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  • #401
  • Oct 18, 2021 8:05am Oct 18, 2021 8:05am
GBPJPY Monthly Cheat sheet (or is it shit sheet ?)

(@steamroller I owed you one)

Taking 156.6x on Monthly unlocks 160.0x to 164.0x

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  • #402
  • Oct 18, 2021 8:45am Oct 18, 2021 8:45am
EURJPY Monthly Cheat sheet (or is it shit sheet ?)


==> 134.1x ==> 136.5x ==> 141/142 via upcoming ECB tightening


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  • #403
  • Oct 18, 2021 11:40am Oct 18, 2021 11:40am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.157x, aka "D1 Bottom tentative", checked {image} => Any D1 close above 1.161x would be very bullish now H4 for the record : {image}
EURUSD trading now imminent break up area, important close coming to unlock second target

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  • #404
  • Oct 19, 2021 5:09am Oct 19, 2021 5:09am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD trading now imminent break up area, important close coming to unlock second target {image}
And it breaks...
  • #405
  • Oct 19, 2021 7:22am Oct 19, 2021 7:22am
Last break down point on D1, 1.166x, capping the flow so far

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On H4, last break up has shifted the range from [1.154x ; 1.160x] to [1.158x ; 1.172x]

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Quoting Replicant
TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry
second target observable in the range now
  • #406
  • Oct 20, 2021 8:03am Oct 20, 2021 8:03am
EURUSD H4 Cheat sheet flawless so far on the inner flows

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Quoting Replicant
Last break down point on D1, 1.166x, capping the flow so far {image} On H4, last break up has shifted the range from [1.154x ; 1.160x] to [1.158x ; 1.172x] {image} {quote} second target observable in the range now

On D1, bears who sold the break down point look exposed now, following US premarket flows

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Quoting Replicant
Allo Christine ? {image} D-12
final releases checked
D-8
  • #407
  • Oct 21, 2021 1:28pm Oct 21, 2021 1:28pm
Breaking : French gvt to deliver "inflation checks" to 50% of french people to offset skyrocketing inflation !!!

(first time in history)

=> Might look like random news but that's not. Another big hint of the heavy heavy pressure ECB will have to deal with at nxt meeting (D-7)

BIG REMINDER where we are on the monetary side in EZ :

Insane picture literally


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  • #408
  • Oct 23, 2021 7:44am Oct 23, 2021 7:44am
EURUSD Quick wrap up

===============================================================

Quoting Replicant
EURUSD H4 Cheat sheet flawless so far on the inner flows {image} {quote} On D1, bears who sold the break down point look exposed now, following US premarket flows {image} {quote} final releases checked D-8
Last break up point still holding on H4

EURUSD H4

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===============================================================

Quoting Replicant
Last break down point on D1, 1.166x, capping the flow so far {image} On H4, last break up has shifted the range from [1.154x ; 1.160x] to [1.158x ; 1.172x] {image} {quote} second target observable in the range now
Last break down point still holding on D1

EURUSD D1

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===============================================================

Quoting Replicant
[...] TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry [...]
Still holding longs
In hindsight, needless to say that the clean TP2 was 1.166x rather than this 1.168x

===============================================================

EURUSD W1

Swing low broken up, a first step.
99 ones remaining to build a floor in this TF (a break up of 1.191x is needed)

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===============================================================

Next week all about ECB.

Last September Press Conference mentionned tapering discussions to take place in October.
Previous post shows how unsustainable monetary situation is for the MT/LT.
CL is a politician, not a technician.
Good to offset the rigidity of the treaties without rewriting them (they are not pro growth/employment like FED).
Problem : tightening too late can kill the growth as much as tightening too early, if not more, via hitting consumers.

In any case, TA wise, next ECB map and flows look simple :

 

  1. Hawkish ECB, hinting tapering cycle coming, or super hawkish, already unveiling tapering agenda, is direct flow to break up 1.175x and to confirm the floor on D1 (still a tentative in this TF so far as D1 chart shows). Then retrace via FOMC officially starting their 6 months tapering agenda before a HH leg to 1.191x.
  2. Dovish/Unchanged ECB, sticking to temporary inflation mantra (but taking a big risk to me), is direct flow to 1.158x & 1.154x before next FOMC one week later officially starts their 6 months tapering and wiped out the floor to 1.149x, 1.136x max 1.128x.

