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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #34,381
  • Jul 10, 2015 9:58am Jul 10, 2015 9:58am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} And 5 and 6 years ago people thought the same thing (and were right) ... and then as you say some thought higher still 4 years ago and it no they were wrong, wrong, wrong. But of course there were also some who tried calling that eventual top a year or two early and got burned. I try calling tops and bottoms but like to wait for confirmation - it actually has happened.
For me, the metals are in a consolidation phase I have no interest in participating in -- I'll leave that to scalpers. Increasing trade volume within a narrowing range shows there are as many buyers as sellers among the major players and I'll let them sort out before I get involved. I'll wait for a good bottom/reaction signal before buying any more metal as there's easier money to be made among crop and related futures right now.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #34,382
  • Jul 13, 2015 5:36am Jul 13, 2015 5:36am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Production costs are notoriously wrong in the media. Although I also doubt that they are down in the low $100's.
Do you have any number on what production cost might be, with some link to a document? I have to say that i'm biased to those articles in the absence of any other info.
  • #34,383
  • Edited 6:05pm Jul 13, 2015 5:51pm | Edited 6:05pm
I am looking for this wedge to break up after false break down..
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Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #34,384
  • Edited 1:08pm Jul 16, 2015 12:19pm | Edited 1:08pm
As wave patterns only become clearer towards their completion, got up this morning and realized the the whole corrective pattern wave (b) of correcton (4), that started from 28 Aug 2013 top, is coming to an end ......... soon.
Tracking this ending diagonal of minor (v) wave down to the bottom, will see a 5 waves EW impulse projection (or ED) wave (c), taking at least the 28 Aug 2013 top, towards 0.6182 x (3) target.
Also, remember the gap??
IMHO.
Good trading!
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #34,385
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:22pm Jul 16, 2015 2:22pm
What gap? I see the tl's but what do they represent?

BTW I've got a different count but don't have the time to post a chart ATM.
  • #34,386
  • Jul 17, 2015 1:00am Jul 17, 2015 1:00am
Stuck with longs at 1150 , 1148 and 1145 ... Wondering really when will Gold bounce back, this down trend has been going on for ages!
But gold never dissapoints me, it always come back...
Could this Friday be a turn around? Many USD news also coming today ...
  • #34,387
  • Jul 17, 2015 3:50am Jul 17, 2015 3:50am
Quoting ash1485
Stuck with longs at 1150 , 1148 and 1145 ... Wondering really when will Gold bounce back, this down trend has been going on for ages! But gold never dissapoints me, it always come back... Could this Friday be a turn around? Many USD news also coming today ...
Hedge ur positions till u get bullish signals after the weekend
  • #34,388
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:34am Jul 17, 2015 4:34am
Quoting Mroue26
{quote} Hedge ur positions till u get bullish signals after the weekend
Closed with loss, will buy again at 1131
  • #34,389
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:36am Jul 17, 2015 4:36am
Quoting ash1485
{quote} Closed with loss, will buy again at 1131
Never close a losing trade!!! Use hedging techniques to breakeven at the worst cases
  • #34,390
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:55am Jul 17, 2015 6:55am
Quoting Mroue26
{quote} Never close a losing trade!!! Use hedging techniques to breakeven at the worst cases
Cutting losses is the single most important rule for successful trading. Adding to losing trades hoping to break even only "works" in paper trading when you have infinite pretend money to throw away.

That last time I heard of someone trying this in practice was a poster here who had his live account linked (not sure if Forex Factory still has that feature) in 2013 who had 19 open positions trying to recover his losses. SunTrader might remember him -- his posts were getting quite desperate towards the end.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #34,391
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:27am Jul 17, 2015 9:27am
$1,132...
  • #34,392
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:28am Jul 17, 2015 9:28am
Buying now ... I hope it's the end of this drop
  • #34,393
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:15am Jul 17, 2015 10:15am
This is called hoping - not trading.
  • #34,394
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:16am Jul 17, 2015 10:16am
Quoting KADC
{quote} Cutting losses is the single most important rule for successful trading. Adding to losing trades hoping to break even only "works" in paper trading when you have infinite pretend money to throw away. That last time I heard of someone trying this in practice was a poster here who had his live account linked (not sure if Forex Factory still has that feature) in 2013 who had 19 open positions trying to recover his losses. SunTrader might remember him -- his posts were getting quite desperate towards the end.
Agree with the sentiment 1000% but no don't remember the poster.
  • #34,395
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:23am Jul 17, 2015 10:23am
Quoting ash1485
Buying now ... I hope it's the end of this drop
The lack of a bullish reaction upon hitting the 100% retracement of the Nov 2014 low has me targeting the range between the 27.2% extension at $1,082 and the 27.2% extension of this years range which is $1,098. Short-term I think we'll see a bounce to at least the $1,145 area before the next drop lower which may be the next best chance for long-holders to cut their losses.

When the metals finally bottom we'll see a definite reaction, but I don't think that will happen before September which seasonal charts show as being the most likely time frame for the metals to rally.

Meanwhile, the physical price of precious metals is continuing to pull away from the paper price and seems unlikely to fall any lower at the retail level; the spread now greater than it was in 2009. Also, sliver is lagging gold's decline, setting the stage for a physical swap. The further these conditions extend, the greater the pressure will be for a reversal, but again, I'm looking at September before that happens.

At the moment I think there's easier money to be made buying the Pound against non-US pairs, but best of luck to all metal scalpers.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #34,396
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:51am Jul 17, 2015 10:51am
Wow, gold..just wow
  • #34,397
  • Jul 17, 2015 11:00am Jul 17, 2015 11:00am
What is wow about it? Just the bear trend continuing ... lower and lower.

Which will end about the time this topic has no more posts from "bottom pickers" buying.
  • #34,398
  • Jul 17, 2015 11:30am Jul 17, 2015 11:30am
Well I never thought it would go that low again, but what do you know
  • #34,399
  • Jul 17, 2015 2:48pm Jul 17, 2015 2:48pm
if it doesnt retrace from here the falling knife will continue till 1100..
i have a buy position at 1136.. usd is too strong its not moving
  • #34,400
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:08pm Jul 17, 2015 4:08pm
left 2 hedged positions till monday
1st: BUY on 1136 with SL 1133 + minimum trailing stop
2nd: SELL on 1134 with SL 1135 + minimum trailing stop
so the gap on monday either ways will make profits lets hope for a 100 pips gap! LOL
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