XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Ohh thank you

The current move is an extension of a larger move that has continued from 6th Jan which was an inside move from 31 Dec 2013. I does not look like that gold has topped out yet and could easily go longer from 1244. That being the case, everyone is asking whether it is over. I don't think so.

Here's a chart to show the current geometry on an H4 chart...

Many people are looking to trade NFP moves, but that is really dangerous. It goes with the trend which is almost never in a straight line.

Nice clean 20 USD swing off the low before the NFP! As expected once again the number was not positive or in tune with the "ADP" number.

Unemployment slightly down but will likely come back up a bit in upcoming releases or at least stay around here back to 7.0%

Will be interesting to see if the price slides at all after noon. By the looks of right now it is suggesting higher prices for next week.

Silver had a nice day as well - back above 20.00

Hey Buddy,

Did you flatten your trades? I'm holding through to next week.

X-

Still not letting up.

It's likely there were a bunch of TPs set for under 1250 due to the last reaction to the area (that massive spike then a trading halt) still not legitimately explained.

so we got a stall in the area...

Hi XTrade,

This is how I expect it to play.My targets are 1252 and 1258.It would stop and reverse at 1258 or shoot to 1275 max to the next fibo extension.

I think it has topped out for today and this week, anyway, holding longs on 1210 and 1223, hope it gets to 1500 soon, cheers

bullshit, I dont use pivots - that was a support line I had on my charts, which was defended by asian session

Still can fall to 1200s... wait!

Short @ 1247.5, betting on double topping out. SL 1253

Good long term thinking, but what tells you that it will go that high so soon? If you hold on to a $100 SL, then maybe, but then the question begs an answer: If you are to hold on for months waiting for that possibility to bear fruit, are you not better off acknowledging the stronger position that taking a short for the same amount down is more likely? In my opinion, you missed the chance for 1500 many months back and there is some catchup you need to do to evaluate the true position of the markets or have a faceful of ketchup instead.

Consider for a moment that the FED has tried to lie its way out of a recession to the point that we now face a global collapse because of a mismanaged reserve currency. This has in turn sparked up a real test by China to implement a new reserve currency that is backed by the ... Chinese (who would have guessed?). China is in no real position to start a war with Japan because all the world is in financial trouble (and that is why people are not investing gold, but failure of it.) so for gold to climb back up to 1500 anytime soon is like expecting Santa at Easter. Good luck with your analysis, I hope you see that happen, because we will be hot on the heels of any longs in that direction with you as our financial investment messiah.

The future does not exist (as some movies like to imagine) and as such cannot be foretold by anyone on earth. To discover the future requires that the event viewer live outside of time and nobody living can do that. We only have the present to divulge the past and anticipate the destiny of a future. I stated "a future" because destiny is based entirely upon choice. Fate does not exist. Fate is saying that it is going to happen anyway at a particular point in time and nothing can be done to avoid that. To say the market is going to go to 1500 is declaring a fate of the markets that all should bow to gold alone to attain that level. Possible? Maybe. Likely? No, not in the slightest. It's more likely that all readers of this forum would win big in a lottery simultaneously, from providers worldwide.

The world no longer revolves around gold, but around Trust. Faith in currency is the only thing that makes the global economy revolve anymore and the lending of credit to that faith by the printers of that trust: reserve banks. The theory that faith is a religious experience is akin to the value of currency and nowadays there are only fiat currencies since none (I may be incorrect on that) are gold-backed. People used to trust in gold so trust in the gold-backed currencies was implicit, now it is tacit because of the divergence from that backing to make gold a commodity instead of a currency.

Bitcoin has more chance of rising $300 in a week than gold does. Bitcoin is a fiat type currency based on limited supply and trust with no physical component. The more it is trusted, the higher it is prized. The more it is prized, the higher the value of it. Gold differs in that it is a physical component that can be possessed as tactile. Bitcoin cannot be possessed, only implied. So gold can only rise as long as the physical component is being physically withdrawn from the general market by suppliers such as reserve banks and gold mines whilst the demand is rising too.

