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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #31,781
  • Jan 18, 2014 3:20am Jan 18, 2014 3:20am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} IMO, 1250 is still heavily defended by the bears. Just look at the numbers of rejection at that level. PS: Not vested, staying out as I am unsure of the trend at the moment.
Daily candle closed above 1250, however, still capped by weekly high at 1255. I will be excited if we have at least a day candle close above the last weekly high. At least I am convinced that we have broken out of the range.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #31,782
  • Jan 18, 2014 3:21am Jan 18, 2014 3:21am
Quoting adamjn
Long TP 1 Hit
Congras! I have been following your posts. Great stuff, keep your posts coming.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #31,783
  • Jan 18, 2014 3:24am Jan 18, 2014 3:24am
Quoting The Rhodie
With severe weakness in the YEN aganst all crosses, it may be very bullish for gold. The only problem with that is that USD is simultaneously weak and therefore many investors are moving out of bonds into metals. I presume that may mean that gold will rise in value.
Gold has a high correlation with Aud, Aud is extremely weak, will it lead to another sideway movement due to Aud and Usd weakness? What is your view? Anybody?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #31,784
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:45am Jan 18, 2014 4:45am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Gold has a high correlation with Aud, Aud is extremely weak, will it lead to another sideway movement due to Aud and Usd weakness? What is your view? Anybody?

The MAIN reason AUD and GOLD have a correlation is due solely to the LARGE mining industry and exports of physical metals such as Gold, Copper, and Silver in order.

As well as other base metals.

AUD is not doing what I expected it to be, yet again, as I mentioned due to the global location and somewhat isolation of Australia for exports, as well as tourism,
and other such FX related dealings, the government does not want a "too high AUD" as it is bad for exports and tourism which as a country they rely on.

Appx right now if I were to go to London with my USD I would get about 60 cents on the dollar. Not fun. Also when the GBP was near 2 USD Londoners came to
NYC and bought Million and multi million dollar apartments for 500k... see what I mean!

Globally, Gold will not be too affected by the price correlation to the AUD, they will keep producing and people will keep buying as they keep shipping.

The USD and Gold have a closer relationship being that futures are settled in USD. Yet, as I pointed out earlier today, they are NOT always inverse.

I do - in the future say 1 year or 2 at most expect the AUD to be above the USD in valuation.
Yet, again, countries systematically debase their currencies when they see fit.

The overnight rate for the AUD/USD long trade USED to be the highest in the FX market - making longs on large lots, even if the trade went against you,
highly profitable for holding LONG TERM ie: Months. / weeks....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,785
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:49am Jan 18, 2014 4:49am
Quoting kasra79
{quote} new chart {image}
Yes, nice precise chart mate!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,786
  • Jan 18, 2014 9:15am Jan 18, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Gold has a high correlation with Aud, Aud is extremely weak, will it lead to another sideway movement due to Aud and Usd weakness? What is your view? Anybody?
No point trading looking at AU technicals and using it to trade Gold.

Trade each as its own, after all, if you are back testing do you check other pair to see what way they moved at that stage?

My view is up to 1265 then back to 1255 area, where I will be loading more long positions on valid PA on H4 and up.
insideBars==boss
  • #31,787
  • Jan 18, 2014 9:22am Jan 18, 2014 9:22am
Howzit XAU/USD

Sir XT, some technical thinking… my 2c
I’m a Technical analyst so if I’m missing something on the Supply and Demand cycle, accept my apologies.

Gold has begun to trend since an arguable double bottom 1180/79. The subsequent appearance of the hammer on 31 Dec 2013 shows the breakout of a falling wedge and initiates the uptrend. The falling wedge target has been reach where price finds itself at present and we’re at a long time resistance support 1254/55.
This is all interesting as an inverse head and shoulders is evident with the neckline at price, it has a measured target of 1304. What is interesting is that on this occasion the 50 day eMA is under price to add some bullish momentum and some traders may want to use this level as a less aggressive entry or it could become a trailing stop loss on a break north.

Some of the more interesting obstructions to the north move include:

  1. the S/R zone1262 /1268 which also correlates with an oblique resistance which has a high probability of turning price, the bears will be interested in this TL
  2. the 38.20% fib at 1277

  1. the supply zone 1291 / 1294

The target level is 1304 and in extension the 50% retracement 1307 note if this fib level breaks target 1320 the 200 day eMA a breach of this gives in extension moves to 1337. If all of those targets are met, welcome to the beginning of the Bull Run technically...

Note the breach of 1434 opens the swing to 1590 (161,80% ext) and double bottom target of 1686.5.

In the alternate the entire thing is a bear flag and we’re going to 900

Of interest of late is the failed inverse correlation between Gold and the DXY, in fact there is some argument that the dollar and gold are strengthening in unison.

Well those are my thoughts, good trading



XAUUSD Daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #31,788
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:09pm Jan 18, 2014 12:09pm
Hello Jimmy,

Any style of trading is welcome and encouraged in this thread especially for discussion and decision making. I too use tech analysis all the time, yet I don't solely trade on it. I actually enjoy trading news and wrapping a day up within an hour or two, shutting down the PC - usu post on my mac - then watching 3rd party quotes, if I have my station up I will keep trading.

So no need for apologies, I just read your post on my phone and wanted to write you back, I agree with many of your levels and from what I could see before Your chart looks precise. Later today I can respond more in depth about the TA levels / PA and throw up a nice weekly for all!

