Fed preview: Dovish cut – September preview | Metals Mine

Fed preview: Dovish cut – September preview | Metals Mine

Fed preview: Dovish cut – September preview

From e-markets.nordea.com

We expect the Fed to cut its key policy rates by 25 bp at next week’s FOMC meeting – which would be the second consecutive rate cut in the current easing cycle – taking the Fed Funds corridor to 1.75-2.00% with an Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) rate of 1.85%. Two hawks will likely dissent...again. We expect the Fed to signal its intention to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”, which we take to mean that more rate cuts are likely if and only if the outlook worsens. The outlook has worsened, though – perhaps enough for the new dot plot to show a third rate cut later this year. Market ... (full story)

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Sep 14, 2019 8:04am

Quoting AnniLi

Disliked

{image} Indirectly Trump is asking (?) the FED to consider whether deflation is a much bigger problem than currently accepted especially when outside USA the expectation is being taken very seriously, including by other major central banks. The attachment shows the arithmetic which drives bond prices. The excitement is when r, the interest rate, moves towards zero and below zero, you get a nice big kicker to the value/price of your current bond holding. In common sense terms Cash in the future is now worth more (not less as is 'usual' with inflation)....

Ignored

Wouldn't the present value be bigger with lower rates? https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presentvalue.asp

Thumbs up for bringing some formulas into discussion... I just love how there is disconnect between GDP formula (https://corporatefinanceinstitute.co...s/gdp-formula/) and increasing the debt... not to mention messing with return rates in the bigger picture... They would still have to IMPORT! In fact, they have deficit.. Yeah, might help to bring down the DEBT they have... Would certainly hurt the capital flows and all (specially in the future).. In summary... QUICK FIX (aka instant gratification), high.. for longterterm withdrawal... But I take it the current focus is the 2020 (year of...)...

Politicans are abusing this GDP formula that is not completely representative, specially longterterm... and claiming they were responsible for RAISE... at the expense of... with the help of debt... Greece anyone?
"Glory" till the end

TBH... why do you expect someone to take the hit/impeach before the short term is over... in order to give credit/glory to the next guy... that might do the same... and claim credits... Not seem so in the current state of things...

1

Sep 14, 2019 8:52am

Quoting Not-KPMG

Disliked

And a verified opinion how bitcoin WILL GO from today's 10300 to even 100000 green t.p. oh Trumpy is common liar but occasionally truth can spurt out good advertising. as i said 75-85-95k part TP https://bitcoinist.com/donald-trump-...es-usd-100000/ Now tell me, is Trumpy long bitcoin??? Ooops he didn't tell ya

Ignored

unlike you, I think the central banks of the whole world in general won't allow that the price of bitcoin increase more than a certain limit. because in this event, bitcoin can be a strong substitution for official currencies and if it comes to true, the central banks will no more have former strength to intervene for proceeding their aims.

1

Sep 13, 2019 12:53pm

Quoting Rakeem

Disliked

{quote} ...to cut?

Ignored

No, there won't be any rate cut, that was why I said I would buy usd,

1

Sep 13, 2019 5:18pm

Quoting Ghass1234

Disliked

{quote} i will sell now GBP , as for sure no deal will happen and the extension is priced with that

Ignored

Man it went additional 30 pips up since you said that. I hope you have a good trading plan. And by the way I would also sell GBPUSD. The fundamental outlook isn’t good for GBP. The picture is kind of similar for EUR, but EUR might soon find a support and bounce back.

Sep 13, 2019 8:06pm

This "rate cut" tennis... I mean if they are so sure this will make magic... why not drop it till the limit..
like to -10%... All could benefit, supposedly... Economies would skyrocket... People would spend as mofos... Can you imagine shoe industry rising from this?

Business would employ/invest/spend as mofo...
AND poor people (the smart ones that wouldn't burn the money)... would get FREE money... get 100k LOAN.. be obligated to return only about 90k.. 10k free.. Similar to subprime mortgages.. when cats and dogs could get a mortgage.. and resale later, still within a bubble...

Ok to a more serious... ECB is happy FED made a first move, in this timeframe.. so it could follow... We would have to pay for DEPOSITS in EU... the ones that do not already (above certain threshold)... And FED will now follow? Well, from trading perspective.. as long as both follow, it might be rather stable.. but endgame consequences might not be good.. The "good" thing is that we can trade those also... Tnx god for buy/short possibilities in the markets, so we are not tied to good times only... And also, why would politicians care outside of their term? Morality seems to be the last line of defence, hope it holds... And yeas, the Joker (movie) is coming, it sure fits the sequence of events...

Sep 14, 2019 6:31am

The next toilet paper QE (thieving money) coming.

👏👏👏😱😱

Converted most my liquid assets to crypto 😱🐢

Why???

Trumpy connman :
Change his diaper, i mean Opinion every 3 day.😱😱👎👎👎

Bitcoin :
Same rules applied 11 years straight 👏👏👍👍

Trumpy:
Soon to go in jail (several states ready for him)

Bitcoin :
245 days until halving. 👏👏👏

What to chose..... 😂😂😂😱😱😱

Sep 14, 2019 6:35am

And a verified opinion how bitcoin WILL GO from today's 10300 to even 100000 green t.p.

oh Trumpy is common liar but occasionally truth can spurt out 😱😱😱

good advertising. 👏👏👏
as i said 75-85-95k part TP
https://bitcoinist.com/donald-trump-will-ban-bitcoin-when-price-reaches-usd-100000/

Now tell me, is Trumpy long bitcoin???

