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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #29,741
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:13pm Dec 4, 2013 7:13pm
Could this be a bear flag formation on the daily chart?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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insideBars==boss
  • #29,742
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:27pm Dec 4, 2013 7:27pm
Here are today's S/R levels for silver...
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  • #29,743
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:58pm Dec 4, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting adamjn
{quote} This looks very interesting, it would be interesting to test out and see if it performs. IMO, the move up was due to new, or so we think, smart money used the news to make a massive blast upwards, they have completed the position gathering stage and now are ready to maybe move price up a little. I was watching tick charts last night just for the fun and seen this, looks like banks trading high frequency. Looks like they where building short positions, this was just before the drop earlier today. Anyone have an explanation for it? {image}...

unmistakably an algo. I was looking for another good example but pics are actually hard to find on google:

http://fortunebrainstormtech.files.w...0992259465.gif
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,744
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:06pm Dec 4, 2013 8:06pm
Quoting The Rhodie
and yet another chart with a study and some thoughts. {image} After some consideration I wondered if this is a potential view of the market postion trades and their entry into the markets and the size of the positions. This sort of view is what we are not used to seeing at all. It may be a load of cow dung, but anyone got a better idea why we can see a regularity to the patterns that shows a chaotic system that is not so chaotic? What is chaotic is the lack of timing integration of the shapes. That makes me think that maybe there is a correlation...

I like circular trendline studies and you cicumscribed the upmove well - it's a characteristic of impulses that they travel through a circle from NW to SE or SW to NE (as in this example) and make a pivotal touch right in the centre. The subsequent correction tends to creep down along either the inside or the outside of the same circle perimeter before blasting upwards through another (usually bigger) circle. If this impulse was not the end of a corrective to the upside then the perimeter of that next circle to the NE should become evident in the coming few sessions.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,745
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:06pm Dec 4, 2013 8:06pm
Hello can someone please explain to me why is gold up even though the US had a good data?
  • #29,746
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:13pm Dec 4, 2013 8:13pm
Quoting Olu
Silver {image}

Olu

thanks for the chart. drawn like that it seems the move up was wave C of a running flat and another 3wave move down could complete the expanding ending diagonal and give closure to the move.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,747
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:06pm Dec 4, 2013 9:06pm
Quoting The Rhodie
and yet another chart with a study and some thoughts. {image}
Hi Sir Rhodie, i thought that really interesting to see you using those geometrical method, if i wanna learn how to use, where should i start if i want to study it?

At this moment, gold indicated a starter bullish sentiment.
Based on moving average of the daily graph, I consider my self put a pending order for a little BL arround 1230-1233.00
with SL 1227.50 and TP near 1245.00.
The Force is with me.. Im One With the Force..
  • #29,748
  • Dec 5, 2013 12:22am Dec 5, 2013 12:22am
Quoting Goldenshot
{quote} Hi Sir Rhodie, i thought that really interesting to see you using those geometrical method, if i wanna learn how to use, where should i start if i want to study it? At this moment, gold indicated a starter bullish sentiment. Based on moving average of the daily graph, I consider my self put a pending order for a little BL arround 1230-1233.00 with SL 1227.50 and TP near 1245.00.

To use geometrical method requires you to be thinking of possibilities that require you to study the chart fro changes that are repetitive. If you recognise those patterns then you can "see" them. If not, then there is no known way I could teach you.Geometry shows where there is a repeat in a pattern that is too similar to be random event. Best way to learn it is to to study what images I have already posted. It does use mostly the !m charts on a 50" screen.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,749
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:00am Dec 5, 2013 1:00am
Gold should have hit down near 1193 on this leg down. It stopped about 30% higher. Now that Z scope is set at 1143. I am still bearish and don't see any evidence to tell me otherwise. It should get a bit bumpy from here on down. Fib levels say this is indecision. Maybe down again for another $100 leg.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,750
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:42am Dec 5, 2013 1:42am
Down in Asia, Up in London and US session. It is likely the rhythm in those days. LOL
  • #29,751
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:03am Dec 5, 2013 2:03am
Perhaps this scenario occurs, AB = CD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd.ih1.png Size: 25 KB
Persian Gulf forever
  • #29,752
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:30am Dec 5, 2013 2:30am
Quoting Goldenshot
{quote} Hi Sir Rhodie, i thought that really interesting to see you using those geometrical method, if i wanna learn how to use, where should i start if i want to study it? At this moment, gold indicated a starter bullish sentiment. Based on moving average of the daily graph, I consider my self put a pending order for a little BL arround 1230-1233.00 with SL 1227.50 and TP near 1245.00.

