FOMC Summary of Economic Projections | Metals Mine

  • FOMC Summary of Economic Projections

    From federalreserve.gov Story is in PDF Format

    In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 16–17, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic ... (full story)

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ntrpy
Sep 17, 2025 1:46pm
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FOMC Statement Summary
○ Fed cut rates by 25bps to range of 4.00 - 4.25%, as expected.
○ One dissent from Stephen Miran, voted for 50bps cut; major dovish surprise
○ Signals immediate split within committee towards more aggressive easing.
○ Median dot for '25 fell to 3.625%, confirming base case of three total cuts for this year.
○ Statement language dovish; removed word "solid" to describe labour market, replaced w/ "Job gains have slowed."
○ Crucially, added phrase "downside risks to employment have risen."

1. Statement & Miran Dissent
○ Shift from "solid" job growth to "job gains have slowed" and explicit mention that "downside risks to employment have risen" is Fed validating core thesis.
○ Clear signal that reaction function has pivoted to prioritise employment mandate.
○ Miran dissent, already in favour of larger cuts, is powerful signal & key surprise.
○ Dovish wing of the committee already becoming impatient.
○ Immediately shifts market's perception of Fed's "centre".
○ If 50bps cut is already on table, makes future cuts seem far more likely.
○ Negates "hawkish cut" narrative in S/T.

2. Dot Plot
○ '25 Median @ 3.625% aka dovish base case scenario. Confirms market's pricing for total of 75bps cuts this year.
○ Median dots for 2026 (3.4%) and 2027 (3.1%) also shifted lower, confirming lower for longer trajectory.
○ Median forecast for '25 unemployment rate held at 4.5%; not forecasting spike in unemployment despite weak jobs data last week.
○ Pre-emptive rate cuts for easing cycle, supportive for risk assets, protects employment rate L/T.

3. Balance Sheet
○ Implementation note shows no change to pace of QT.
○ Continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury and agency MBS at same pace.
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Ryder
Sep 17, 2025 2:23pm
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Quoting ntrpy
FOMC Statement Summary ○ Fed cut rates by 25bps to range of 4.00 - 4.25%, as expected. ○ One dissent from Stephen Miran, voted for 50bps cut; major dovish surprise ○ Signals immediate split within committee towards more aggressive easing. ○ Median dot for '25 fell to 3.625%, confirming base case of three total cuts for this year. ○ Statement language dovish; removed word "solid" to describe labour market, replaced w/ "Job gains have slowed." ○ Crucially, added phrase "downside risks to...
Great Summary. Thanks.
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NotAtrader
Sep 17, 2025 1:27pm
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Quoting Trader#620F
Let's not forget that stronger USD helped the Fed somewhat in their "fight" against inflation. I say "fight", because the Fed never raised rates enough to deal with inflation. Now, the USD is in a freefall. What do you think will happen next as the Fed continues to weaken the USD? Great job Powell! You're almost done with the USD.
Hey hey, have you ever heard about chronological order? Trump is #1 in the list to get credit for killing the power of the US Dollar. Don't forget him! He won't be happy about that. Anyways that will take only a "two weeks time"
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Trader#620F
Sep 17, 2025 1:13pm
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Let's not forget that stronger USD helped the Fed somewhat in their "fight" against inflation. I say "fight", because the Fed never raised rates enough to deal with inflation. Now, the USD is in a freefall. What do you think will happen next as the Fed continues to weaken the USD?

Great job Powell! You're almost done with the USD.
Reply
ffghost
Sep 17, 2025 1:07pm
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That dot plot for 2026 CAN'T be what the markets wanted to see....
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ffghost
Sep 17, 2025 1:08pm
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"MORE FOMC: DOT PLOT SHOWS ONE PARTICIPANT WANTED FIVE MORE RATE CUTS THIS YEAR, PRESUMED TO BE MIRAN; "

Haha - way to skew it Mr. 4 month appointee :-P
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pakhan
Sep 17, 2025 1:02pm
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sell leak
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Trader#D870
Sep 17, 2025 1:23pm
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Sometimes as a trader you have to look at the chaos and turn the other cheek. Nun you could have done to be safe from this unless you were holding from Monday
Reply
oxbuck
Sep 17, 2025 1:46pm
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Not going to help the real estate market at all.
Hamidzubair
Sep 18, 2025 12:33am
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sir, next month hard news to low news
Reply
Trader#0763
Sep 17, 2025 1:02pm
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that's right
Reply
Trader#A0A6
Sep 17, 2025 1:06pm
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dumpin hard
Reply
Trader#7A3F
Sep 17, 2025 1:07pm
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450 pips down
Reply
Trader#727E
Sep 17, 2025 1:27pm
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the us ECONOMY does well with CURRENT rates , so further cuts (what's ever they are...) is good enough for us economy , stocks .....
Reply

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