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  • #7,221
  • Apr 16, 2014 9:16pm Apr 16, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting eklein
{quote} Hey Waleed doesnt the PA for a normal head and shoulders have to be in an uptrend for the pattern to be true .Just a queerie?
Well yes! but that is relative to the time frame...

If you see that in the recent price action we have been in an "uptrend/consolidation" (up from 1283 level) area where this pattern is on the verge of forming.

there are many ways to look at this though; some traders look at this as a "rectangle/block" trade also.

Cheers!
  • #7,222
  • Apr 16, 2014 10:06pm Apr 16, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting waleed.khan
possible Head and shoulder pattern on the hourly chart... {image}
this is not head and shoulders
  • #7,223
  • Apr 16, 2014 10:38pm Apr 16, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting sergo
{quote} this is not head and shoulders
Sure I never said it was.I said it's "possible". Plus this is not a "textbook" pattern; but I am basing it on the psychology/behavior of recent price action.

So yes it is a lose pattern; but that's why i said its "possible". Lastly as I said before there are many ways to view this; it could be a rectangle pattern trade too...
  • #7,224
  • Apr 16, 2014 10:42pm Apr 16, 2014 10:42pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Sure I never said it was.I said it's "possible". Plus this is not a "textbook" pattern; but I am basing it on the psychology/behavior of recent price action. So yes it is a lose pattern; but that's why i said its "possible". Lastly as I said before there are many ways to view this; it could be a rectangle pattern trade too...
  • #7,225
  • Apr 17, 2014 12:04am Apr 17, 2014 12:04am
The us dollar index might reverse as usdchf and usdjpy have bounced off fib levels whilst audusd is lower on the day and eurusd has stagnating and looks like it will reverse down... All of this could put pressure on gold!
  • #7,226
  • Apr 17, 2014 12:30am Apr 17, 2014 12:30am
Quoting waleed.khan
The us dollar index might reverse as usdchf and usdjpy have bounced off fib levels whilst audusd is lower on the day and eurusd has stagnating and looks like it will reverse down... All of this could put pressure on gold!
just seeking a quick opinion, in the case that you said, if I am to short usd/jpy and short XAU/usd, would that be sort of equivalent to hedging?

normally how strong is the correlation?

Cheers
  • #7,227
  • Apr 17, 2014 12:52am Apr 17, 2014 12:52am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} just seeking a quick opinion, in the case that you said, if I am to short usd/jpy and short XAU/usd, would that be sort of equivalent to hedging? normally how strong is the correlation? Cheers
Shorting Usd/jpy implies that the us dollar is going to be weaker than the yen...

Shorting Xau/usd implies that the us dollar would be stronger than gold...

Hence what you are primarily doing is that you are going both long and short on the us dollar...

They are historically inversely related!
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  • #7,228
  • Apr 17, 2014 12:59am Apr 17, 2014 12:59am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Shorting Usd/jpy implies that the us dollar is going to be weaker than the yen... Shorting Xau/usd implies that the us dollar would be stronger than gold... Hence what you are primarily playing the us dollar both long and short... They are historically inversely related! {image}
Nice!! thanks for the informative chart...I presume the blue line is USD/JPY?
If that's the case, the correlation is really strong between xau/usd and usd/jpy...wondering whether one could actually exploit the time lag between this correlation and make high probability profit...interesting research topic nevertheless
  • #7,229
  • Apr 17, 2014 1:09am Apr 17, 2014 1:09am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} Nice!! thanks for the informative chart...I presume the blue line is USD/JPY? If that's the case, the correlation is really strong between xau/usd and usd/jpy...wondering whether one could actually exploit the time lag between this correlation and make high probability profit...interesting research topic nevertheless
Yes the blue line is usdjpy

Indeed the correlation is strong; but good luck with trying to make this work intraday... It can work but not all the time!

& as we speak usdchf has broken through the 61.8% fib level and & usdjpy has reversed too and is heading south. Usd index is now losing ground and Gold will behave accordingly... (this just goes to show the reliability of this system...) But I actually blame this range bound environment for this; on other days though this way off analysing can offcourse be a good tool in making trades.
  • #7,230
  • Apr 17, 2014 1:12am Apr 17, 2014 1:12am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Yes the blue line is usdjpy Indeed the correlation is strong; but good luck with trying to make this work intraday... It can work but not all the time! & as we speak usdchf has broken through the 61.8% fib level and & usdjpy has reversed too and is heading south. Usd index is now losing ground and Gold will behave accordingly... (this just goes to show the reliability of this system...) But I actually blame this range bound environment for this; on other days though this way off analysing can offcourse be a good tool in making trades.
yeah mate...I think this might work better in trending environment though..goodluck for gold trade!
placed many sell limits starting 1307
  • #7,231
  • Apr 17, 2014 1:55am Apr 17, 2014 1:55am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} yeah mate...I think this might work better in trending environment though..goodluck for gold trade! placed many sell limits starting 1307
fingers crossed...hope we could flash down to 1260-1274 level by the end of today!

whats your tp level? GL
  • #7,232
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:01am Apr 17, 2014 2:01am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} fingers crossed...hope we could flash down to 1260-1274 level by the end of today! whats your tp level? GL
majority positions are at 1290...the rest I will just set trailing stop at $10 from price
  • #7,233
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:04am Apr 17, 2014 2:04am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} majority positions are at 1290...the rest I will just set trailing stop at $10 from price
Todays talks are going to be the catalyst... If russia fully complies and guarantees no further intervention then the market is going down!
  • #7,234
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:10am Apr 17, 2014 2:10am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Todays talks are going to be the catalyst... If russia fully complies and guarantees no further intervention then the market is going down!
agreed!! patiently waiting for that! haha
  • #7,235
  • Apr 17, 2014 2:29am Apr 17, 2014 2:29am
3 days for sell! and still going down?
  • #7,236
  • Apr 17, 2014 3:55am Apr 17, 2014 3:55am
technically both H4 and Daily timeframe shows bearish pennant..target around 1270...maybe quite probably not today...but daily volume seems to be dying...
you can put a sell stop below this price, when it falls, I have a feeling it's gonna fall with big momentum just like 2 days ago...

Also, all SMAs act as resistance...you can put sell limit at each SMAs...slowly build up position...

I could be completely wrong though
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  • #7,237
  • Apr 17, 2014 4:21am Apr 17, 2014 4:21am
Quoting Polaris4dy
technically both H4 and Daily timeframe shows bearish pennant..target around 1270...maybe quite probably not today...but daily volume seems to be dying... you can put a sell stop below this price, when it falls, I have a feeling it's gonna fall with big momentum just like 2 days ago... Also, all SMAs act as resistance...you can put sell limit at each SMAs...slowly build up position... I could be completely wrong though {image} {image}
Yes I agree... but there are a few things to consider..volume could be dying due to long weekend...big traders away! Plus the euro is pulling away higher...that is a sign for concern...as is the usd index still lower...

hence one has to be extra careful....this market will not let one take easy pips!
  • #7,238
  • Apr 17, 2014 7:15am Apr 17, 2014 7:15am
zigzag between 1291-1311 with end 1302 can happen, and dayclose 1302... but İ will be waiting for up move...
  • #7,239
  • Apr 17, 2014 7:57am Apr 17, 2014 7:57am
with things getting better in the US gold should be down from here. only event can push gold up is what Russia does.
  • #7,240
  • Apr 17, 2014 8:15am Apr 17, 2014 8:15am
Quoting goldfinger
with things getting better in the US gold should be down from here. only event can push gold up is what Russia does.
Yeah, jobless numbers are the lowest in last few years and gold is doing nothing
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