Post #440
  • Quote
  • Nov 5, 2021 8:50am Nov 5, 2021 8:50am
  •  Replicant
  • Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 843 Posts
Quoting Replicant
Disliked
{quote} Smooth flow in EURUSD break ... retrace ... break ... retrace ... that's how a swing breaths ... {quote} Break, Retrace to 1.157x and now back to 1.154x, which is hinting imminent break down ... Again, 1.154x is rain maker for new yearly lows ...
Ignored
Imminent break down in play with jobs report as a catalyst for FED's tapering fact leg
 
 
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