  • #409
  • Edited 8:37am Oct 28, 2021 8:17am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting Replicant
[...] Next week all about ECB. Last September Press Conference mentionned tapering discussions to take place in October. Previous post shows how unsustainable monetary situation is for the MT/LT. CL is a politician, not a technician. Good to offset the rigidity of the treaties without rewriting them (they are not pro growth/employment like FED). Problem : tightening too late can kill the growth as much as tightening too early, if not more, via hitting consumers. In any case, TA wise, next ECB map and flows look simple...
=> ECB reducing again pace of PEPP
=> clear call PEPP will end in march, total enveloppe may not be fully used
=> High inflation to stay longer than previously expected
=> Even higher Inflation coming

==> Beyond CL's careful semantics (once again, recalibrating vs tapering), hawkish ECB to me

===============================================================


Quoting Replicant
[...]TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry [...]
sticking to longs

===============================================================


TA wise

EURUSD H4 Cheat sheet

Quoting Replicant
EURUSD H4 Cheat sheet flawless so far on the inner flows {image} {quote} On D1, bears who sold the break down point look exposed now, following US premarket flows {image} {quote} final releases checked D-8
flawless again on the inner flows ; H4 Bottom super clean call

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===============================================================

EURUSD D1 Cheat sheet

fate of bears sitting at the break down point is the rain maker for the next swing

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  • #410
  • Oct 28, 2021 9:17am Oct 28, 2021 9:17am
Quoting Replicant
[...]EURUSD D1 Cheat sheet fate of bears sitting at the break down point is the rain maker for the next swing {image}
=> Bears losing the break down point live.

Quoting Replicant
[...] In any case, TA wise, next ECB map and flows look simple : Hawkish ECB, hinting tapering cycle coming, or super hawkish, already unveiling tapering agenda, is direct flow to break up 1.175x and to confirm the floor on D1 (still a tentative in this TF so far as D1 chart shows) [...]

1.172x now naked but the real deal as said above is the break or not of the fractal 1.176x

Quoting Replicant
[...] Beyond CL's careful semantics (once again, recalibrating vs tapering), hawkish ECB to me [...]
ECB multiple recalibrations = an unsaid tapering cycle
  • #411
  • Oct 28, 2021 9:21am Oct 28, 2021 9:21am
Quoting Replicant
[...] TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry [...]
second target 1.168x hit in EURUSD, +140 pips

max drawdown = 0 pip
  • #412
  • Oct 29, 2021 2:27am Oct 29, 2021 2:27am
These are good charts Replicant. Can see you take a lot of thought and time in them.

Nice work..
  • #413
  • Oct 29, 2021 2:31am Oct 29, 2021 2:31am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} => Bears losing the break down point live. {quote} 1.172x now naked but the real deal as said above is the break or not of the fractal 1.176x {quote} ECB multiple recalibrations = an unsaid tapering cycle
My EU happy trading...
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  • #414
  • Oct 29, 2021 2:34am Oct 29, 2021 2:34am
The more I look through your thread the more I like what you post. Seem to watch a very similar process to my trading. I only have 30% in Currencies nowadays but have subscribed to your thread. I like your thought process.

Top shelf.
  • #415
  • Oct 29, 2021 3:21am Oct 29, 2021 3:21am
UCNH coming close to an important value area. But strong carry against the trade.

Replicant let me know if you prefer to just have your own charts here.....
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  • #416
  • Oct 29, 2021 9:39am Oct 29, 2021 9:39am
Next week, all about FED.

Quoting Replicant
[...] overall, projections dovish via GDP & jobs, hawkish via inflation[...]
=> At last Q FOMC, FED projections were dovish on GDP & Employment and hawkish on inflation.

=> tapering agenda was unveiled : starting in November or December, and ending in spring

===============================================================

Since then :


Quoting Replicant
[...] last friday, another big flob in Jobs report, twice in a row, "employment = the soft side of US recovery" checked again. Remember FED runs a dual mandate. [...]
=> Employment kept disappointing, NFP flop again

FED unemployment rate projection for 2021 was revised up to 4.8% at last Q meeting. Despite last release is inline with this projection, high chances the big miss in NFP for the second time in a row is going to weigh.

===============================================================

=> Last GDP release disappoints again: 2 % annualized for last Q.

FED projection for 2021 was already revised down to 5.9% at last Q meeting. It's aligning to dive below 5% now.

