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  • #381
  • Sep 24, 2021 7:16am Sep 24, 2021 7:16am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x first decent res I have pulled the trigger to the short side Very risky as it's trading both ST & MT Bottoms, Tight stop, just a few pips above yesterday FOMC high Short 1.173x TP1 1.162x TP2 1.155x STP 1.176x {image}
1.173x held the close yesterday

Despite the green engulfing (which btw is irrelevant as it didn't happen after a break of the lows), there is not even a floor on H1 (yes yes)

1.176x for a floor (hence why my stop sits there)

To the short side, price needs to tick below 1.170x to trigger the continuation down via FED agenda

Next friday, EZ inflation coming (still marked yellow in FF calendar ffs). Remember CL said ECB start discussions in October to unveil tapering agenda. So, timing wise, it will be good to clear 1.162x before the release.

Quoting Replicant
Trying a Short GBPJPY 151.40 TP 150.40 STP 152.0 151.4x last break down point ...
151.4x held the close as well in GBPJPY ..
  • #382
  • Edited 4:11pm Sep 24, 2021 3:35pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x held the close yesterday Despite the green engulfing (which btw is irrelevant as it didn't happen after a break of the lows), there is not even a floor on H1 (yes yes) 1.176x for a floor (hence why my stop sits there) To the short side, price needs to tick below 1.170x to trigger the continuation down via FED agenda Next friday, EZ inflation coming (still marked yellow in FF calendar ffs). Remember CL said ECB start discussions in October to unveil tapering agenda. So, timing wise, it will be good to clear 1.162x before...
1.170x held to the very last tick in EURUSD, avoiding capitulation .. so far ..

Quoting Replicant
... 151.4x held the close as well in GBPJPY ..
Last break down point, 151.4x, still capping in GBPJPY.
Yen flows are heavily (always) correlated to Equities risk on/off. For reference, US Equities - ES - still has so margin for its retrace : 449x.
This to say, trade stop might be exposed if ES completes the full retrace.
  • #383
  • Sep 27, 2021 5:51am Sep 27, 2021 5:51am
Quoting Replicant
Trying a Short GBPJPY 151.40 TP 150.40 STP 152.0 151.4x last break down point ...
Stop was hit, -60 pips

Max drawup = +40
  • #384
  • Sep 29, 2021 9:22am Sep 29, 2021 9:22am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x first decent res I have pulled the trigger to the short side Very risky as it's trading both ST & MT Bottoms, Tight stop, just a few pips above yesterday FOMC high Short 1.173x TP1 1.162x TP2 1.155x STP 1.176x {image}

First target 1.162x hit in EURUSD, +100 pips

Max drawdown = -20 pips

Next target 1.155x. Trailing Stop to 1.169x now for the remaining shorts.


Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x held the close yesterday Despite the green engulfing (which btw is irrelevant as it didn't happen after a break of the lows), there is not even a floor on H1 (yes yes) 1.176x for a floor (hence why my stop sits there) To the short side, price needs to tick below 1.170x to trigger the continuation down via FED agenda Next friday, EZ inflation coming (still marked yellow in FF calendar ffs). Remember CL said ECB start discussions in October to unveil tapering agenda. So, timing wise, it will be good to clear 1.162x before...

Checked, right before EZ inflation releases.

Next ECB meeting coming very late in October though. Anything very deep below 1.16 handle in between will add fuel to inflation and will corner ecen more ECB for next meeting.

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Falling in hawkish case implies the continuation down discussed the other day ie. : ==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x EZ inflation (Oct 1st), only FA event able to stop the flow
Still sticking to 1.149x as a max for current FED flows
  • #385
  • Sep 29, 2021 12:26pm Sep 29, 2021 12:26pm
Was particularly unlucky in my GBPJPY trade. Pulling the trigger again in the pound sterling but this time vs EUR. Hopefully coming with less volatile ebb.

Long EURGBP 0.864x TP1 0.874x TP2 0.884x TP3 0.892x TP4 0.904x STP 0.856x

Quoting Replicant
EURUGBP 0.867x guaranteed ... Après, on discute ...
=> they are going to break up 0.867x ... unlocking big retrace in the pair as high as 0.904x

entry 0.864x is particularly expensive as it's currently trading the top of the ST range but, hey, call is all about wiping this top out.
  • #386
  • Sep 30, 2021 7:20am Sep 30, 2021 7:20am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x first decent res I have pulled the trigger to the short side Very risky as it's trading both ST & MT Bottoms, Tight stop, just a few pips above yesterday FOMC high Short 1.173x TP1 1.162x TP2 1.155x STP 1.176x {image}
Second target 1.155x in EURUSD missed by a few pips.
I want to clear this one quickly with US Open before EOQ/EOW flows (try to) save 1.16 handle.
  • #387
  • Sep 30, 2021 8:53am Sep 30, 2021 8:53am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x first decent res I have pulled the trigger to the short side Very risky as it's trading both ST & MT Bottoms, Tight stop, just a few pips above yesterday FOMC high Short 1.173x TP1 1.162x TP2 1.155x STP 1.176x {image}
Clearing remaining shorts now at 1.158x in EURUSD, +150 pips from 1.173x

Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = = +170 pips

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Second target 1.155x in EURUSD missed by a few pips. I want to clear this one quickly with US Open before EOQ/EOW flows (try to) save 1.16 handle.
By the look of it, they are going to save the handle ....