hi Goldenshot, i see theRhodie has already given you some thoughts. Like he says, the geomteric and circular techniques have no methodology - you just make it up as you go along in a way and some consistencies start showing up and eventually fade away. One thing I can say from experience is that these geometries - especially circles - manifest near major turning points in the market.

for more about circles, check out FF member Kambooj - he has a thread called Circular Trendlines where he outlines his own methodology. But don't follow it blindly, these things always keep changing - but what he mentions about 'attractors' and 'repellants' fits my experience and you can see it on the Rhodie's charts. Best thing is to choose a time of day when you are really calm and peer deep into the chart in a meditative state - you will see what you see there.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,753
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:38am Dec 5, 2013 2:38am
Quoting namaus
Down in Asia, Up in London and US session. It is likely the rhythm in those days. LOL
Usually that is the case. Where the market opens it often closes within 20%. In these uncertain times though that has changed and no new study has been done to work out what the average closing price relative to the opening price principle is. So you aren't wrong in thinking that way. A day opens, puits in a high and a low and closes. It is incredibly rare that a day opens with the extreme price and closes at the opposite extreme price. I saw it once in Eur:Jpy a few weeks back. Just once. There was no previous historical record I could find where it had done that in the last 10 years.

Usually the market opens moves one way and trends opposite for the day then retraces to close higher or lower than opening price. Every day is different. A day should be measured from the Asian opening 10 mins before Tokyo opens and then closes at US PM close. The Australian sessio only really has an impact on their side of the world and has very low volume after the closing hour of US session. Never trade low volume times.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,754
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:42am Dec 5, 2013 2:42am
some information to share, this is the link

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...The_World.html
  • #29,755
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:49am Dec 5, 2013 2:49am
Quoting adamjn
{quote} This looks very interesting, it would be interesting to test out and see if it performs. IMO, the move up was due to new, or so we think, smart money used the news to make a massive blast upwards, they have completed the position gathering stage and now are ready to maybe move price up a little. I was watching tick charts last night just for the fun and seen this, looks like banks trading high frequency. Looks like they where building short positions, this was just before the drop earlier today. Anyone have an explanation for it? {image}...
Having analysed your tick chart, your analysis was opposite of what it really was. That was long orders being placed by resting orders. It is an automated process of some sort, but the irregular pattern tells me tht there was some latency and timing going on in it. without the 1 min chart to show what happened for the next 15 mins I cannot work out whether it was a bank or person activating the orders. It seems more like the pattern of a signalled entry for manual placements.

Machines are even and regular and you can see exactly how many orders are being placed by the tick depth. a fine amplitude shows a high profile trader using their reputation for better fills. This on the other hand looks like a broker gave a signal and then a few automated systems followed his siganl. Appears to be HF trades, but may not be. there's latency in there that a bank or somebody does not have. As an example of banks entering I include an image of that kind of activity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,756
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:59am Dec 5, 2013 2:59am
Quoting acidguy
is there any better investment than gold? surely the banks have been trying to supress its price and investors have left gold cause maybe the price was a bubble for stocks trading, what if stocks are topping, lets be careful but its great to see how gold reacted today. 5 years ago china had about 1trillion usd debt now its about 4 trillions and they dont wanna save more, when the market agree gold is too low, where fiat currency will be directed at?
I think you better revise that Chinese figure to about 16 trillion debt. most recent news from Zero Hedge shows it may be more than the government is telling the world. The banks' asset balance sheet has a gaping hole of 15 trillion that is not accounted for in official figures to the world. We all worry about American debt. We should be more concerned with Chinese debt. It makes the Americans economy look like an ant in comparison.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,757
  • Edited 3:20am Dec 5, 2013 3:07am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting parsfx
Perhaps this scenario occurs, AB = CD {image}
Good thinking, but your ab=cd legs are incorrect. Previous High to Last lowest point. Leg copied to the top of your pattern at next highest to show projected possibility. I edited the image to show what it should look like...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 24 KB
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,758
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:11am Dec 5, 2013 3:11am
does anybody knows any good calculator for calculating the margin required for xauusd?

thanks in advance
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #29,759
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:17am Dec 5, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Lv5758
Hello can someone please explain to me why is gold up even though the US had a good data?
End of cycle
H4 / 360
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  • #29,760
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:42am Dec 5, 2013 3:42am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Good thinking, but your ab=cd legs are incorrect. Previous High to Last lowest point. Leg copied to the top of your pattern at next highest to show projected possibility. I edited the image to show what it should look like...{image}

Thanks for the tips
Scenario happened
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd.ih1.png Size: 42 KB
Persian Gulf forever
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