===============================================================

Regarding Inflation :

Quoting Replicant
[...]today, inflation numbers have confirmed peak is behind and keep cooling down [...]
Quoting Replicant
[...] US PPI releases pointing to the same direction as yesterday numbers, peak behind, inflation cooling down .... FA wise all backing the floor [...]
=> Today's Core PCE (aka FED preferred measure of inflation) has followed last CPI & PPI releases : US Inflation peak is clearly behind now, numbers keep cooling.

For reference, annualized Core PCE of Q3 is 3.2%. Of course, all yoy prints will remain high for a while because of last summer numbers.

In any case, EZ inflation's slope is well above US one now.

===============================================================

==> Overall, expecting unchanged FED on tapering agenda but cold showering any expectations for further tightening in the forseeable future.
  • #417
  • Oct 29, 2021 9:59am Oct 29, 2021 9:59am
Quoting Replicant
[...]TA wise : Watch out : EURUSD is trying right now on US open to build a floor at 1.154x. => Pair needs to break up 1.159x to confirm the floor. - Bold/balls trade : buy here 1.154x for 1.161x, 1.168x, 1.175x - If cautious: just wait for the break of 1.159x to aim the same targets ; drawback = poor r:r as it would be a momentum/expensive entry [...]
For the ongoing trade in EURUSD :

H4 Bottom just wiped out =>remaining longs cleared @ 1.157x, +30 pips

Max drawup = +150 pips
Max drawdown = 0 pip

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  • #418
  • Oct 29, 2021 10:12am Oct 29, 2021 10:12am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} For the ongoing trade in EURUSD : H4 Bottom just wiped out =>remaining longs cleared @ 1.157x, +30 pips Max drawup = +150 pips Max drawdown = 0 pip {image}
UK clowns / Brexit noise by the look of it

I will not be surprised if price reintegrates 1.16 handle by eod
  • #419
  • Oct 29, 2021 12:08pm Oct 29, 2021 12:08pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} UK clowns / Brexit noise by the look of it I will not be surprised if price reintegrates 1.16 handle by eod
Looks dead. Sitting at very last support 1.154x now.

A dozen more pips and price will have browsed the whole month range in a day.

if Brexit circus remains (small chance to get off with some scheduled talks off G20 this week-end), it will be a nightmare to trade the pair because of the inevitable random statements that will flood the wires at any time.

In any case, TA wise :

Resistances : 1.157x, 1.161x, 1.164x
Supports : 1.154x, 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x

H4 has already reversed, D1 will with a close below 1.157x
  • #420
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:55am Oct 30, 2021 8:55am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Looks dead. Sitting at very last support 1.154x now. A dozen more pips and price will have browsed the whole month range in a day. if Brexit circus remains (small chance to get off with some scheduled talks off G20 this week-end), it will be a nightmare to trade the pair because of the inevitable random statements that will flood the wires at any time. In any case, TA wise : Resistances : 1.157x, 1.161x, 1.164x Supports : 1.154x, 1.149x, 1.146x, 1.137x, 1.128x H4 has already reversed, D1 will with a close below 1.157x...

EURUSD couldn't hold 1.157x for the close

==> D1 & H4 are aligned now.

Regarding W1, it has closed right in SL support, hinting imminent break down in this TF.

==> All TFs are basically aligning for a flush.


It can't only be the brexit noise and the looming tariffs I was talking about yesterday, as price would have saved that 1.157x (as benefit of the doubt would have prevailed)

=> Markets are simply not buying current ECB's steps on the normalization path. I called it hawkish but markets simply didn't .

Hence, it's falling in case #2 :

Quoting Replicant
[...] Hawkish ECB, hinting tapering cycle coming, or super hawkish, already unveiling tapering agenda, is direct flow to break up 1.175x and to confirm the floor on D1 (still a tentative in this TF so far as D1 chart shows)[...] Dovish/Unchanged ECB, sticking to temporary inflation mantra (but taking a big risk to me), is direct flow to 1.158x & 1.154x before next FOMC one week later officially starts their 6 months tapering and wiped out the floor to 1.149x, 1.136x max 1.128x.

=> it was a zigzag flow but at the end they already checked 1.154x.

Still plenty of pips left to make to the short side but problem is the entry as the break down points in many TF sit very low, hence very expensive entries.

I have a pending Short 1.157x for 1.149x, 1.137x & 1.129x

Some might try higher 1.159x/1.160x but that's only a slight difference, MM wise.

===============================================================


TA wise, a lot of things have changed :


EURUSD H4

H4 has reversed

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===============================================================


EURUSD D1

D1 has triggered continuation down

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===============================================================


EURUSD W1

W1 has closed in imminent break down area

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