😉😉😉😉😉😱👍👍👍

Ooops he didn't tell ya 😱😱😱🚀

Sep 14, 2019 9:17am

Quoting sadeghi

Disliked

{quote} unlike you, I think the central banks of the whole world in general won't allow that the price of bitcoin increase more than a certain limit. because in this event, bitcoin can be a strong substitution for official currencies and if it comes to true, the central banks will no more have former strength to intervene for proceeding their aims.

Ignored

Interesting.

Banning bitcoin - yes, there's chance but SMALL.

But the same banning hype was said about INTERNET.
Remember?

Internet is baaaad, internet will end lies, Y2K problem...

Yet here we are, liars like facepalm have 2.5 billion users.....
Duhhhh.

So for the moment (until 200k) I'm holding

Sep 14, 2019 5:20am

Quoting Ghass1234

Disliked

{quote} man what the hack is happening with GBP , got up 80 pip up on new york market , incredible

Ignored

be careful, it's not for good fundamental but only is because of technical, don't forget this reality: euro economic position is very awful, they will inter into a deep concession if they don't have a deal with British and then have a new tension with USA over new tariffs, thus, they like British need a deal, it for now seems to me not trading with GBP pairs is the best policy.

Sep 13, 2019 12:24pm

no cut rate ....

Sep 13, 2019 2:28pm

Quoting sadeghi

Disliked

{quote} No, there won't be any rate cut, that was why I said I would buy usd,

Ignored

man what the hack is happening with GBP , got up 80 pip up on new york market , incredible

Sep 13, 2019 2:33pm

market maker make manipulation ...

Sep 14, 2019 6:30am

Cut it is.
Will it depress dollars?
Or EU dip?

Sep 13, 2019 10:51pm

cut cut cut, Trump and contract futures wants

Sep 13, 2019 12:09pm

Yay! News from "No-Idea.com"...

Sep 13, 2019 12:27pm

It's almost impossible because of the man i knew, he's the head of fed. It's a deep trap for sellers, I won't fall into it, I will buy USD with high volume next Wednesday.

Sep 13, 2019 9:49pm

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: BONDVALUATIONInterestPayment($)BONDVALUEParValue.jpg
Size: 37 KB

Indirectly Trump is asking (?) the FED to consider whether deflation is a much bigger problem than currently accepted especially when outside USA the expectation is being taken very seriously, including by other major central banks.

The attachment shows the arithmetic which drives bond prices. The excitement is when r, the interest rate, moves towards zero and below zero, you get a nice big kicker to the value/price of your current bond holding. In common sense terms Cash in the future is now worth more (not less as is 'usual' with inflation). With deflationary pressures building, bond holders can look forward to higher returns even on AAA Treasuries.

I'm very surprised this effect is not more openly remarked upon here so have included this topic here in case there is a general view that its an irrelevant theme to the FED.

Sep 13, 2019 2:38pm

Quoting hesron

Disliked

market maker make manipulation ...

Ignored

i will sell now GBP , as for sure no deal will happen and the extension is priced with that

Sep 13, 2019 12:11pm

This will be the last cut for the year, next dollar will bounce.

Sep 13, 2019 12:38pm

Quoting sadeghi

Disliked

It's almost impossible .....

Ignored

...to cut?

Sep 13, 2019 12:08pm

rate cut then gold down, i dont think so

Sep 13, 2019 11:58am

Gold is goin down?
Just for today i guess?

Sep 13, 2019 12:25pm

Gold will evetually go up till next meeting then lets see whats gonna happen..

Sep 13, 2019 12:39pm

Hmm Dow is goin down today...

Trader#D577

Sep 13, 2019 12:51pm

Quoting Don100

Disliked

Gold will evetually go up till next meeting then lets see whats gonna happen..

Ignored

I am sure we would all agree that it is usually an oversimplification to pin the course of an entire market on just a single factor in the times ahead. A billion things (bids and offers) could move Gold this or that way and even move it such that no currently held opinions play out. The markets after all are fundamentally unpredictable and indeed unpredicted by any device known to man (else we would not have such divergent opinions as we usually do about the future course of markets). But if we look at say the D1 time frame in Gold >>>---------->> it does seem like trending down to the 1440 handle. Since markets are not random and are NOT moved about by news or events, it is a pretty brave heart that would see Gold otherwise directed than is suggested now by its current D1 trajectory. My point is that Gold will go where it is going and will turn only when it does and this by turn would occur by nothing any trader can tell, now or ever. Better to find a means to follow the turns and forget about predictions. They do not work and never will. Simply because markets are chaotic systems.

Trader#D577

Sep 13, 2019 6:09pm

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

{quote} The picture is kind of similar for EUR, but EUR might soon find a support and bounce back.

Ignored

The euro has been in a downfalling spiral since 1.25554 (Alpari data). On the daily it has maintained a sequence of flows from lower highs to lower lows. It is currently mean reverting to circa 1.11594 to return to trend. So the bounce already happened if you evaluate the markets by fractal transformations. Indeed, selling at the said level might be a most profitable course for those wishing to enter the persistent spiral down to the estimated unitary objective of circa 1.076 or thereabouts. The entire unit (i.e. not just the fractures of MN to its left) is in a spiral down. Pretty stable long term direction across all intervals when that is the case.

Sep 17, 2019 6:17am

Following up. Yes, the bond price would move substantially higher.

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Sep 13, 2019 11:49am
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Linked events:

US Federal Funds Rate

US FOMC Economic Projections

US FOMC Statement

US FOMC Press Conference