=====================================

Macro wise, highlight of the day, EZ confirming recovery well on track via unemployment rate ticking 7.5%
EZ is ahead of the US on that front, who are still a long way from pre-covid levels (as FED outlooks and last JP statements pointed out)
  • #388
  • Oct 4, 2021 11:45am Oct 4, 2021 11:45am
Quoting Replicant
Was particularly unlucky in my GBPJPY trade. Pulling the trigger again in the pound sterling but this time vs EUR. Hopefully coming with less volatile ebb. Long EURGBP 0.864x TP1 0.874x TP2 0.884x TP3 0.892x TP4 0.904x STP 0.856x {quote} => they are going to break up 0.867x ... unlocking big retrace in the pair as high as 0.904x entry 0.864x is particularly expensive as it's currently trading the top of the ST range but, hey, call is all about wiping this top out.
That one was stopped out, -80 pips

Max drawup = 0 pip

I'm officially a dick in trading the pound sterling

Call me crazy but as FA remains a no brainer buy (for several hundreds pf pips) via ongoing brexit reality check in the UK, I have pulled the trigger again :

Long EURGBP 0.853x TP1 0.863x TP2 0.874x TP3 0.884x TP4 0.904x STP 0.847x
  • #389
  • Oct 4, 2021 12:17pm Oct 4, 2021 12:17pm
In EURUSD :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Falling in hawkish case implies the continuation down discussed the other day ie. : ==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x EZ inflation (Oct 1st), only FA event able to stop the flow
Last friday EZ inflation release ticking +3.4% => EURUSD building a floor

Insane number, marked yellow in FF calendar. Thx for raising the level FF ....

Again, remember ECB said at last meeting they will start discussions in October to unveil tapering agenda. No wonder how biased are going to be the discussions under such print. Inflation has more chances to become structural in EZ than in the US because of employment figures that are already back to pre-covid levels in the zone (labour shortage, wages up up up).

TA wise, for the record :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.173x first decent res I have pulled the trigger to the short side Very risky as it's trading both ST & MT Bottoms, Tight stop, just a few pips above yesterday FOMC high Short 1.173x TP1 1.162x TP2 1.155x STP 1.176x {image}
1.155x has floored the flow to the tick twice.

This said, there is only a confirmed floor on H1 (1.157x). On H4, it's trying to build one at 1.159x (not confirmed yet). On D1, sailing above 1.168x would be a start.

FA wise, only decent FA event this week is NFP. Expectations is +490K which is a poor number regarding the number of destroyed jobs via the lockdowns (cruising speed should be above at least +700K/+800K per month to catch up pre-covid levels). But as FED outlooks pointed out, their members are fully aware revovery on that front will be slower than previously expected.

This to say, floor under construction in the pair should hold the NFP flow fingers in the nose if the release is inline or even slightly overshooting.
  • #390
  • Oct 6, 2021 9:27am Oct 6, 2021 9:27am
Quoting Replicant
In EURUSD [...] This to say, floor under construction in the pair should hold the NFP flow fingers in the nose if the release is inline or even slightly overshooting.
Floor hasn't held in EURUSD. Risk-off wiping out the bottom via hands selling equities and cashing Dollar and Yen.

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Falling in hawkish case implies the continuation down discussed the other day ie. : ==> 1.162x ==> max 1.149x EZ inflation (Oct 1st), only FA event able to stop the flow
=> 1.149x, major MT break up, looks very exposed now. 1.149x is also 50% retracement of the 1.063x --> 1.234x MT swing.

Still sideline in the pair but with now a pending long at 1.149x to try to ride another attempt of the pair to build a floor (prolly via upcoming NFP ; employment = the soft side of US recovery).

=> Pending Long 1.149x TP1 1.158x TP2 1.167x STP 1.144x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #391
  • Oct 13, 2021 8:23am Oct 13, 2021 8:23am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Floor hasn't held in EURUSD. Risk-off wiping out the bottom via hands selling equities and cashing Dollar and Yen. {quote} => 1.149x, major MT break up, looks very exposed now. 1.149x is also 50% retracement of the 1.063x --> 1.234x MT swing. Still sideline in the pair but with now a pending long at 1.149x to try to ride another attempt of the pair to build a floor (prolly via upcoming NFP ; employment = the soft side of US recovery). => Pending Long 1.149x TP1 1.158x TP2 1.167x STP 1.144x {image}
Ok so where are we in the pair ?

FA wise :

=> last friday, another big flob in Jobs report, twice in a row, "employment = the soft side of US recovery" checked again. Remember FED runs a dual mandate.
=> today, inflation numbers have confirmed peak is behind and keep cooling down. For reference, annualized core inflation rate of the last 3 months = 2.4%, ie. back on earth. Of course yoy figures still very high following last summer numbers.

