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  • #16,701
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:35am Sep 29, 2014 9:35am
Nothing on oil/gold correlation. But here is a tool I use a lot showing strong daily inverse correlation between gold & usdjpy: http://www.forexticket.com/en/tools/01-01-correlation. I like to use correlation analysis a lot to determine a possible turning point. Yen pairs are consolidating and look ready to retrace.
  • #16,702
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:55am Sep 29, 2014 9:55am
Quoting jampony
Nothing on oil/gold correlation. But here is a tool I use a lot showing strong daily inverse correlation between gold & usdjpy: http://www.forexticket.com/en/tools/01-01-correlation. I like to use correlation analysis a lot to determine a possible turning point. Yen pairs are consolidating and look ready to retrace.


Cheers. Yah I use multiple correlations as well, normally just by sight and the "feel" but here is another good tool:
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation

I may have a few answers soon with WTI anyway as the hourly is making its first close above a 67 day (24hr day) TL.

Edit: actually 2nd time, it broke Friday too.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,703
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:57am Sep 29, 2014 9:57am
See Here Please maybe Help you http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/XAUUSD
Belive & Achieve
  • #16,704
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:02am Sep 29, 2014 10:02am
Quoting TemplarFx
See Here Please maybe Help you http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/XAUUSD

Yah unfortunately it doesn't have WTI on the chart though (that I can see anyway).
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,705
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:12am Sep 29, 2014 10:12am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Cheers. Yah I use multiple correlations as well, normally just by sight and the "feel" but here is another good tool: http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation I may have a few answers soon with WTI anyway as the hourly is making its first close above a 67 day (24hr day) TL. Edit: actually 2nd time, it broke Friday too.

Hi Matts

there is a long standing, and well documented inverse relationship between the commodity complex (in general) and interest rates (read: USD)

it makes sense if you consider that, commodities in general are NOT an interest generating asset class, therefore, as interest rates drop, and the USD falls in value, the commodity complex must inflate in order to retain its relative value. Conversely, as USD becomes stronger, and delivers a higher yield, the commodity complex deflates. In essence, GOLD and OIL "should" move in the same direction...

This relationship is clearly evident if you pull up weekly price data going back several decades...although the recent stimulus programs by the FED and other central banks has distorted this relationship to some extent... I am sure that in due time it will normalize

With that said, I am not sure how easy or difficult it would be to map the price relative relationship between GOLD and WTI/BRENT for short term movements, because these two markets are driven by very different fundamentals, and seasonal patterns.

If you find a robust relationship, I hope you will share it here, I would be very interested in learning about this.

I hope this helps

Cheers
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,706
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:16am Sep 29, 2014 10:16am
No trading today. Was just sitting on side line and watched market.
  • #16,707
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:26am Sep 29, 2014 10:26am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Hi Matts there is a long standing, and well documented inverse relationship between the commodity complex (in general) and interest rates (read: USD) it makes sense if you consider that, commodities in general are NOT an interest generating asset class, therefore, as interest rates drop, and the USD falls in value, the commodity complex must inflate in order to retain its relative value. Conversely, as USD becomes stronger, and delivers a higher yield, the commodity complex deflates. In essence, GOLD and OIL "should" move in the same direction......

Cheers DHT. It's pretty obvious about Gold movements and IR but the terms you put it in makes a lot of sense and I haven't thought about it in that way before.

The seasons and fundies is what makes this whole correlation business tricky and to map it out would be quite a task I think. The best sort of information is experience imo and so I think from here I will be watching oil just to see what conclusions, if any I can deduce. If I spot anything noteworthy I will post it up for sure, as any opinions I can get on it will be good for thought stimulation.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,708
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:38am Sep 29, 2014 10:38am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Cheers DHT. It's pretty obvious about Gold movements and IR but the terms you put it in makes a lot of sense and I haven't thought about it in that way before. The seasons and fundies is what makes this whole correlation business tricky and to map it out would be quite a task I think. The best sort of information is experience imo and so I think from here I will be watching oil just to see what conclusions, if any I can deduce. If I spot anything noteworthy I will post it up for sure, as any opinions I can get on it will be good for thought...
good luck!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,709
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:20am Sep 29, 2014 11:20am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} good luck!
Thnx.

This is what I noticed the other night. It seems Gold and WTI tend to share their tops and bottoms around the same time. It was why I was interested in the correlation today as WTI may be on a trend reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WTI vs XAU.jpg Size: 377 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,710
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:34am Sep 29, 2014 11:34am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Thnx. This is what I noticed the other night. It seems Gold and WTI tend to share their tops and bottoms around the same time. It was why I was interested in the correlation today as WTI may be on a trend reversal. {image}
USD has gone parabolic... Gold / Oil may be giving an advance warning We all know what happens to parabolas... This is a major news week... Keep it tight!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,711
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:57am Sep 29, 2014 11:57am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} USD has gone parabolic... Gold / Oil may be giving an advance warning We all know what happens to parabolas... This is a major news week... Keep it tight!
Indeed, it seemed Thursday there was a shift in the market possibly hinting of what's to come. Good advise, it is that time of month when anything can happen and it's best just to stay out of her way if possible.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #16,712
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:07pm Sep 29, 2014 9:07pm
looking at markets gold should go up. I have big long position from 1216 sl 1210.
  • #16,713
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:10pm Sep 29, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} USD has gone parabolic... Gold / Oil may be giving an advance warning We all know what happens to parabolas... This is a major news week... Keep it tight!
Did you ever observe my Golden Seasons Chart & Dark Seasons for Crude?
Hello World!
  • #16,714
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:10pm Sep 29, 2014 10:10pm
Unless D1 Candle of Gold closes green above Weekly Pivot ($1219.74), I suggest we avoid open Buy position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDDaily.png Size: 33 KB
  • #16,715
  • Sep 30, 2014 12:59am Sep 30, 2014 12:59am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Did you ever observe my Golden Seasons Chart & Dark Seasons for Crude?
i dont think that I have... can you post again?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,716
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:35am Sep 30, 2014 1:35am
Gold MOMO

While GOLD has not started moving north (yet), the downside momentum has clearly slowed down in the last few days.
For those who use indicators heavily, this is evident on a variety of them; I have just used my two favorite ones here for convenience: ADX 13 and MACD 12/26/9

A slowdown in momo is required before a move in the opposite direction, much the same way as a car needs to slow down in order to make a U turn...
therefore, things look like they may be lining up for the bulls... for now...

trade safe!

Daily Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD Daily 9.30.14.png Size: 42 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,717
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:37am Sep 30, 2014 1:37am
Good Morning!

Today's S/R Levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
AUDUSD
USDJPY
GOLD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7769249

EURO PINK
CABLE PINK
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #16,718
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:02am Sep 30, 2014 2:02am
hello everyone and good morning (",)
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #16,719
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:18am Sep 30, 2014 2:18am
Quoting lorix
hello everyone and good morning (",)
morning
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16,720
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:11am Sep 30, 2014 3:11am
morning every one, specially CT, I have been following this thread for long and has helped me a lot
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