XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Linking this to post one for whoever want's to read it.

Looks like we are still in the range with low @ 1212 and high @ 1245-1250. Given such strong job data, the support 1212 is not broken until now, so what I think is the investors still want to see the reaction of Fed to these data and concern about current unemployment data 7.0% which is higher than the Fed's 6.5% threshold. The fear of another possible US bond default January 2014 and another government shutdown also help the gold consolidate in this range.

So considering all these facts, I change the TP of two of my shorts (currently three shorts on hand) to 1213, while keep the TP of my last short @ 1182. If the price move up to 1250 again, I will add more short targeting 1230 and SL 1261.

Why is beginning of the end of QE3 bearish for gold?

Great! Glad to hear.

I have to say this is some odd news to get that nice 30 USD swing back up...

NFP is ahead of fcast and unemployment below slightly (no surprise there)...

Because it means less capital injection into financial markets, which hurts all the markets (Bond, Equity and Commodity). It is only good to dollar.

That's part of the point of the read. In theory it should have been extremely bullish for gold.

However, the point / theory I have is that being that the market reacted in opposite form and the announcement and continuation of the program has indeed been bearish for gold, perhaps due to the MONTHS of promising that it will end "soon" and never does,
part of the fall in gold price that MAY occur when it actually is formally announced, has ALREADY been priced into the market, hence the drop in price.

Understand what I mean?

Also to "taper" off of QE will take around 9 months. It's not like the FED can just say OK were done, and stop the program. This is so that the markets don't all get skewed bonds, treasuries, gold etc.

Some feel that the tapering has already started - As I do. Although there has been no FED confirmation.

The conclusion of QE when all the bonds mature, will take years. But, the whole process has created BILLIONS of extra USD.

Which in the end I see as inflation -

In turn would support a long term bull run in gold. forget about what the price is now.

One article from Wall Street Journal

Thanks XT, sorry but I am still confused. :nerd:

Did you read the whole post?

I thought I explained in there how the Fed creates inflation by the QE program..

If you did and don't get it I'll explain it this weekend if your interested.

Do read the whole post though.

I believe what we are seeing and trading now is the fear of Tapering. Tapering is painful but gradual and I believe once it start and people get used to it, the impact of Tapering will be limited and US economy will continue well without QE. And then we will see the strong gold coming back again. However, at least before March 2014, my personal opinion is that this fear will still dominate the market.

Yeah, like the boy that cried wold more, Maybes and we'll see's.

In all honesty they probably have started the trickle out already. Just trying to drop the actual words at the right time for the markets.

Does any one here traded standard lot (100 OZ) of gold? Well i have been reading this thread and newbie but seeing the volatility behaviour in market, I decided not to get in again untill QE is announced.

I am trying to dig up some kind of explanation into these moves which actually are not restricted to Gold alone but most other USD pairs ,this is purely cosnpiracy and not factual based ,but could the FED have anticipated a strenghtening of the $ which could derail their fragile export driven recovery , and act accordingly by directly selling the $, possibly explains the moves not only after but also prior to positive US$ announcements these last 3 days. If they do announce any Taper plans , it could be the driver that will finally correct the $ strenght.They want to go into this easing with a weak dollar knowing the effects it will have.

Appreciate your effort.

If you are a newbie I STRONGLY URGE you to not even attempt trading in standards.

This game will wipe your account out faster than trading GBP/USD.

Price will probably fizzle out around here unless there is some bombshell - doubtful- out of FOMC member Evans.

Until later fellas.

Trade well,
X-

Logic is useful here:

print money=reduced currency exchange rates = reduce trust + incease in inflation = higher profit to business = more $tax = reduce deficit = increase interest rates = deficit payments increase = reduced government spending = reduced employment opportunities = print more money...

Zimbabwe government did this cycle 4 times in 10 years until currency was worth less than a single sheet of toilet paper. $500 note blew about parking lots like leaves. the next time $50000 did that, then the $5mill notes, then the 100 mill notes bought a loaf of bread. Unemployment is now 98%. No local currency, uses USD, GBP and ZAR. Cant peint own money, can't create inflation, refuses to fix policy issues that cause it all. US is the same. Policy issues are not being fixed. The policy issues are being wallpapered with $100 bills. The 2013 US$1000 is worth about a 1900 US$36.00 (http://observationsandnotes.blogspot...us-dollar.html)

The whole idea is like a dog chasing it's own tail to make it run faster. It actually spins out of control in the end because a reserve currency cannot behave that way. When reserve currency goes bad, markets lose trust. All trade is based entirely upon trust. Lie once, we belive. Twice we wonder why. 3 times we begin to ask questions of integrity, 4 times we stop believing. 5 times and ignore you, 6 times we walk away and warn others about your ways. 7 times and it's looking like you're a liar and nobody believes you. This is the fed's 4th time stage.

There is also another issue. If US does not comply with the global markets, it loses it's status as economic superpower and economy crashes. The world follows within minutes. We are constantly only 3 days from global market crash since 2011.

To make matters worse, bad policies have been made consistently and never fixed. Ever. Each generation of government just "gets on with living" without changing their ways. Where people can vote themselves more money in their pockets, they will and do. The cost is evident in Zimbabwe. How many times have you heard a new politician say: "Vote for me and I will cut taxes" or "reduce costs of..." or "Deficit is increasing and we need to fire everybody"?

You never hear these:
-Government has failed and president is stepping up to make improvements.
-Entire senate is resigning over failure to solve problems. New senate to be chosen and entire legislation system scrapped for new legal system and no case history.
-All state departments are closing down to 50% of size and budgets are being cut back 75% until we can reduce government debt to 25% of GDP maximum.
-Federal death penalty for fraud and related crime regardless of amount.
-Criminals repay stolen assests to 7 times what was stolen or face firing squad.
-Drug abuse becomes a criminal offence and face life imprisonment. Possesion of illegal drugs is 72hr to execution.
-Life is fair.
-Treating your fellow citizens with less honour than you give yourself punishable by forfeiting 25% of annual income to Government.
-90% of the nation's wealthiest people must invest 90% of their capital into the nation and recover their investment by reduced tax rates after project completion schedules.
-Poverty becomes a criminal offence and carries jail terms. State supports unemployed for maximum 2 years etc (with exceptions on medical grounds)

This is why we are failing to improve the world. Criminals rule it and they are in big business and don't care that they ruin the world. People don't know what is good for them so they vote for what they want, not what they need. Candy cane is better than whip to most. Freedom is better than discipline. Carefree better than careful.

A hungry man's stomach votes for more food and longer life, at any cost. When poverty bites, morals die a painful death. When personal freedoms win, laws become a dream: when law wins, personal freedom becomes a dream.

Have a good weekend everybody. Day is nearly over and I'm done. All attempts at making gold rally are failing. It has to fail or the price can never rise higher again. Mines must close and governments must change before we see a change in the state of the global economy. Unitl the crash, green pips to all.
followed by...

Where will it end. The large bubble represents the size of the investment in gold on this leg so far. Today's results maade some impact, but on the grand scale... how much? .

Nice weekend to you