We face a situatiuon now that the demand for gold is nearing an all-time low after an all-time high price. The global market cannot afford gold prices and the employment situatiuon globally is shrinking and ther fore the gold demand follows that trend. At the same time gold mines are going broke or scaling down operations due to reduced demand because of the availability of recycled gold which means that old gold is being sold by owners who have fallen on hard times and that means a drop in price to the downside, probably as low as 1100 which is the current cost price of mined gold and possibly even lower beyond that. for centuries gold traded below $500. What we have witnessed these last 10 years is down to fear of death and market expansions and nothing else. That fear factor as removed in 2011. with the F-Factor gone we are returning to the normal range of gold which is well down to 600 - 900 an ounce with an inflation adjustment taken into account. Right now gold is still overvalued and oversupplied in direct opposition to common sense and financial fidelity.

That is my reasoning behind not going for a $300 rise assumption to $1500 /t. oz. What is yours for expecting it to do the opposite?

Proceed cautiously, I am expecting further rise next week.

Take a look at the closers! And all next weeks, high and mid impact USD news below!

Exactly the close I was looking for on Gold and silver again did pretty well!

A few quick things on your post Rhodie,

Fundamentally if the global financial state is in ruin, which in many ways it is, this would and will be positive for Gold not negative, as people look to diversify out of Fiat paper currencies, hedge against inflation, protect wealth with a tangible asset that has proven the benefit in multiplying in price while still protecting money.

Also, there already has been a fairly substantial correction in the Gold market, more so even in Silver (but that's another story altogether) - tapering has been announced and there was no major drop besides a failed attempt to hit 1180 thus far.

So looking at the correction, 1550 is only a 50% correction from 1920 to 1180. Once things begin to crumble and the weeks pass, this is a target that can easily be achieved.

BTW Yuan is still basically pegged so it's not going to become a reserve any time soon.

Xtrade,

just asking, may i know why NFP employment decreased, but unemployment rate decrease also, which both are vice versa,

how suppose the gold market react ? i confused....

it happened just like last month Aus employment claim and employment rate vice versa..

additionally - physical pm´s are an insurance against gouverment confisication

*logorrhoea on*

just remember cyprus...
many people in austria and germany woke up and thought huh who/what is next, we realize slowly that WE have to give up our wealth to
support no not greece, irland, portugal, spain, we support our banks to slave the people in this countries longer and longer to maximise
profits and have the system running as usual... even if it is on manipulated sheets of paper.

gold isn´t digital, it cannot be whiped out, gold got it´s fungiblilty since 5000years, the value falls and rise sure but you get more in return
for an ounce of gold than for every other expired paper currency and germany and austria as well saw more than one currency reformation
over the last 100 years.

Ask yourself, you find a bundle of old paper Schillings or Reichsmark how much did you get today in exchange? My Avatar for example is always
worth a minimum of 21gr. with additional numismatic bonus.

*logorrhoea off*

absolutly no offence rhodie sleep well

I have a stop at 1242 and holding them.My targets are 1252-1258 if past them 1275. 1252 1275 are fibo extensions, 1258 is a daily bollinger possible top reversal point.
When I look at eurusd I see todays move more like a pullback to d20 which probably would come down from 1.3690.If it does our Mr. Gold also possibly would drop from one of the above numbers after some choppy moves.
Have a good weekend

Look how well Pitchfork levels controlled prices on this 5 minute chart.

Hi XTrade,

Thanks for the advise. I am expecting the same, but I think such a rally in one day is a little too aggressive, while the NPF showing another Tappering in January is still possible. Remember the NPF and FOMC in December? While we had a lower NPF data, the price quickly tested the support and went north. But when the tappering really came, we dropped to 1190. If Tappering comes again in January, I think we still have a chance to see 1200-1205 again. But yes, this trade is against the main trend, so I should be cautious. The SL I currently set is 1252. If it does not hold, I will turn bullish until 1265.

Have a good weekend!

LL