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  • #25,041
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:20am Apr 8, 2015 10:20am
the other day i got a bit of a talking to on here when i suggesting heding a losing short at 182 - i was down 1k at that stage - advice given was go learn more about trading and take the loss - well i didnt i hedged long, took some profit on way up, took a small loss too, but kept the bad short and now its 700 loss and possible down, but i come back in with long hedge if it reverses, leaving short as downward safety net if long doesnt work out

i am a newbie - no one recommended that, the only recommendation was take loss - does anyone else hedge - i agree its not the best strategy, much prefer one directional trend, but it can help save a loss and give you another swing at it it if reverses - worse problem is removing hedge then it continues but hey ho trying to save losses is better than taking them every time

id love a fall to 182 - id be out zero loss, ill hedge at 208 for long position and hold until it goes 250ish area, then hope short again
  • #25,042
  • Apr 8, 2015 11:56am Apr 8, 2015 11:56am
closed shorts and waiting to see if these metals have finished the sell off for the day. My chart analysis says we can go a lot lower, but for today I don't think there is much room.
  • #25,043
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:16pm Apr 8, 2015 12:16pm
Oddly enough XAUUSD didn't move as much as EUR pairs for me today...let's see how it does after FOMC.
Less is more...
  • #25,044
  • Edited 12:38pm Apr 8, 2015 12:19pm | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting angsara1995
Skyzer you're rocks, i am big fan of you. thanks for sharing these great guidelines.
Thank you..

Just placed

Buy Limit 1201.85.. If Not triggered in the NEXT 20 min, will take LONG higher then.

Target (TP) 1213.40 (could be overnight including LONDON)

Stop loss?

My guess $5 will be enough.


P.S

Slowly moving Buy limit UP, need to Get in LONG position now: 102.87

OK, didn't get it, due to the Spread.. took LONG higher.. 1203.90... Let's see now..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LongFomc.jpg Size: 64 KB
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  • #25,045
  • Edited 12:57pm Apr 8, 2015 12:44pm | Edited 12:57pm
great prediction on gold syker - i missed the 1200 point to long, then put long order at 1205 tht just got activated - now hedged both sides with gap 23, i was so focused on oil which had loads of movment i missed 5 points on gold, but im no losses so far, same on oil, was down 9k on oil yesterday, hedged it and im still down 9k but i gained 5k profit, and my positions are equal hedge unrealised losses

im totally over trading for a small account - soon as i sort myself out im downsizing my trades - always hedging my positions if i can,

but if i didnt hedge everything yesterday i was facing 10k loss - today i could close out 5k loss, half, but i will still try trade that out --

im driving myself mad with my own stupidity but patting myself on the back that i had courage to hedge and trade out

cant wait until i get a grip and just trend follow with no hedge needed - will be like a holiday compared to cross over positions
  • #25,046
  • Apr 8, 2015 12:53pm Apr 8, 2015 12:53pm
I am on sidelines, though I am biased towards shorts with a move to 1188.

Probably a good idea to hedge. FOMC minutes may not bring anything new to the fore, market could continue ranging. NFP for May and June will be huge however.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #25,047
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:15pm Apr 8, 2015 1:15pm
LOSS (heck not yet, I still doesn't set the SL yet )).. Maniacs still jawboning about rate hike.. Just another excuse to knock down GOLD..

No problem. now waiting till dust settles, could be just a wrong reaction.
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  • #25,048
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:20pm Apr 8, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting anton.olff
NFP for May and June will be huge however.
Exactly that's why we going to make tons of money just buy Selling GOLD 2 days Prior the NFP Numbers


P.S

GOLD comeback over 1200... Let see..

K, more likely will go down now, will Sell LONDON again, Friday ahead.. Cannot bet the FED,

it's like pissing against the Wind, when you long GOLD.
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  • #25,049
  • Apr 8, 2015 1:31pm Apr 8, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
{quote} Exactly that's why we going to make tons of money just buy Selling GOLD 2 days Prior the NFP Numbers P.S GOLD comeback over 1200... Let see.. K, more likely will go down now, will Sell LONDON again, Friday ahead.. Cannot bet the FED, it's like pissing against the Wind, when you long GOLD.
I am hedged from 1200. I think we'll see range up to 1240 and down to 1165
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #25,050
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:28pm Apr 8, 2015 2:28pm
Pivot : 1207
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i am iranian Trader
  • #25,051
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:09pm Apr 8, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting Waitnsee
great prediction on gold syker - i missed the 1200 point to long, then put long order at 1205 tht just got activated - now hedged both sides with gap 23, i was so focused on oil which had loads of movment i missed 5 points on gold, but im no losses so far, same on oil, was down 9k on oil yesterday, hedged it and im still down 9k but i gained 5k profit, and my positions are equal hedge unrealised losses im totally over trading for a small account - soon as i sort myself out im downsizing my trades - always hedging my positions if i can, but if i...
Well I think hedging is good thing if done properly but for me hedging is as good as not trading at all or even worse because of the emotional stress involved. Just my opinion anyway...it's like trying to go in two directions at the same time, you just have to eventually commit to one because soon enough you would have to ask yourself, 'What if price refuses to reverse back towards the direction you hedged against?' not to talk of the swap cost you incur for days or even weeks! It seems best to eventually commit in one direction and learn to take losses as long as you follow your trading plan.
Less is more...
  • #25,052
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:12pm Apr 8, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting dailyew
Pivot : 1207 {image}
All I can say, that's FRIDAY mainly been bearish for Metals 7 times out of 10..

