XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

there is another called "only gold" where ppl also comment silver

Silver prices likely to re-test $19.60 level.

Is Gold heading back below $1300 mark ?
Would ideally wait for a break below 38.2% Fib. retracement level support before initiating fresh short position for a downside target of $1290.

Year-long consolidation in Gold prices should end soon. A strong trend period should follow once the symmetrical triangle is resolved in one direction. Volatility has decreased on weekly scale and this increased the likelihood of high volatility period in the following weeks/months. Boundaries of the consolidation stand at 1,270 and 1,360 levels. Breakout above 1,360-1,400 area will push gold price higher towards 1,525 levels. Breakdown below 1,250-1,270 support area will result in another downtrend towards 1,150 levels.

H4

Let the gold be capped.

Found some really good support around that 19.30 level
Looking for a rally back towards 20.00

In spite of the vagaries of the Forex market, I have some good news. I've closed all positions and have made a profit of 22.5% of my balance at the start of this week. So one can certainly make money in Forex though it can be a painful learning experience. Qualities such as discipline, humility, cunning, courage, patience, numeracy, planning, composure have to be brought to the arena. If these are not innate, they can be acquired if one perseveres.

I intend to supplement my income with Forex trading and I know once one has experience, this is a legitimate lucrative business that has the capability of enabling the skilled trader to make substantial profit, though it is difficult.

I have resolved to climb this hill of learning because I know when I reach the top I will enjoy the crests and peaks of success. Have a happy weekend one and all.

The silver markets as you can see tried to rally during the course of the week, but found far too much in the way of resistance at the $20.00 handle. We ended up forming a shooting star which of course is interesting, as it is a very negative sign.We believe that the shooting star signifies that the market is ready to fall and test the $19.00 handle again.This is been an area of significant support, so it will be interesting see what happens next.. With that being said, it’s almost impossible to ignore the fact that we could be trying to form a descending triangle. This would be a massive one, and what has caught our attention is that a break below the bottom of this triangle measures for a move to roughly $13.00. Why that’s important is that on the longer-term charts, that is an area where you would anticipate seeing support. Because of this, we feel that the market could very well be getting ready to break down. If it does, this could be a very ugly move as far as silver is concerned.

On the other hand, we could get a supportive candle at the $19.00 level, and that of course would have us buying as we believe the market would then turn around and head back towards the $22.00 level, or the top of the most recent consolidation area. Because of this, we feel that the market is probably one that you need to let do its thing first, at least before placing any type of longer-term trade with a significant amount of money. That being said though, if we do get the aforementioned break down, we are not only short of this market, but we are aggressively so and probably would short the market every time it bounce, based upon the fact that there is such a significant downtrend in effect. Because of this, we are going to be patient and wait for the market to tell us what to do, not the other way around.

Dedicated to All

Gold broke below the weak ascending weekly support line but is holding above the descending weekly trendline that dates back to the October 2012 high and is sitting at weekly RSI support. On the daily chart, gold stopped at $1,262, the 61.8% Fibonacci and descending RSI support. A break below that targets the 78.6% Fibonacci at $1,227.


Gold weekly chart



Gold daily chart

What is the fibo settings on MT4 so doesn't just display the percentages but also the prices of the levels?

I don't use MT4. I trade directly using my broker's (Interactive Brokers) trading application (TWS) and I use the free DailyFX PowerCharts which are based on NetDania but all chart elements are saved plus you can store/apply templates.

I also use the Forex Factory market charts -- useful for drawing trendlines for casual charting when you're not actively trading. Sometimes looking relatively naked charts can give you a better perspective without a self-imposed bias.

Since 10 days i am fighting with down trend, dont know how long i can withstand this fall. I have just added a short with s/l of 1275 and t/p of 1250. Am i on the track or any corrections are to be done. Please suggest me friends.

Why did you personally (not someone else's opinion) choose $1,275 and $1,250? If those levels made sense based on your system, then trust your own judgment and stick to them. If you want some independent analysis of your system, then post a chart and explain your levels.

Fundamentally, the recent ceasefires have decreased the appeal of gold and silver as a safe haven and has significantly lowered the price of oil. The other side of that coin is any flare-up could see an immediate reversal in these commodities. Similarly, if Draghi does announce a Euro easing program during tomorrow's ECB press conference then gold and silver are likely to rise quickly, whereas failure to announce easing as expected will have the opposite effect. Either way, gold and silver are likely to be active movers tomorrow.

Beyond that, I don't know your level of trading experience and only you know your trading style. If you are actively trading using actual money, you have (or should have) spent several years refining your strategy. If you're still paper trading, then find a system that appeals to you and keep exacting notes for every trade so you know what, and more importantly, why each trade either worked out or didn't because the time frame you trade in and what you consider to be acceptable risk will render most people's advise useless to you.

However, if you are fishing around for ideas to tweak your system with and would like some generic advice, I find gold generally responds well to Fibonacci levels when moving according to market forces (as opposed to being manipulated just prior to new market sessions for example) and I use RSI as a momentum indicator and MACD for trend verification. If you find the charts I and others have posted useless than our style is probably incompatible with yours.

The one universal piece of advice you should follow, however, is to always cut your losses and lock-in partial profits. It is far better to exit too early and re-enter than hold onto a losing trade or see profit you could have taken disappear and turn into a loss. The corollary to that is: If in doubt, get out.

Other systems you may prefer that many traders have success with are range trading/breakout strategies using prior highs and lows as entry and exit points as most FOREX and commodities will eventually retest prior levels, first consolidating then breaking out to new levels. At the other end of the spectrum, a noteworthy member, Beeb, who now works for Coghlan Capital, eschewed all forms of horizontal measurements and was very successful using solely Andrews Pitchforks and parallels. Another member, Davit, though he doesn't trade commodities, has refined a counter-trend Bollinger Band/moving average/RSI & William's Percentage system which he reports to have great success with, though I suspect the system likely works better in sideways-moving markets.

If you have the funds I recommend trading over longer time frames as volatility increases with shorter time frames and you can lose all your profits getting repeatedly stopped out despite being correct in your overall analysis. If you are basing your price levels and directional bias on daily or weekly charts for example, then don't be trading hourly movements. The longer the time frame you use, the less you'll be affected by price spikes.

I hope you found some of that useful. If not, post a chart so we can have a better idea of why you're choosing the levels you did and perhaps make suggestions you'll find more useful.

1280 to 1200 and reverse 1305