US Advance GDP q/q

Ok that title won’t win any prizes, but it gets across the point. The US economy grew strongly while generating light, but slightly stronger than expected inflation as ADP payrolls ripped higher and a leading indicator of existing home sales jumped higher. Key is the strength of the consumer. Bonds didn’t like that so much at first, with the 2-year yield rising by about 5bps post-releases before moderating this response as the UK budget’s effect on gilts with some spillover effects arrived, and the US launched missile strikes on ISIS ...

Gold futures breach $2,800 but pull back on mixed ADP and GDP data. Phillip Streible explains.

The US economy continued growing at strong pace in Q3, with GDP growth coming in at 2.8% q/q annualized, very close to consensus expectations of 2.9% and a couple of ticks below last quarter’s 3.0% increase. The pickup in growth was driven by consumption again, which came in at scorching 3.7% (+2.5pp contribution) compared to expectations of 3.3% and the government component at 5.0% (+0.9pp). Business investment growth slowed a bit at 3.3% (+0.5pp) compared to the 4% average over the past three quarters because of softness in ...

The US economy grew at a 2.8% annualised rate in the third quarter, a touch below the 2.9% consensus and the 3% rate recorded in the second quarter, but still a very strong outcome. Consumer spending was very robust, as expected based on monthly retail sales data, growing 3.7% and within that spending on goods grew 6%. Non-residential fixed investment was firm, rising 3.3%, led by an 11.1% increase in equipment investment, but residential investment fell 5.1% as high mortgage rates and a general lack of affordability weighed on the ...

Welcome to what is without doubt the busiest two-week stretch of the year, starting with a barrage of earnings, payrolls, JOLTS, GDP, PCE and the Treasury refunding, and concluding with next week's presidential election. But first a look at the recent action, which as DB's Peter Sidorov wraps up, saw the festive mood that dominated this fall suffer a mini-scare last week, as the S&P 500 fell for the first time in six weeks while the bond sell-off continued apace. And there’ll be plenty to test the market nerves with this week's ...

Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%. chart Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (red triangles), St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10/9 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels ...

KC Fed survey joined yesterday's Regional Fed surveys in the doldrums (as did today's plunge in durable goods orders) but of course, all eyes were sternly focused on Q2 GDP's beat. That 'good news' sparked a hawkish shift lower in rate-cut expectations... chart The Nasdaq lagged..again.. with Small Caps ripping higher. The S&P ended red again with The Dow clinging to gains... Nasdaq has underperformed Russell 2000 for 11 of the last 12 days, erasing YTD outperformance for the big-tech index. chart This is the biggest relative ...