That's cause when COMEX takes charge at 8:20 AM all other Markets are closed or closing by then and its

much easier manage/manipulate the price in low volume environment.. You are welcome to scroll

2 years back and check every Friday US COMEX session, not even mention FOMC weeks...
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  • #25,053
  • Edited 4:51pm Apr 8, 2015 3:26pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting ajantala
{quote} Well I think hedging is good thing if done properly but for me hedging is as good as not trading at all or even worse because of the emotional stress involved. Just my opinion anyway..
You are exactly right, the problem is, when hedging it's all turning into selling low and buying high.. It's like LONG for example at 1200

then price drop to 1180 and you SELL (Locked $20 LOSS) then price went back up again and what you have in that case? Well you panicked and buy

at 1190, but price dropped again to 1170 and you sell again? Common this will get into freaking mess. Trust me you will at that point just CLOSE everything

and run.

You know who is REALLY HEDGE and WHY? Jewelers And GOLD Coin Sellers! Because they don't want to get involved in price volatility..

All they Care about is SPREAD Or ( in case of Jewelers ) get Paid (Margin) for their Jewels job. They only making money between BID and ASK.. So Every time

they Get Physical GOLD they SELL exact amount of

GOLD futures (HEDGE). Means they SIMPLY Locking the price.. SO??? Main reason for Hedging is not to get exposed into the price swings..

For trader Hedging makes ZERO sense. IMHO.

Basically if you are LONG TERM Physical GOLD buyer, probably it makes sense to Buy Real GOLD while shorting Paper GOLD during downtrend,

cash out proceeds and add more physical, that would be brilliant approach. Basically turning Paper BS into real thing.
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  • #25,054
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:37pm Apr 8, 2015 3:37pm
hedging is not optimmum trading for sure - it is a head ache but has a place

eg i shorted at 182 few days back last week, price ran up when i wasnt looking [my mistake] i could of taken a 1k loss, but i went long on a hedge, let that go up took some profit, looked for price to return down, today it went as low as 197, then i put my second hedge in at 1205, long, if prices falls down to 182 and long isnt activated, im zero loss with gain, as it happens i am activated, so i will wait for big move one direction, close and start process over

its not as simple as locking in loss or profit, it can give you a second bite and avoid loss, as it happens ive no real loss on gold currently

but id prefer clean trend channel trading - but i am new i use hedge as a defence against my stupidity until im a better trader
  • #25,055
  • Apr 8, 2015 5:11pm Apr 8, 2015 5:11pm
On and on and on Skyzer goes, this board has turned into his personal rant about gold, getting old already. Take your miners losses and move on, start shorting gold like everyone else and start making money...

This Skyzer is like a parrot
  • #25,056
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:35pm Apr 8, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Nice one I closed early, was on the road, never mind.. made me +60 pips too E/U supposed to retrace some till fomc, and gold/$ may visit ema200 in H1.. lets see {image}
fibo says bounce to 1210 (50%) or 1213 (61.8%)
edit: but i'm not taking this trade
  • #25,057
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:58pm Apr 8, 2015 6:58pm
Quoting Mitchoss
closed shorts and waiting to see if these metals have finished the sell off for the day. My chart analysis says we can go a lot lower, but for today I don't think there is much room.
Mitchoss nice to see you
  • #25,058
  • Apr 8, 2015 7:17pm Apr 8, 2015 7:17pm
Short safe from here????

i'm on the fence.
  • #25,059
  • Apr 8, 2015 8:06pm Apr 8, 2015 8:06pm
Quoting Waitnsee
hedging is not optimmum trading for sure - it is a head ache but has a place eg i shorted at 182 few days back last week, price ran up when i wasnt looking [my mistake] i could of taken a 1k loss, but i went long on a hedge, let that go up took some profit, looked for price to return down, today it went as low as 197, then i put my second hedge in at 1205, long, if prices falls down to 182 and long isnt activated, im zero loss with gain, as it happens i am activated, so i will wait for big move one direction, close and start process over its not...
defending ur own stupidity seem like a stupid thing to do?
  • #25,060
  • Apr 8, 2015 8:16pm Apr 8, 2015 8:16pm
so ya, Oanda changing their leverage soon so i cant put put my money where my mouth is...but anyway just take this with a pince of salt.

current USA data is pointing to a robust recovery, with a stable employment rate and a stable growth.

yes there march was a major disappointment(weather?) but overall data so far is looking good, not great, but good.

so what does good data means? USA is still out growing most developing countries and Euro even with just a "Good" and with Oil price swinging ever lower, and with Iran joining in with the global oil market. the inflation rate will be ever lower.

Good Usa growth plus low inflation combine with non stop influx of credit, point to a market that investors dare to seek higher return with higher risk investment which is not good for Gold.

so going long to mid term(end of 2015?), the Gold price would be projected to go down. i am aiming for at least a USD1100 per ounce range.

Guys, dont forget that USA is having more job then ever, MORE JOB CREATED IN USA THIS YEAR THEN EVER!
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