I changed my view for the 2014, from bearish to bullish. The reasons are strong physical demands and inflation concerns. Tappering still affects the gold and may leads to more drop, but the strong support is seen under 1200. We may see drop to 1150 or even 1100, but every step towards downside will confronts more and more resistance as Gold becomes more attractive to many investors in 2014 while the other markets become less attractive (Bond Yield is expected to rise, Equity may close to top or another push to new high will face more pressure). However, the dollar is expected to strength due to tappering, which may impact gold but I think it should have less impact in the second half of 2014.
So my forecast was in the first half of 2014, we can see ranging between 1100-1350. The market sentiment will still remain slightly bearish or sideways in the first three months because of the tappering and US debt problem. Once the tappering finishes or close to finish, we may see price rally to 1400 or even higher, which may happened near mid 2014.
However, this is purely based on macro analysis. On the trading side, I will be more cautious with shorts especially when the price fall close to 1200. Buying will be my main trade strategy in the new year.
So my forecast was in the first half of 2014, we can see ranging between 1100-1350. The market sentiment will still remain slightly bearish or sideways in the first three months because of the tappering and US debt problem. Once the tappering finishes or close to finish, we may see price rally to 1400 or even higher, which may happened near mid 2014.
However, this is purely based on macro analysis. On the trading side, I will be more cautious with shorts especially when the price fall close to 1200. Buying will be my main trade strategy in the new year.