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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #32,741
  • Feb 21, 2014 11:48am Feb 21, 2014 11:48am
hd- in the time daily
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  • #32,742
  • Feb 21, 2014 12:14pm Feb 21, 2014 12:14pm
Anyone thinking to short gold targeting 1296-1294?
  • #32,743
  • Edited 1:21pm Feb 21, 2014 12:18pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting adamjn
{quote} It is an inverse H&S. Also the bull flag channel has broken, and it is also looking like a wedge, so 3 points to be bullish...
No, it isn't. Price action must lead into the first shoulder whereas in this case it reverses into the first shoulder, and volume must be less in the head than in the first shoulder whereas the opposite happened in this instance.

Unless there is a significant gain in price before the end of the day, gold will end this week in a doji or spinning top following a bullish long-day candle right at the 23.6% retracement (or 27.2% extension from my previous weekly chart) which is also the April low last year. These are the technical requirements that signal a reversal; though with RSI indicating bullish momentum I expect it will only be a pullback to $1,293 or $1,275. (I'll post a chart after the end of the trading day.)

Update: Another $5 and we'll have a continuation pattern instead, but again, we'll have to wait until the end of business today for a proper analysis.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #32,744
  • Feb 21, 2014 1:45pm Feb 21, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} No, it isn't. Price action must lead into the first shoulder whereas in this case it reverses into the first shoulder, and volume must be less in the head than in the first shoulder whereas the opposite happened in this instance. Unless there is a significant gain in price before the end of the day, gold will end this week in a doji or spinning top following a bullish long-day candle right at the 23.6% retracement (or 27.2% extension from my previous weekly chart) which is also the April low last year. These are the technical requirements...

It is mate And it has played off just like I planned In my plan, volume doesn't matter, what matters is the price action. And this went down, formed a shoulder, then made a lower low, then back up, and down again to form the right shoulder.

Also, look at the daily, it will continue up a bit more. Inside bars...

It will continue up to 1350-56 then fall, thats how I am hoping it to play out, and it looks pretty convincing at the moment.
insideBars==boss
  • #32,745
  • Feb 21, 2014 2:59pm Feb 21, 2014 2:59pm
Typical Friday fake out move. Still looks weak and probably going to touch 1300 min, 1270 very possible.
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  • #32,746
  • Feb 21, 2014 11:26pm Feb 21, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting Ck87
Typical Friday fake out move. Still looks weak and probably going to touch 1300 min, 1270 very possible. {image}
Interesting debate over the last few posts. Much better than it has been all week.
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Money Makes Money
  • #32,747
  • Feb 22, 2014 2:08am Feb 22, 2014 2:08am
HI
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  • #32,748
  • Feb 22, 2014 2:39am Feb 22, 2014 2:39am
Quoting KADC
{quote} No, it isn't. Price action must lead into the first shoulder whereas in this case it reverses into the first shoulder, and volume must be less in the head than in the first shoulder whereas the opposite happened in this instance. Unless there is a significant gain in price before the end of the day, gold will end this week in a doji or spinning top following a bullish long-day candle right at the 23.6% retracement (or 27.2% extension from my previous weekly chart) which is also the April low last year. These are the technical requirements...
what are yr technical opinion? Is there posible to the pull back under 1300 next week? Kitco survey next week is bullish.
  • #32,749
  • Edited 4:26am Feb 22, 2014 3:39am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting kasra79
HI {image}
That's a convincing inverse head and shoulders but volume didn't increase leaving the last shoulder so I might go with a more conservative measure of the head from the initial entry from the neck which places the extension at roughly $1,360 which was the October high, [revised] but your technical measure coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci from the August high which was also the September bounce so you're probably right and the area in between may become a brief consolidation zone.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #32,750
  • Feb 22, 2014 4:21am Feb 22, 2014 4:21am
Quoting namaus
{quote} what are yr technical opinion? Is there posible to the pull back under 1300 next week? Kitco survey next week is bullish.
I don't find Kitco a particularly useful resource as their articles and interviews range from very to extremely bullish. If you're investing, fine, I agree that gold (and any other finite resource) will continue to increase in value over currency (Bitcoin notwithstanding), but if you're trading then you need a more flexible perspective.