TA wise :

Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x.
=> Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor.

- Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x
- If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry

======================================================================

FA minutes of last FOMC to be released tonight
As we saw,that meeting was very hawkish and triggered the flow 1.173x-->1.155x.
But, following last jobs numbers, what is important now to track in the meeting report is how much jobs number could weigh on FED tapering agenda.

On the EZ side :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} First target 1.162x hit in EURUSD, +100 pips Max drawdown = -20 pips Next target 1.155x. Trailing Stop to 1.169x now for the remaining shorts. {quote} Checked, right before EZ inflation releases. Next ECB meeting coming very late in October though. Anything very deep below 1.16 handle in between will add fuel to inflation and will corner ecen more ECB for next meeting. {quote} Still sticking to 1.149x as a max for current FED flows
Exchange rate adding fuel to energy prices in all EZ. ECB is now fully cornered in my view for next meeting.
  • #392
  • Oct 13, 2021 12:06pm Oct 13, 2021 12:06pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} [...] TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry ====================================================================== FA minutes of last FOMC to be released tonight As we saw,that meeting...
EURUSD in synch so far ; upcoming meeting minutes rain maker to confirm and set the floor.

Cheat sheet (or is it shit sheet ?) :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #393
  • Oct 14, 2021 5:58am Oct 14, 2021 5:58am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} That one was stopped out, -80 pips Max drawup = 0 pip I'm officially a dick in trading the pound sterling Call me crazy but as FA remains a no brainer buy (for several hundreds pf pips) via ongoing brexit reality check in the UK, I have pulled the trigger again : Long EURGBP 0.853x TP1 0.863x TP2 0.874x TP3 0.884x TP4 0.904x STP 0.847x
Stop was hit in EURGBP, -60 pips

Max drawup = 0 pip

As ugly as the previous one, definitely not in synch with the pound
  • #394
  • Oct 14, 2021 6:00am Oct 14, 2021 6:00am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} [...] TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry ====================================================================== FA minutes of last FOMC to be released tonight As we saw,that meeting...
First target 1.161x hit in EURUSD, + 70 pips

Max drawdown = 0 pip

Clean
  • #395
  • Oct 14, 2021 6:20am Oct 14, 2021 6:20am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD in synch so far ; upcoming meeting minutes rain maker to confirm and set the floor. Cheat sheet (or is it shit sheet ?) : {image}

EURUSD H4

floor confirmed now in this TF

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EURUSD D1

It's trying to build one @ 1.157x
It needs to break up 1.175x to confirm it so it's far away

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ECB in 2 weeks
  • #396
  • Oct 14, 2021 8:56am Oct 14, 2021 8:56am
BULLARD : "I THINK BY END OF TAPERING NEXT SPRING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL BE 3.5% OR BETTER"

Hello James, what are the odds the US have created structural unemployment with all the social protection measures deployed during the pandemic ? The same structural unemployment EZ has for decades (for the same reason). What are the odds Maximum employment in the US will never be the same ?

=====================================================================================

US PPI releases pointing to the same direction as yesterday numbers, peak behind, inflation cooling down ....

FA wise all backing the floor

TA wise, it's nothingness after clearing first target 1.161x, some hands just selling (prolly blindly) the SH resistance marked on D1 ........
  • #397
  • Oct 15, 2021 8:18am Oct 15, 2021 8:18am
Quoting Replicant
[...] US PPI releases pointing to the same direction as yesterday numbers, peak behind, inflation cooling down .... FA wise all backing the floor TA wise, it's nothingness after clearing first target 1.161x, some hands just selling (prolly blindly) the SH resistance marked on D1 ........
Another round of US numbers backing the floor in the pair.
=> All, absolutely all inflation data - direct and indirect - landing back on earth.

Interesting Business sentiment in NY state. Curious about full PMI figures next week. GDP forecast was already revised down as last Q FOMC. Curious about how these leading indicators could hint more slowdown to come.

Quoting Replicant
[...] TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x.=> Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry
Sticking to the plan . Not expecting to clear any target today. Supports 1.157x (D1) / 1.154x (H4).


EURUSD H4

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EURUSD D1

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  • #398
  • Oct 16, 2021 9:05am Oct 16, 2021 9:05am
Allo Christine ?

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D-12
  • #399
  • Oct 17, 2021 10:07am Oct 17, 2021 10:07am
Light Crude Oil Cheat sheet (or is it shit sheet ?)

Rise does not look over, I have +10% to +20% remaining on monthly chart, $91 to $103

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Replicant
[...] On the EZ side : {quote} Exchange rate adding fuel to energy prices in all EZ. ECB is now fully cornered in my view for next meeting.
...
  • #400
  • Oct 18, 2021 7:11am Oct 18, 2021 7:11am
Quoting Replicant
[...] Sticking to the plan . Not expecting to clear any target today. Supports 1.157x (D1) / 1.154x (H4). EURUSD H4 {image} EURUSD D1 {image}
1.157x, aka "D1 Bottom tentative", checked

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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=> Any D1 close above 1.161x would be very bullish now



H4 for the record :

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