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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #121
  • Edited 8:22pm Apr 22, 2014 6:40am | Edited 8:22pm
Tuesday April 22, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1294.24 and 1288.95. Notice how the Lower Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone on the 4 Hour @1288.95 closely matches the Lower Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone on the 8 Hour @1288.23. Also, notice how the Upper Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone on the 4 Hour @1294.24 closely matches the Upper Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone on the Day @1294.03.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1292.39 and 1288.23.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1294.03 and 1280.37.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1300.44 with Demand @1272.51.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1291.20 with Demand @1286.68.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1290.48 with Demand @1287.77.
On the Day, the Lower Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone now reads 1280.62.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, Demand is now @1286.65.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1290.34, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1290.34.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1290.55, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1290.55.
On the 8 Hour, the Retracement Level now reads 1288.70.
On the Day, the Upper Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone now reads 1293.85.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market indicates a Bullish Bias above 1278.25. The market becomes Bullish above 1280.78.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1290.48 and 1280.03.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1280.62 with Demand @1272.81. The Day holds a Bearish Bias below 1285.18.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1300.44 with Demand @1272.44. The Week holds a Bearish Bias below 1305.16.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1280.78 with Supply @1283.56.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1290.48 and 1280.03.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1285.18 and 1280.62.
On the Week, the market remains unchanged.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1285.59 and 1273.12.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1281.27 with Supply @1288.33.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1285.18 and 1280.62.
The Week remains unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-3).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-4).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-5).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-6).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-8).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-9).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 22-04-2014 (44-10).PNG Size: 27 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #122
  • Apr 22, 2014 6:43am Apr 22, 2014 6:43am
Quoting shaban010
Jack , are you OK ?
Yes, thanks, I'm doing great.

Just took a long weekend off.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #123
  • Apr 22, 2014 6:21pm Apr 22, 2014 6:21pm
hey jack, when is the webinar ?
  • #124
  • Apr 22, 2014 8:28pm Apr 22, 2014 8:28pm
Quoting tripr
hey jack, when is the webinar ?
Hi tripr,

I have scheduled 4 webinars starting next week.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #125
  • Edited 5:24pm Apr 23, 2014 5:17am | Edited 5:24pm
Wednesday April 23, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1283.23 with Supply @1287.27.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1289.74 and 1278.43.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bullish above 1284.83 on the Day and Bearish below 1300.44 on the Week.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1284.83 with Supply @1293.03.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1300.44 with Demand @1272.44.

Chart #2

Notice the close proximity of the Supply Levels on the 4 Hour @1290.03, 8 Hour @1291.25 and Day @1293.00.
On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1286.28. The market becomes Bearish below 1286.28 and Bullish above 1287.90 with Supply @1290.03.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1283.98. The market becomes Bearish below 1283.98 and Bullish above 1286.82 with Supply @1291.25.

The Active Consolidation Zone described above remains in effect (see explanation, Chart #1).
On the Day, the market remains Bullish above 1284.83 with Supply @1293.00. Notice that Demand now reads 1277.84.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1285.04, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1285.04.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1283.96, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1283.96.

The Active Consolidation Zone is no longer in effect since on the Day, the market has entered the Passive Consolidation Zone.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1280.68. The market becomes Bearish below 1280.68 and Bullish above 1284.83.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1286.28 and 1282.10.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1283.98 and 1281.02.

We have a new Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1300.44 on the Week and Bullish above 1283.51 on the Day.
On the Day, the market is now Bullish above 1283.51 with Supply @1291.68.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1280.86. The market is Bullish above 1284.11 with Supply @1288.24.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1283.98 and 1281.02.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1280.68. The market is Bullish above 1283.51 with Supply @1291.68.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1284.11 with Supply @1288.24.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1283.98, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1283.98.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1300.44 on the Week and Bullish above 1283.51 on the Day.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1283.51 with Supply @1291.68.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1285.70 and 1279.43.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1286.14 and 1280.79.

The Active Consolidation Zone is no longer in effect since on the Day, the market has entered the Passive Consolidation Zone.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1280.68. The market becomes Bullish above 1283.51 and Bearish below 1280.68.
The Week remains unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-1).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-5).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-10).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-13).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-14).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-16).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 23-04-2014 (45-18).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #126
  • Apr 23, 2014 5:29am Apr 23, 2014 5:29am
Quoting jackeollio
Wednesday April 23, 2014 Chart #1 On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1283.23 with Supply @1287.27. On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1289.74 and 1278.43. We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bullish above 1284.83 on the Day and Bearish below 1300.44 on the Week. On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1284.83. On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1300.44. {image}
nice chart Jack with nice explanation too! keep up the good work
  • #127
  • Apr 23, 2014 5:30am Apr 23, 2014 5:30am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} nice chart Jack with nice explanation too! keep up the good work
Many thanks. Much appreciated.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #128
  • Edited 5:26pm Apr 24, 2014 5:25am | Edited 5:26pm
Thursday April 24, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1279.84, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1279.84.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1280.37, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1279.84.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1277.52. The market becomes Bullish above 1283.71 and Bearish below 1277.52.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1300.44 with Demand @1272.44.

Chart #2

The market has taken out Demand Levels on all 4 timeframes.
On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1273.25, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1273.25.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1273.78, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1273.78.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1277.12, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1277.12.
On the Week, (1) the market is Bearish below 1299.03, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1299.03.

Chart #3

On the 8 Hour, the market is now Bearish below 1272.78.
On the Day, the market is now Bearish below 1276.93.
On the Week, the market is now Bearish below 1297.84.

On the Month, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1521.82 and 1263.32. The market is moving towards 1263.22.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1268.59 with Supply @1273.43.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1270.54 with Supply @1272.91.
On the Day, the Retracement Level now reads 1274.44.
On the Week, the Retracement Level now reads 1296.35.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1272.01, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1272.01.

