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  • #16,721
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:16am Sep 30, 2014 3:16am
Is it just me seeing this head and shoulders?
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  • #16,722
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:18am Sep 30, 2014 3:18am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} USD has gone parabolic... Gold / Oil may be giving an advance warning We all know what happens to parabolas... This is a major news week... Keep it tight!
No idea on what you are trying to tell. could you please explain what happens if its a parabolic in USD.
  • #16,723
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:23am Sep 30, 2014 3:23am
Quoting Pipshifter
Is it just me seeing this head and shoulders? {image}



Yes i see in it but there also is an inverted one on the 15 minute....i think the invert will make the right shoulder on the 30 minute. From my understanding the right shoulder needs to be a tad higher then the left
  • #16,724
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:26am Sep 30, 2014 3:26am
Quoting AnilLonely
{quote} No idea on what you are trying to tell. could you please explain what happens if its a parabolic in USD.
Google is your best friend. With a little effort. You will not only save others their time, but also educate yourself.
  • #16,725
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:29am Sep 30, 2014 3:29am
Quoting rythmrig
{quote} Yes i see in it but there also is an inverted one on the 15 minute....i think the invert will make the right shoulder on the 30 minute. From my understanding the right shoulder needs to be a tad higher then the left
neckline 1218.50? if price goes up and formation is completed
  • #16,726
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:31am Sep 30, 2014 3:31am
Quoting AnilLonely
{quote} No idea on what you are trying to tell. could you please explain what happens if its a parabolic in USD.
here you go,
a storybook in pictures:

Tulip Mania:
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Nasdaq Tech Bubble:
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Silver:
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DX:
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,727
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:33am Sep 30, 2014 3:33am
There is patterns everywhere This chart i done a few hours ago
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  • #16,728
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:50am Sep 30, 2014 3:50am
H&S are only useful to spot the end of a trend. In consolidation they generally don't mean a lot.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,729
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:00am Sep 30, 2014 4:00am
Quoting Matts Micro
H&S are only useful to spot the end of a trend. In consolidation they generally don't mean a lot.
Spot them line them up with some harmonics and look for probability.
  • #16,730
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:16am Sep 30, 2014 4:16am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} here you go, a storybook in pictures: Tulip Mania: {image} {image} Nasdaq Tech Bubble: {image} Silver: {image} DX: {image}
You are comparing DX on the lower time frames with NQ and silver on the higher time frames... DXY hasn't gone parabolic on the higher time frames, its only just breaking out of a multi year consolidation.

It should hit 88s (2010 highs) at least, like I said don't fade breakouts guys, the R/R is just terrible.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #16,731
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:17am Sep 30, 2014 4:17am
All week I like fool shorted gold. All week I saw dollar strengtening against euro, aud, gbp... So i wait for gold to bust a good move aftersilver down.

Also you can see, that forex is worse than stocks, you can earn only then something is going with dollar... Sad but true.
  • #16,732
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:21am Sep 30, 2014 4:21am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} You are comparing DX on the lower time frames with NQ and silver on the higher time frames... DXY hasn't gone parabolic on the higher time frames, its only just breaking out of a multi year consolidation. It should hit 88s (2010 highs) at least, like I said don't fade breakouts guys, the R/R is just terrible.

thats a weekly time frame, and yes you are right

but parabolics are time frame agnostic... any sustained move cannot be parabolic on any time frame

a retracement is in order if this move has any real legs in the long term... regarding when... its anyones guess

im not suggesting that it will drop to new lows, if you look at nasdaq now, its all new all time highs...

i didnt even bother putting up a 30 year monthly chart of gold... you can do that for yourself... speaking of parabolic moves...

moreover, I wasnt trying to call a top in DX...I was just illustrating (to the person who asked) what the implications of a parabolic move are by showing examples...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,733
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:30am Sep 30, 2014 4:30am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} thats a weekly time frame, and yes you are right but parabolics are time frame agnostic... any sustained move cannot be parabolic on any time frame a retracement is in order if this move has any real legs in the long term... regarding when... its anyones guess im not suggesting that it will drop to new lows, if you look at nasdaq now, its all new all time highs... i didnt even bother putting up a 30 year monthly chart of gold... you can do that for yourself... speaking of parabolic moves... moreover, I wasnt trying to call a top in DX...I...

I'm not arguing that there won't be any retracements on the lower time frames, I said the R/R is terrible because higher time frames indicate a breakout thats still in its infancy, dollar strength could last for years.

This could move to 88 before you get a sizeable retracement, and it won't necessarily retrace to 85s again.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #16,734
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:37am Sep 30, 2014 4:37am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} I'd only risk going short the dollar or long gold if I see a reversal on those crosses, but I see nothing now. Its clear blue skies for USD/JPY and the EUR looks set to revisit 1.28 (weak support), followed by 1.22. Could get ugly for dollar shorts soon.

We are at 1.26 now, still long way to go...
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #16,735
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:37am Sep 30, 2014 4:37am
some long here @ 1210
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #16,736
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:56am Sep 30, 2014 4:56am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} I'm not arguing that there won't be any retracements on the lower time frames, I said the R/R is terrible because higher time frames indicate a breakout thats still in its infancy, dollar strength could last for years. This could move to 88 before you get a sizeable retracement, and it won't necessarily retrace to 85s again.
~86.6 would be an obvious target for the DX for this leg of the breakout, its the 127% fib of the July 2013-May 2014 down swing, and as we approach that level, this up move is starting to look stretched...

I disagree with you regarding the magnitude of the retracement... My view is that it may go lower than the numbers you suggest, Im not an Elliot Wave expert, but I think the principal suggests that Wave 1's usually retrace a minimum of 61.8% of the move... which would put it at ~81.8... but time will tell

However, I am, and have been, and long term USD bull, and I agree that in the years to come, USD will be much higher and this move is in its infancy
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,737
  • Sep 30, 2014 5:02am Sep 30, 2014 5:02am
Hmmm, I am keen to see what Gold Bullish Supporters would say about the latest price drop this last hour..
  • #16,738
  • Sep 30, 2014 5:05am Sep 30, 2014 5:05am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} ~86.6 would be an obvious target for the DX for this leg of the breakout, its the 127% fib of the July 2013-May 2014 down swing, and as we approach that level, this up move is starting to look stretched... I disagree with you regarding the magnitude of the retracement... My view is that it may go lower than the numbers you suggest, Im not an Elliot Wave expert, but I think the principal suggests that Wave 1's usually retrace a minimum of 61.8% of the move... which would put it at ~81.8... but time will tell However, I am, and have been,...

EW doesnt work imo, I only look at pure price action and S/R, and its worked tremendously well for me thus far.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #16,739
  • Sep 30, 2014 5:14am Sep 30, 2014 5:14am
Quoting wibie g
Hmmm, I am keen to see what Gold Bullish Supporters would say about the latest price drop this last hour..
Well, it fell.

What else can someone say?
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #16,740
  • Sep 30, 2014 5:24am Sep 30, 2014 5:24am
Quoting wibie g
Hmmm, I am keen to see what Gold Bullish Supporters would say about the latest price drop this last hour..

Last day of sep.... rock bottom....

Whatever goes down, comes up.....
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