Thanks for posting,
Until later

XT-

Quoting JimmyC
Howzit XAU/USD Sir XT, some technical thinking… my 2c I’m a Technical analyst so if I’m missing something on the Supply and Demand cycle, accept my apologies. Gold has begun to trend since an arguable double bottom 1180/79. The subsequent appearance of the hammer on 31 Dec 2013 shows the breakout of a falling wedge and initiates the uptrend. The falling wedge target has been reach where price finds itself at present and we’re at a long time resistance support 1254/55. This is all interesting as an inverse head and shoulders is evident with the neckline...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,789
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:10pm Jan 18, 2014 12:10pm
BTW - Just a suggestion - on anything above H1 I only use Simple MAs - I know the reason why people like the other's yet I have found over years the SMAs work best for SMA trading, stops support and resistance etc, on higher TFs - you might try it out.


X
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,790
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:14pm Jan 18, 2014 12:14pm
OK one more than I have to run,

I am looking at the double bottom from on your chart what would be right where JULY is and the double would be right before 2014, or at 2014, where if we look close enough some might consider it a triple.

Yet we should stick with double,

Why I like it?

Notice how the price rose substantially (+1400) after the first smack down to 1180?

Then slowly it retraced and made yet another attempt which of now has created a working 70 USD gain and the channel you have on the right,

could we hit it and break it? Sure anything is possible, is the support now stronger! HELL YEAH!

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,791
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:23pm Jan 18, 2014 12:23pm
I dont know the validity of your DTL as I cannot see where it stems from,

The range created by the so far double bottom has broken many a daily DTL already. The chart is moving sideways at the moment with no clear direction besides range as of now which should suggest up or rejection at mid point which would be appx 1300. If we use 1200 and 1400 for the smallest range.
The 50% fibo retrace of origin 1920 to low 1180 = 1550 so for longer term trading / position trading it remains a valid target.

Interesting to see that with the USD rising Gold did quite well on Friday,

Also expecting the DOW and SP to substantially CORRECT soon enough opening up or "moving money" back into gold as a spec trade for profit not just hedging or safety.

There is I believe one steep DTL which cannot last on the weekly which I will post later and after that only one possible using only two very old points of origin.

I do see people with TA constantly redrawing DTLs to suit a bearish view, while in reality when one breaks, that's it, it's GONE!!! Not let me adjust it to accommodate a new high and keep the high under.

By no means am I saying that is what you did , just pointing it out for the other readers.

Also, new DTLs can be drawn hypothetically, YET they cannot use the same ORIGIN as the prior DTL with more time under it - otherwise the would be invalid,
and with less time they are less strong.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,792
  • Jan 18, 2014 1:54pm Jan 18, 2014 1:54pm
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014...-manipulation/
  • #31,793
  • Jan 18, 2014 2:46pm Jan 18, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Greenstar
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014...-manipulation/
..finished reading. EVERYONE should read this... heavy, undeniable truth. . . thanks.
  • #31,794
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:00pm Jan 18, 2014 4:00pm
Quoting XTrade
I dont know the validity of your DTL as I cannot see where it stems from, The range created by the so far double bottom has broken many a daily DTL already. The chart is moving sideways at the moment with no clear direction besides range as of now which should suggest up or rejection at mid point which would be appx 1300. If we use 1200 and 1400 for the smallest range. The 50% fibo retrace of origin 1920 to low 1180 = 1550 so for longer term trading / position trading it remains a valid target. Interesting to see that with the USD rising Gold did...
Thank you so much for the substantial commentary, this is much appreciated. I will sleep on it and then review my charts and respond with multi TF analysis... Really great that you've taken the time, again much appreciated.

Regards,

J
  • #31,795
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:22pm Jan 18, 2014 4:22pm
What is it? I read enough already.. ?

At least provide the thread with a headline then a link - otherwise no one cares.

Just MVHO
XT-
Quoting Greenstar
{quote} ..finished reading. EVERYONE should read this... heavy, undeniable truth. . . thanks.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,796
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:23pm Jan 18, 2014 4:23pm
Any time buddy, that's what I'm here for.

It would be helpful to see where your DTL stems from on the weekly to consider validity.

I will as promised be posting weekly gold and silver TA charts before Monday.


XT-

Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Thank you so much for the substantial commentary, this is much appreciated. I will sleep on it and then review my charts and respond with multi TF analysis... Really great that you've taken the time, again much appreciated. Regards, J
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,797
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:25pm Jan 18, 2014 4:25pm
Still long from 1190 area with half position manually closed at 1250. Riding higns.

Here is 30 DAY GOLD.

Notice the cues at the bottom to the LDN FIXES and the LINE is NY SPOT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 20.png Size: 65 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31,798
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:57pm Jan 18, 2014 6:57pm
Hi XT,

I think you should show again how easy to analyze gold using 1d,2d and 3d... hehehehe

Regards,

DRT


http://i40.tinypic.com/2cmn0bk.png
  • #31,799
  • Jan 19, 2014 12:53am Jan 19, 2014 12:53am
yah, gold can fall monday and tuesday
Gold Annihilation System
  • #31,800
  • Jan 19, 2014 2:35am Jan 19, 2014 2:35am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} btw: I think you meant CRAB! not crap on your chart. I love crab eating and trading.

Crab is a beautiful animal, but not to eat .LOOL
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