US Personal Income m/m
Income is correlated with spending - the more disposable income consumers have, the more likely they are to increase spending;
- US Personal Income m/m Graph
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
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Sep 27, 2024 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Aug 30, 2024 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Jul 26, 2024 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Jun 28, 2024 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
May 31, 2024 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Apr 26, 2024 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Mar 29, 2024 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
Feb 29, 2024 | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
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- US Personal Income m/m News
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation and household spending rose modestly in August, underscoring a cooling economy. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased 0.1% from July, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. On a three-month annualized basis, the measure rose 2.1%, in line with the central bank’s target. Spending also rose 0.1% after adjusting for inflation. Nominal personal income increased 0.2% and ...
The main focus in the August personal income and spending report is the core PCE deflator, which the Federal Reserve tends to favour as the gauge to watch for underlying price pressures in the US economy. The 0.1% month-on-month outcome is better than the consensus forecast of 0.2% and when measured to 2 decimal places it is 0.13%, below the 0.17% MoM threshold (black line in the chart below) that if repeated over 12 months would generate the targeted 2% year-on-year inflation. The YoY rate ticked up to 2.7%, but it should drop back ...
Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $34.2 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion (0.2 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in ...
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be the final major central bank to announce its policy decision in September. Like the Fed, there is a substantial degree of uncertainty around the size of the cut. Investors have priced in around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction, with the remaining odds being for a 50-bps move. Expectations for a larger cut have gained ground since the beginning of August when the Swiss franc spiked higher against the US dollar and euro. SNB chief Thomas Jordan, who will chair his last meeting ...
The Fed's favoured inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, has come in at 0.2% month-on-month, as expected, but the year-on-year remains at 2.6% rather than rise to 2.7% as the consensus predicted. To three decimal places it was 0.161% MoM so a very "good" 0.2% that keeps us on the correct run-rate to get annual inflation to 2% by early next year. A 0.17% MoM each month for twelve months would get us to the 2% YoY target and we have now had three consecutive prints that are below that with the 3M annualised rate now below 2%. ...
Personal income increased $75.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $54.8 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.8 billion (0.5 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in July ...
Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.2 percent; goods increased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 3 and 4). table The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts (table 2). The $57.6 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in June reflected an increase of $53.1 billion in spending for services and an increase of $4.5 billion in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were other services (led by international travel) and housing and utilities (led by housing). Within goods, the largest contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical and other medical products) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by information processing equipment). These increases were partly offset by decreases in motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles) and gasoline and other energy goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U. post: 3-month annualized core PCE inflation was 2.3% in June, the lowest since December The 6-month annualized rate was 3.4%, the highest in a year (but still below the 4.0% rate of one year earlier)PCE inflation slips to 2.5% in June - BEA Overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June, adding to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. Economists had expected the figure to climb to 2.5%. Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year "core" gauge, widely known as the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, unchanged from the May figure. It was seen slowing to 2.5%. Month-on-month, the headline figures came in at 0.1%, while the "core" monthly release rose 0.2%, both as expected. While U.S. gross domestic product data, released earlier this week, showed healthy growth in the second quarter of the year, the widely-watched consumer price index fell in June for the first time in four years. That cooler-than-expected report set off a rotation in equities and cemented market expectations that the Fed is primed to cut rates inOverall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June, adding to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September The broadly weak trend of US macro data was jolted yesterday by a hotter than expected GDP print - which prompted a hawkish shift in rate-cut expectations. This morning, the doves get another chance for some 'bad news' (disinflation) to support their 'we must cut' narrative (that Dudley et al. have exposed). The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - instead came in slightly hotter than expected, rising 2.6% YoY (vs +2.5% YoY exp). The headline PCE dipped to +2.5%... chart Under the hood, durable goods deflation continues to drag Core PCE lower while Services costs continue to rise... chart Even more notably, the so-called SuperCore PCE rose 0.2% MoM, which saw YoY rise to 3.43%... which is awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels...
There were few surprises in yesterday’s release of the May data on Personal Consumption Expenditure price index by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Publication of the Consumer Price and Producer Price Indexes earlier in June had already suggested that the PCE numbers would be benign because of the components of the CPI and PPI that feed into it. PCE prices were flat in May from April, slowing from the 0.3% rise posted the previous month. The year-over-year gain slowed from 2.7% in April to 2.6% in May. Yet, we had a senior Federal ...
Released on Sep 27, 2024 |
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