I closed my charts so I won't be posting one right now, but gold ended with a spinning top candle (indecision) and the week ended with a doji just under the weekly 23.6% extension from the 2012 high of $1,325 which is a technical reversal indication. RSI is bullish so a pull back is more likely than a total reversal if price does go down. Gold options expire on the 25th and futures on the 26th so I'd expect a decline going into Tuesday then turn higher later Wednesday.

A pull back to $1,300(ish) puts us on top of the long term descending trend line from 2011, but there's support just above that around yesterday's low of $1,307, minor support at $1,293(ish), and $1,278(ish) is the January high and rising channel support from the December low which would be the optimal pull back.

On the other hand, if gold breaks above $1,325 then forget about a pull back and look instead to the October high around $1,360.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #32,751
  • Feb 22, 2014 6:04am Feb 22, 2014 6:04am
"As a graduate student at the London School of Economics I was
taught that stock markets were efficient. Broadly this means that all
outstanding information about companies is built into their share
prices- i.e., they are always fairly valued. This sad fact was hammered
home to students with a series of studies demonstrating that stock
market brokers and analysts, people with the very best information,
fared no better in their stock market picks than a monkey drawing a
name from a hat or a man throwing darts at the pages of the Wall
Street Journal

The first implication of the so-called efficient markets
theory is that there is no sure way to make money in the stock market
other than trading on inside information."

Lewis Michael, The liars poker
  • #32,752
  • Feb 22, 2014 3:08pm Feb 22, 2014 3:08pm
Hi everybody. I am a longtime reader of forexfactory. Just joined today. Ignored a great buy call from xtrade, will not do it again. Unfortunately I am short gold 0.25 @ 1292ish trying to pick tops ( bad idea) since 13 february. Just hoping gold to correct to 1300 to close my shorts.
Silver strong resistance at 21.95.
  • #32,753
  • Feb 22, 2014 3:19pm Feb 22, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} I don't find Kitco a particularly useful resource as their articles and interviews range from very to extremely bullish. If you're investing, fine, I agree that gold (and any other finite resource) will continue to increase in value over currency (Bitcoin notwithstanding), but if you're trading then you need a more flexible perspective... support from the December low which would be the optimal pull back. On the other hand, if gold breaks above $1,325 then forget about a pull back and look instead to the October high around $1,360.
Time for the big dogs to start barking. Enough of whatBanker and his type spouting confusion magic tricks, in my opinion. I agree with that last bit except I could not for the life of me work out why gold held for so long at 1312 range. g2 g20 summit
  • #32,754
  • Feb 23, 2014 7:51am Feb 23, 2014 7:51am
???
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Ro IMRAN Ro
  • #32,755
  • Feb 23, 2014 9:00am Feb 23, 2014 9:00am
futures market closed on 1326, still waiting for a leg up to 1350 for any downside movement
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  • #32,756
  • Feb 24, 2014 2:27am Feb 24, 2014 2:27am
Wake up everyone. PA has just touched 133x, the same high at 18/2.
  • #32,757
  • Feb 24, 2014 2:31am Feb 24, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
HI for short I want to see a pattern in small time frame..i dont see one for now. for long I see now a pennet and simple moving average say LONG I attach a pic with the most safe long i see now.. you always can put your stop under sma 200 in 1290 ..i bring you safe stop under sma 32 take profit on sma 300 ..(price 1390) I still have 10% of my short postion from daily ab=cd ..stop on zero. GL HF {image}

HI and nice week for you all.

8 hours chart shows that now can be small repair
I still in long...wait for take profit. meantime the price seems to be going my way...
i wait for 1390 to close the long ( just under sma300 daily chart) ...then in SMA300 (daily chart 1392) i thing 90% i will open short..i just want to see how the chart will look like if it get there.
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  • #32,758
  • Feb 24, 2014 2:32am Feb 24, 2014 2:32am
just keeps going up without any corrections.

already up 1000 pips without any particular reason
  • #32,759
  • Feb 24, 2014 2:40am Feb 24, 2014 2:40am
Quoting Halba
just keeps going up without any corrections. already up 1000 pips without any particular reason
the correction from 1332 to 1307 was nothing? the reason... nobody understands gold pricing
  • #32,760
  • Feb 24, 2014 2:42am Feb 24, 2014 2:42am
Quoting namaus
Wake up everyone. PA has just touched 133x, the same high at 18/2.
no, price did not touch that high - 1331.77 in my charts
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