Notice how the Retracement Level @1274.51 on the 8 Hour is above the Retracement Level @1274.44 on the Day.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1274.51, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1274.51.
On the Day, the market is Neutral between 1277.52 and 1274.44.

The Week is unchanged.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1293.13 and 1268.59. The market returns Bullish above 1293.13 and goes Bearish below 1268.59.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1295.63 and 1270.54. The market returns Bullish above 1295.63 and goes Bearish below 1270.54.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1288.69. The market returns to Neutral below 1288.69 and goes Bearish below 1274.44.
On the Week, the market remains Bearish below 1296.35. The market goes Neutral above 1296.35 and goes Bullish above 1300.44.

Chart #7

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1295.21 and 1284.64.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1295.63 and 1270.54. The market returns Bullish above 1295.63 and goes Bearish below 1270.54.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1296.35 on the Week and Bullish above 1288.69 on the Day.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bullish above 1288.69, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1288.69.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #8 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1311.68 and 1283.90.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1296.45 and 1280.67.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1296.35 on the Week and Bullish above 1288.69 on the Day.
The Day and the Week are unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-1).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-3).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-4).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-7).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-9).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-10).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-11).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 24-04-2014 (46-12).PNG Size: 25 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #129
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:48am Apr 24, 2014 5:48am
Quoting jackeollio
Thursday April 24, 2014 Chart #1 On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1279.84, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1279.84. On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1280.37, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1279.84. On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1277.52. The market becomes Bullish above 1283.71 and Bearish below 1277.52. On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1300.44. {image}
Thanks Jack! in this case, can we say that the daily support is ar 1271.73 because there is demand gap that has yet to be filled?

cheers
  • #130
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:53am Apr 24, 2014 5:53am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} Thanks Jack! in this case, can we say that the daily support is ar 1271.73 because there is demand gap that has yet to be filled? cheers
Yes, I guess you can use the term Support.

If the market manages to take out the Demand Level @1271.73, we will have a High on the Day which is the case when Supply overcomes Demand.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #131
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:03am Apr 24, 2014 6:03am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Yes, I guess you can use the term Support. If the market manages to take out the Demand Level @1271.73, we will have a High on the Day which is the case when Supply overcomes Demand.
Thanks mate
  • #132
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:14am Apr 24, 2014 6:14am
wow, silver drop 2,5%. I can start to understand your tool, awesome really helpfull. How much minimum gap in 4H chart that you take trade?
  • #133
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:24am Apr 24, 2014 6:24am
Quoting nicefirework
wow, silver drop 2,5%. I can start to understand your tool, awesome really helpfull. How much minimum gap in 4H chart that you take trade?
My filter is a minimum of 1:5 Risk/Reward Ratio for taking trades.

So for a 1000$ Risk, I must have a potential Reward of at least 5000$ before I consider entering a trade.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #134
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:33am Apr 24, 2014 6:33am
I like that R:R Jack ! how many trades on average does that translate to in a week's time in the Gold mkt. alone ?
  • #135
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:36am Apr 24, 2014 6:36am
Quoting tripr
I like that R:R Jack ! how many trades on average does that translate to in a week's time in the Gold mkt. alone ?
Not very many but they are the good trades.

Aside from being very profitable, another key advantage of using a higher RRR is that it effectively enables you to choose the longer term trades and enter the trade at the "right" time.

The main disadvantage is that it requires patience ...
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #136
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:52am Apr 24, 2014 6:52am
ah, that dreaded word...patience ! therein lies the keys to the kingdom. so, I guess you are trading off the daily/weekly time frames as opposed to the 4 and 8 hour t f's ?
  • #137
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:54am Apr 24, 2014 6:54am
Quoting tripr
ah, that dreaded word...patience ! therein lies the keys to the kingdom. so, I guess you are trading off the daily/weekly time frames as opposed to the 4 and 8 hour t f's ?
Well, not necessarily meaning that I will enter a trade on any timeframe which meets my RRR criterion.

That being said, these types of trades happen most often on the higher timeframes (i.e. timeframes >= 4 Hour).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #138
  • Apr 24, 2014 10:50am Apr 24, 2014 10:50am
Hi Jacke,

Great thread! You provide very usefull information and i am really interested by your upcoming webinar.
I have one question... How do you explain what happened this morning (market spiking up to 1294 just after a low at 1268.54??

Keep up the good work!
  • #139
  • Apr 24, 2014 11:09am Apr 24, 2014 11:09am
yes, I had the same question as price never hit any of your #'s. I've seen this a lot which has left me somewhat confused as how to interpret things as they are happening.
  • #140
  • Edited 1:25pm Apr 24, 2014 12:02pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting mausaroli
Hi Jacke, Great thread! You provide very usefull information and i am really interested by your upcoming webinar. I have one question... How do you explain what happened this morning (market spiking up to 1294 just after a low at 1268.54?? Keep up the good work!
Hi mausaroli,

You have an excellent question! But first, let me say that I am glad to hear you appreciate my thread.

Now to answer your question. You may recall in one of my previous posts that I mentioned that the application only calculates Retracement Levels when one of the two following situations occur:

1) Supply overcomes Demand, we have a Retracement Level,

2) Demand overcomes Supply, we also have a Retracement Level.

Now what happened this morning is precisely why the application calculates these Retracement Levels.

The reason is simple. When the market overcomes Supply or Demand, the market will usually retrace near the Retracement Levels calculated by the application.

Which is exactly what was expected to happen this morning shortly after Supply overcame Demand on the Week (see Chart #2 above), that is the market retraced to the Retracement Level calculated on the Week @1296.35 (see Chart #4 above).

Hope this answers your question.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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